Young pitchers are dandelion spores blown into the wind, with only one out of a dozen nestling into soil and growing up to fulfill their promise. This analogy does assume that dandelion spores have ligaments, rotator cuffs, and other things that can go “sproing!” It’s a tough task to develop a young pitcher into a top-of-the-rotation beast, but five teams have put a rookie in their rotation to start the season. Here’s a peek at who they are and what they’re doing:
Kyle Drabek, Michael Pineda Lead Charge Of Rookie Starters
For some reason, I can’t think about Beachy without thinking of Brien Taylor, the polar developmental opposite of the Braves’ rookie. Taylor was the first overall pick. Beachy was undrafted. Taylor hurt himself in a fight and never threw a pitch in the majors. Beachy blew through the minors like he had a copy of the answer key. Taylor is who people think of when they think of unfulfilled promise. Beachy is who they should think of when they think of someone getting the most out of their talent.
Beachy is the politician you actually trust, the hardscrabble former coal miner who fell into politics because he wanted to help. Taylor is the natural politician, blessed with an unteachable silver tongue, who was doing well in the primaries before getting caught in bed with four flight attendants and ending up on the cover of the National Enquirer.
Also, Beachy is the one throwing baseballs for a living, and he’s doing better than you might think. He’s averaging a strikeout per inning, and he’s keeping his walks down. His ERA is over 5.00, but if he keeps pitching as he has, that will dip substantially. He probably has the most underwhelming stuff on this list, but that’s only if you don’t take into account the bats he’s missing.
This is why it didn’t make sense to sneer at the Orioles’ goal of collecting positional-average hitters in the offseason. Sometimes young pitchers emerge from a chrysalis all at once and turn into beautiful butterflies right before our eyes. With Britton, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta, the Orioles are juggling a lot of cocoons.
And, sure, injuries and inconsistency are tonguey lizards waiting for something to flutter by -- this year, Matusz and Arrieta have already been tasty meals -- but when pitchers like Britton develop, it’s a good idea to have an average-or-better lineup already in place. So far so good for Britton, who’s had two excellent starts in his first three tries. Baseball America rated him as the #28 prospect in the game coming into this season, and he’s been impressive.
I know it sounds weird, but if you’re Toronto, you just might prefer having Drabek for six years below market value than Roy Halladay for three years at $20 million per. Halladay is probably the best pitcher in the game, but Drabek has the potential to be elite as well, and he’ll be around Toronto for a while. Drabek’s two-seamer is a goofy pitch, a fastball that bores in on righties and away from lefties. Like most young pitchers, he’s a little wild, but he’s done very well to start the season:
Of all the pitchers on this list, Drabek might be the one you’d wager a few clams to win a Cy Young first. He’s going against the Yankees tonight, and if you haven’t seen him pitch, make some time for it. He’s pretty special.
Maybe it’s just me, but I have a hard time keeping my Hellicksons straight from my Davises from my Niemanns from my McGees. I can’t remember which one is the tall one who throws hard, and which one is the really tall one who throws really hard. It’s a good problem for the Rays.
Hellickson isn’t as tall as most of the skyscrapers who come through the Tampa Bay system, but he is the most heralded young pitcher to come through the organization since David Price. He’s featured fantastic control in the minors, and last season he combined that control with a low home-run rate and gaudy strikeout numbers in AAA. The Rays had the luxury of bringing Hellickson along slowly, and they’ve taken their time with him. He’s off to a decent start, but there’s a good chance he’ll rise close to the top of the Rays’ deep rotation.
Hear me out, Mariners fans: there’s a parallel here. Young guy comes up, sets world on fire, wins a Cy Young. Another young pitcher, a 21-year-old, comes up and pitches well right away to complement the ace. The offense is terrible, but at least you have the young pitching foundation. The offense is terrible enough to be mentioned again. But the young pitching! And then your GM scrambles around at the last second, puts together an average offense, and wins the World Series.
The Aristocrats!
The order of Felix/Pineda might not be identical to Lincecum/Cain, but the Mariners are on a similar track to the 2010 Giants: get the top of the rotation set first, and figure out the lineup as you go. Pineda is that talented, and his walk rate in the minors hints that he can keep up his fast start, sticking in a major league rotation without the customary hiccup that young pitchers go through. And if he does run into those hiccups, he’s in a ballpark that will help minimize them.
Of all the pitchers on this list, Pineda might be the one you’d wager a few clams to win a Cy Young first. If you read the same sentence in the Drabek section, it’s because I’m planning on coming back and editing out whichever prediction is wrong. I can’t decide between the two.
Heck, I can’t decide between any of them. They’re all good, talented young pitchers. It’s why they made a major league rotation, and it’s why their respective teams are building around them. Young pitchers might be mercurial things, but they’re always among the most fascinating players in the game. All five are worth tracking this season, especially if you have Extra Innings or MLB.tv.
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