MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Day 1: Explaining The 10,000 Hour Rule, And More

Despite its rapid growth, star panelists, and location in a city that’s fertile grounds for innovation and evolution, the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference remains widely unnoticed in many pockets of the sports world.

Headed up by Houston Rockets general manager Darryl Morey, the conference is in its fifth year and, heck, could one day mark the start of a real transition between winter and spring among sports media, executives and business-minded folks. Initially held at conference rooms in neighboring Cambridge, the conference began as a much more intimate event, comprised of a privy handful of people interested in sharing analytics and sabremetric-like concepts that, well, only dorks could appreciate. Beginning last year, the event moved to a multi-acre convention center in downtown Boston, and now hosts 1500 people, including students from dozens of colleges, 53 professional sports teams, 10 different sports (plus poker), and a handful of sports analytics and technology startups eager to give you an elevator pitch as you briskly move between panels.

The event is also being streamed online for those unable to get to Boston, and coupled with the media representatives here is reaching an estimated 40 million people around the world. It has been dubbed by Sloan’s Dean David C. Schmittlein as an event that’s grown to “showcase the invention of the future of sports and how to better effectively manage games and make personnel decisions.” There’s plenty to be gleaned here by even the casual sports fan, and because of that, it’s safe to say that the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference has come a long way, but from what I have seen today, is still in its infancy stages in terms of the untapped potential and power it may one day possess.

Many may be put off by a word in the conference’s title: “analytics.” But it has become far more than that, and that was made clear in the morning session, where a major takeaway resonated amongst the crowd.

Sure, my interest was piqued when former Texas Tech head football coach Mike Leach believed there was a real value to quantifying momentum, or at the very least quantifying the residual effects of a momentum-shifting play such as a blocked punt or key interception, and how it could increase the likelihood of that team converting on offense, one, two, even three possessions thereafter. I also bought into the notion that the NBA may soon morph into something that is more aptly described as competitive entertainment then a professional sport. Michael Wilbon was adamant that the ease of access the media has to NBA players before and after games is in stark contrast to media players who cover the NFL. “Tom Brady,” said Wilbon, “I can’t talk to him on the Tuesday before a Sunday game.” Whereas he can waltz into a Heat locker room and chum it up with the entire team just an hour or two before tip-off.

But the most thought-provoking panel was unquestionably moderated by the wildly philosophical Malcolm Gladwell. Flanked by Morey, Justin Tuck, Jeff Van Gundy, and Mark Verstegen, CEO of Athletes’ Performance, the topic was on the implementation of the 10,000 hour rule (discussed at length in Gladwell’s book, “Outliers”) into the world of sports. Gladwell’s theory is based off of a study he read by Florida State University Professor of Psychology K. Anders Ericsson – one of the world’s leading thinkers and researchers on expertise.

Piggybacking off of Ericsson’s study, Gladwell contends that the key to superior success is largely attributed to the practice of a specific task or skill for approximately 10,000 hours. Immediately, that concept denounces the idea of a prodigy easily being able to turn him or herself into a superstar, and that labeling someone as having “God-given talents” just isn’t appropriate in the grand scheme of things. Because with time, if the skill is not honed and perfected, eventually those Robert Redford abilities will at some point break down. Interjecting, Jeff Van Gundy pointed to fizzling NBA superstar Tracy McGrady. Unquestionably the best talent Van Gundy had the privilege of coaching, McGrady possessed not only “freakish” talent, but he had a keen understanding of the game of basketball. But when the competition became elite, and the grind of an 82 game season year in and year out prevented the star from advancing his Rockets team past the first round of the playoffs, his skills actually got in the way.

Really, the fact that 20 minutes at a major sports conference in 2011 was spent assessing the make-up of Tracy McGrady was enough for me, but a deeper connection was made amongst the chuckles: In general, a superstar athlete develops and improves at a linear fashion, both mentally and physically.

At the conclusion of the panel, Verstegen suggested that athletes should receive quality coaching at an earlier age. Put the precocious ones in a more controlled environment, and you prevent them from letting an ego develop. Basically, you have to have an insatiable desire to be a savant at the skill you’re best at. The world’s most recognizable athletes aren’t just that by coincidence. They leveraged the aforementioned “God-given talents” they received, but never got complacent because of it. They’re freakishly hungry, obsessed in always fine-tuning their swing, shot, or throw and terrified of those that challenge him or her.

I woke up this morning thinking i would have numbers and algorithms hurled at me in every which direction. What I got instead was a lesson in assessing talent and uncovering new methods for finding success.