The BUST-O-METER is back again to break down our top 15 draft bust risks. The series of articles will look at two prospects per week breaking down why I feel they have a high potential for busting. Many factors played into my ranking including potential draft position. The draft position is very important because if they are selected high than what their production warrants it puts them at a higher likely hood of busting. These articles always bring a ton of feedback and are highly controversial which is what makes them so fun.
NFL Draft BUST-O-METER: #3 Aldon Smith
For a reference, I like to classify a bust as someone that doesn’t live up to their draft position. This means that if a player is selected #1 overall I expect him to be a dominate player in the league. I also take into consideration what position the player is projected to play in the NFL. For example, if someone is selected in the top 10 and is projected as a rush 3-4 linebacker I expect to see a high sack total. Of course, there are many other factors that are specific for each player so check out the rest of the article after the JUMP.
Also don’t forget to stop by our Scouting Reports page to get an in-depth look at each prospect.
Player: Aldon Smith
BUST-O-METER: 8 out of 10
Projected Draft Range: Mid to late 1st round
Thoughts: Smith is an underclassman from Missouri that possesses tremendous athletic ability. He has proven that he has the capability to create pressure on the quarterback. His burst off the ball and quickness to the edge give him a lethal speed rush. Smith has a terrific motor that often aids his pursuit to the football.
Right now, Smith is a man without a true position and that is a major contributor to his appearance on this list. He has a good tall frame but lacks the ideal bulk to hold up as a defensive end. His lack of bulk is coupled with questionable strength limiting his ability to hold strong at the point and stuff the run. Due to the concerns with playing defensive line, Smith is getting some attention as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. However, he doesn’t have much experience dropping into coverage. NFL teams will need to do their due diligence to make sure they feel Smith has fluid enough hips to drop into coverage.
Overall, Smith possesses crazy potential as a speed rusher off the edge. The importance of creating pressure will likely vault Smith higher than his overall game warrants. Smith could easily develop into a double digit sack guy but also into a major bust. I see Smith as a true bloom or doom type player and might be a risky pick.
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