AC Milan Vs. Napoli, Preview: Serie A Leaders Try To Hold Off Upstarts, Holders

While the Serie A doesn’t always have to be about Inter Milan, it’s difficult to consider Monday’s match at the San Siro without noting the holders’ looming. For some, the mere mention of Inter in a Milan-Napoli preview will induce an eye-roll, but the association is unavoidable. When Wesley Sneijder converted his 73rd minute free kick on Sunday against Sampdoria, Inter was on a course for second place, moving one point ahead of Napoli (two behind Milan). Whether fans of Milan and Napoli like it or not, the race for the scudetto seems destined to be defined by whether somebody can deny Inter a sixth consecutive title.

Milan is best situated to do so, if for no other reason than they have a head start. Currently two points ahead of their rivals, completing the double over Napoli would extend the Rossoneri lead to five. Scheduled to face Inter on April 2, Milan needs to maintain that gap, given it’s been over two years since they’ve defeated an Inter team that wasn’t led by Rafa Benítez. A Milan loss or draw puts Inter within one match day of catching the leaders.

The good news for Milanistas: Milan has already beaten Napoli once this year, getting a 2-1, October win in Naples. That match, however, is not very informative, with 45 minutes of it played with the Partenopei down a man. While Michele Pazienza’s dismissal came well after Milan had gone up 1-0, it’s not difficult to image a team with Napoli’s firepower being able to overcome that deficit had they not been at a numerical disadvantage. With Napoli used to dominating possession, it’s possible playing down a man carries a disproportionately large effect for Walter Mazzarri’s men. Playing with 10, Napoli only held 43 percent of the possession.

That should change on Monday, when you’re likely to see a Napoli attack patiently move the ball through central midfielders Pazienza and Walter Gargano (possibly Hassan Yebda), trying to exploit the advantage on the flanks garnered by their 3-4-2-1 set-up. Attackers Marek Hamsik and José Sosa will split wide and team with Andrea Dossena and Christian Maggio to stress fullbacks Massimo Oddo and Ignazio Abate. That will force Milan midfielders Mark van Bommel, Gennaro Gattuso and either Alexander Merkel or Kevin Prince Boateng to be more active on the flanks. Given the physical effort Napoli may extract from Milan, starting Merkel and Boateng makes the most sense; however, expect Massimiliano Allegri to keep both van Bommel and Gattuso in his XI.

Napoli’s ability to stretch out a normally narrow Milan means Edinson Cavani will have more room to operate in the middle. While the battles with Thiago Silva could be delightful - a match-up of two of the league’s most recently emerged stars - Napoli may be better served by either a.) asking Cavani to do his work against a slower, less athletic (though more experienced) Alessandro Nesta, or b.) have the Uruguayan come back off the line and use his skill on the ball to set-up Hamsik and Sosa, with the more withdrawn attackers trying to run through a slow Milan defense.

But that’s all easier typed than done. While on paper Milan seems an aging side that a quick squad can exploit, it’s still a team that has the best defensive record in Italy, one that held Napoli to one goal in the first match. With Napoli posting the second best defensive record in the league, October’s 2-1 looks like a relative shootout.

Milan, however, may have the personnel to replicate that result, particularly with the addition of Antonio Cassano. One good tactic to utilize when attacking Mazzarri’s formation is to put a player in the channel in front of either the left or right center back, force a decision from the defender, and run another attacker or a player from midfield into the extra space afforded by the three man line. The tactic requires forwards who are good distributors and athletic midfielders who can make the runs and be dangerous at the end of a through ball.

Milan have plenty of attackers capable of playing the part, be it Cassano, Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Alexandre Pato. In midfield, however, Prince is one of the few options likely to dress who fits this description. If he starts, look for him to stress Hugo Campagnaro and Salvatore Aronica. If the Ghanaian isn’t in the starting XI, Robinho may have to give an uncharacteristic amount of effort for Milan to exploit the back three.

How many chances Milan gets to pick apart Napoli may be the most telling variable. Time of possession is an oft over-used statistic in a world where counter attacking football is increasingly important, but in this match, it’s difficult to imagine Milan creating enough chances should Napoli monopolize play. If Allegri starts his 4-3-3, there could be long stretches of time when a Napoli denies the Rossoneri possession, but when Milan gains the ball, their lack of a wide presence in attack means they’re unlikely to be able to successfully counter a team with two holders.

With the little possession they’ll have, Milan is going to have to conventionally build attacks and be efficient with the chances they’re able to produce. Fortunately for Milanistas, the Rossoneri have the set-up and players to do just that. Players like Ibrahimovic, Robinho and Cassano don’t need a wealth of chances to make an impact. If Milan can get an early goal, just as they did in Naples, they may be able to rely on their league-best defense to complete their double.

Milan is getting healthier, but as you would expect from an old team, they’re still missing a few important players. Andrea Pirlo is out, as is the captain, Massimo Ambrosini. Also unavailable: Daniele Bonera, Luca Antonini, and Filippo Inzaghi.

For Napoli, Ezequiel Lavezzi is serving the second game of a three match suspension. Defender Gianluca Grava will also be unavailable.