Green Bay Packers(4-0) at Atlanta Falcons(2-2) (Sun. Oct. 9th, 2011 @ 8:30pm(EST.)
NFL Game Of The Week #5: Packers at Falcons
Stars Watch:
(Green Bay): QB Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers along with QB Tom Brady(Patriots) is an early favorite to win the NFL MVP Award. After the first quarter of the season he has been, simply put, the most efficient QB in the league. He has an overall QB rating of 124.6, completing 73% of his passes for 1325 yards, and has thrown 12 TDs with only 2 INTs. Last year when these two teams met in the NFC Divisional Playoff round Rodgers dissecting the Atlanta defense for 366 yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing Td, and connected on 31 passes. Atlanta didn't make any upgrades in their secondary during the off season, so look for Rodgers to have another superb outing.
(Atlanta): RB Michael Turner - The Falcons offense has always been built around Turner and the running game. Turner needs to have an outstanding game rushing for the Falcons to be successful at beating the Packers. In doing so, that will open up the play action passing game for QB Matt Ryan. In the NFC Divisional Playoff game last year he was held to 39 yards on 10 carries which put the Falcons in a lot of unfavorable matchups regarding down and distance. In the two previous matchups before that playoff game Turner had a combined 231 yards on 49 carries. Atlanta needs to keep to their identity of pounding you with Turner then catch you off guard with play action passing.
Atlanta Offense vs. Green Bay Defense: Atlanta's offense is built around a power running game and play action passing. They have gotten away from that a little bit the last couple of weeks. QB Matt Ryan is very effective at the play action passing game but not so when it comes to spread offensive play sets. The offensive line does not give him consistent time in the pocket to make down field throws or to allow the receivers to get open on deeper patterns. That is why you don't see a lot of big passing play gains from this offense. Atlanta should pound away at the Green Bay defense with Turner and keep the down and distance to go favorable to their offense. They must keep the chains moving, score TDs when they reach the red zone area, and keep that high powered Green Bay offense on the sideline as much as possible. They should also utilize TE Tony Gonzales on underneath patterns especially against the zone blitz concepts the Packers use. NT B.J. Raji and DE Ryan Pickett need to get consistent penetration. The best way to contain Turner is to gang tackle him at the line of scrimmage before he gets a head of steam going. The matchups of CB Charles Woodson and CB Tramon Williams against WR Julio Jones and WR Roddy White should be a fun battle all game long. The Packers will try to force Atlanta into 3rd and long situations then bring the zone blitz concept to create incompletions or turnovers. Something they did very well in last year's playoff game.
Atlanta Defense vs. Green Bay Offense: DE John Abraham may not play in the game because of an injury. If not, that is a huge loss for the defense. He is the Falcons most feared pass rusher and just being on the field causes the Packers to account for him every snap because of his disruptiveness. Atlanta wants to rush with only their four down lineman to pressure QB Aaron Rodgers because he is so good at picking up blitzes and finding the open man, scrambles well, and can make throws on the move. All eyes will be on the Falcons secondary who had troubles staying with the Packers receivers of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, and James Jones in last year's playoff game in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. If the Falcons can't get pressure on Rodgers with their front four it will be a long night for DBs Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. Superstar in the making at tight end for the Packers Jermichael Finley missed that game last year and most of the season with a knee injury. His presence has added another dimension to the Packers offense making them virtually impossible to stop. They also have two very good running backs in Ryan Grant and James Starks both whom are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. They are forgotten sometimes because of the Packers potent passing attack. It is pick your poison against them either cyanide or arsenic.
Key Stats:
Green Bay (NFL Rank & Yards) Atlanta (NFL Rank & Yards)
Rush Off. 13th - 109.5ypg 16th - 99.8ypg
Pass Off. 5th - 319.8ypg 11th - 260.5ypg
Rush Def. 2nd - 71.0ypg 10th - 97.2ypg
Pass Def. 28th - 335.8ypg 22nd - 275.5ypg
Total Offense: 5th 12th
Total Defense: 28th 21st
Points Per Game: 37.0ppg (1st) 22.5ppg (16th)
Key Matchups:
NT B.J. Raji (versus) Center Joe Hawley: Every time Atlanta's offense comes up to the line of scrimmage the last thing that should have been said in the huddle was make sure we double team B.J. Raji. He has the ability to stuff both of his gap assignments on running plays and to also pressure the QB with a push up the middle. Veteran center Todd McClure is out with an injury and youngster Joe Hawley replaces him. Raji is to quick, strong, and agile for Hawley to handle one on one and he will need help blocking him especially on running plays if Atlanta and Michael Turner want to be successful with inside running plays.
DE Ray Edwards (versus) Packers Tackles: Edwards was an off season addition that was brought in to help DE John Abraham put more pressure on opposing QBs. The Falcons only have 5 sacks for the season, but none from Edwards. Abraham is listed as questionable with and hip injury for this game. Edwards will need to generate consistent pressure on Aaron Rodgers to help slow down the Packers passing attack. RT Bryan Bulaga(Packers) will miss the game with a knee injury so LT Chad Clifton and LT Marshall Newhouse will be assigned, depending where Edwards lines up, to slow Edwards down.
Final Word: The Falcons have been waiting nine months for another chance to show that they are capable of beating the Packers. In the off season they made moves that they deemed necessary to compete with the Green Bay Packers. They moved up in the draft to select WR Julio Jones to give Matt Ryan another target and deep threat and to take advantage of double teams against WR Roddy White. They also signed free agent DE Ray Edwards to help generate more sacks and to pressure the QB. They neglected to upgrade the secondary the main unit that got torched by Rodgers and his receiving corps. So far the new additions of Julio Jones has no TD catches and Ray Edwards has no sacks. The Falcons are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4. They need to get back to what they do best, even though it may not be pretty, and that is to run Michael Turner down your throat then hit Jones, White, and TE Tony Gonzales on play action passing plays. Rodgers and Green Bay should keep doing what they do best also and that is passing the ball. They are on a 10 game winning streak dating back to last year. Having a healthy TE Jermichael Finley back from a knee injury suffered early in 2010 season makes the Packers offense much harder to defend. Atlanta does not want to get into a shootout with Green Bay. They should try and slow the game down, keep Aaron Rodgers and company on the sidelines as much as possible, and score TDs when they get in the red zone not field goals.
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