Fearless predictions: second-leg deciders in L.A., Houston

I will congratulate myself later today for this (rare) prognostication achievement with a plate of chicken fajita nachos and a cold, cold Pacifico at my favorite local Tex-Mex spot. For now, we have more pressing matters. Namely, what’s going to happen in tonight’s pair of return legs, as New York gets ready to rumble at the Home Depot Center against the Galaxy, and Philadelphia looks to reverse a one-goal deficit as they visit the in-form Houston Dynamo.

Houston-Philadelphia, 8:30 p.m., ESPN2: First things first: the Houston Dynamo’s Robertson Stadium era will come to a close tonight – assuming they don’t decide to play some matches there next year while the finishing flourishes are applied to the club’s swell new downtown grounds.

Robertson Stadium, on the University of Houston campus but nestled in a pretty dicey part of town, served a wonderful purpose. It gave the Dynamo a six-year home, providing the essential venue while the franchise established roots that would allow for a far, far more suitable venue. All that said, I won’t miss Robertson, its Spartan amenities and particularly its unsuitably small field. (Although I know Dynamo fans will always have a special place in their hearts for their team’s hardscrabble, original home.)

On we go …

Philadelphia nicked a 1-0 result at Robertson Stadium toIt may seem contradictory, but I think the pressure is on Houston tonight. (Match preview is here.) First, see above. The Union players have won here before, and knowledge provides a big comfy security blanket heading down to South Texas. Of course, an early Houston goal will spin that puppy dog of confidence around 180 degrees, and the young men of the Union will suddenly feel the heat.\

(click through for more on this one, and for the word on L.A.-NY...)

Philadelphia is built to win low-scoring games, set up for defend-and-counter soccer. It didn’t work at home, but that doesn’t mean it can’t work like a charm on the road. “I think we knew they would be a counterattacking team and that they would sit back, try to defend, and then throw numbers forward.” Dynamo assist king Brad Davis said. “And that is exactly what they did.”

Well, that’s exactly what they’ll do again. In the end, I think Brian Ching will get a goal or help arrange one. I don’t think we’ll see a bunch of bulges in the net in this one. Best guess: a 1-1 tie with the Dynamo surviving to arrange a trip into Kansas City for Sunday’s conference final.

Los Angeles Galaxy-New York Red Bulls, 11 p.m. ET, ESPN2: Los Angeles carries a 1-0 margin into the return leg, looking to close this one and set up Sunday’s Western Conference final against Real Salt Lake. (If the Red Bulls win, the “Western Conference” final will be Monday in Utah, where Sunday matches are a no-no.)

The match preview is here. Rafa Marquez’s absence, in my humble opinion, gives the Red Bulls a fighting chance. Because that’s what this game demands: a little more elbow grease, a bit more of a grinding mentality. Dax McCarty (Marquez’s presumed replacement) isn’t the best tackler, but the amount of energy he’ll expend will far exceed anything Marquez could even think about offering.

In the end, the Galaxy will manage the match, limit mistakes and gain the necessary result. The Galaxy are masters of this belief that games are “lost” more than they are “won.” In other words, let the other guy make the mistakes. Bruce Arena’s team is, hands down, the smartest in MLS. David Beckham’s passing from midfield will open the Red Bulls defense once or twice, while Omar Gonzales, Todd Dunivant and the rest of the Galaxy back line lock things down on their end. I see a 1-0 or 2-0 Galaxy win.

Finally, this needs to be said about the ongoing war of words between the left coasters and west coasters:

On one hand, there is certainly an entertainment element to professional soccer. In that regard, I like the pitter-patter of verbal acrimony lobbed back and forth. But the assertion from Galaxy side that the New York Red Bulls are cheap or dirty or whatever is a little over the top. Yes, Thierry Henry got away with too many of those cheap little slaps earlier this year. League officials were slow to catch on (or reluctant to act or whatever) but they did finally tell the Frenchman to cut it out. And, yes, Henry lined up Kansas City’s Roger Espinoza. That was pretty dirty, indeed. Oh, and Dane Richards is a pretty sneaky sort about leaving his foot in on tackles and such.

But most teams have a fellow or two guilty of some of the same shenanigans. Besides, the Galaxy can be physical, too. Los Angeles isn’t just smart about managing matches, they know all the little gamesmanship tricks, too. So, here’s hoping everyone just calms down, shuts up and plays soccer tonight.

But if not, well, that gives me even more to write about.