Tim Howard won’t last forever; Cracks in the U.S. goalkeeper pipeline?

Nick Green is on my starting XI of well-informed, highly respected soccer writers. He works hard and has smart opinions.

So I hope he won’t take offense when I respectfully disagree with a little something he wrote. It’s just a wee disagreement. Think “friendly debate over icy cold Pacificos” more than “screaming match in the bosses’ office.”

Green wrote a compelling piece, suggesting that cracks are appearing in a previously prodigious pipeline of U.S. goalkeepers. It’s a really interesting point, and Green has some persuasive evidence to support his position. I must say, his numbers gave me pause.

American goalkeepers started 94 percent of MLS matches between 1998 and 2005, including every match during the 2002 season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

But for the past four years that figure has hovered around the 70 percent mark.

That’s great reporting. He goes on to illuminate how more MLS goalkeepers these days tend to come from, ahem, the older part of town. There’s Donovan Ricketts (33), Pat Onstad (43) and Faryd Mondrag (39). He’s getting a double-word score here since all of those fellows are from outside the States. There’s also some aging Americans between the pipes: Kasey Keller (41) and Kevin Hartman (36).

Green reports that the average age of starting MLS goalkeepers was 28 from 1995-2005, whereas it’s 32 today. That’s more great reporting.

But is the cupboard bare? (Green doesn’t really say that it’s bare, by the way, he just warns that breaks in the pipeline have occurred before in lands of brawny goalkeeping, such as England ; his piece is more of a “heads-up.”) Read on ...

I would say that MLS quality has increased, along with the number of teams. That has left MLS sides to gaze beyond the United States for talent across the field, including in goal. That’s why, in my opinion, we’re seeing a decrease in percentage of U.S. goalkeepers. In other words, the number of qualified Americans has remained about the same, but the number of worthy goalkeepers needed to fill MLS nets has increased. Hence, the reduction in percentage of U.S. starters.

As for ‘keepers to fill the bill behind current U.S. No. 1 Tim Howard: it’s true that there are no Tim Howards currently behind Tim Howard in the U.S. pool. Then again, a lot of countries don’t have one back-stopper of Howard’s quality, much less a bullpen full of them.

Brad Guzan has years and years of quality goalkeeping ahead. At 26 years old he’s just reaching the sweet spot in a goalkeeper’s career arc. At that age, Howard was an in-and-out presence at Manchester United; he didn’t really take off until he landed at Everton a couple of years later.

Behind those two: Between Chicago’s Sean Johnson (21), D.C. United’s Bill Hamid (20), Celtic’s Dominic Cervi (25), Houston’s Tally Hall (25) and a couple of others in varying stages of development, I’d wager a pair of old-school Uhlsport gloves that one or more will keep climbing the charts and land somewhere special.

Johnson has struggled recently and may have lost his starting spot in Chicago. But, again, he’s just 21. The professional ups and downs are out there, of course. Meanwhile, Hall may be the best U.S. goalkeeper that most fans have never heard of. The sample remains small at the moment, as he’s in his first starting assignment with the Dynamo. But he’s been rock solid so far, and damn spectacular in two particular matches.