Blast your way through the group stages and you should be rewarded. In the case of Jamaica, they're probably not too happy that their nine point performance has sealed a date with the United States. In the case of Mexico, their dominance of Group A of the Gold Cup has paid off, as they have a quarterfinal date with Guatemala, arguably the weakest team remaining in the competition. They play the nightcap at the New Meadowlands Stadium in New Jersey, right after Costa Rica takes on Honduras.
Gold Cup (Copa Oro) Quarterfinals: Mexico Vs. Guatemala, Costa Rica Vs. Honduras
That opening game is an interesting one, as many thought that Honduras and Costa Rica were both likely semifinalists. Jamaica has impressed so far in this competition, but the general consensus is that Costa Rica and Honduras are the third and fourth best teams in CONCACAF behind the traditional big two of the United States and Mexico. Both teams have had ups and downs to start the tournament, but both also have much more in their bag of tricks than they’ve shown so far.
Costa Rica were absolutely obliterated by Mexico in the first half of their group stage game, and there’s no question that they’re a better team than they showed in those 45 minutes. Bryan Ruiz looked a bit rusty in his first game back with the team, while the entire defense looked very poor. The good news is that loss didn’t knock them out of the tournament, and it would be stunning to see them play that poorly again.
Honduras, like Costa Rica, rested some of their stars. However, unlike Costa Rica, they didn't bust them out for the final game of the group stages. It seems like now would be the time for them to bring stars Wilson Palacios of Tottenham Hotspur and Emilio Izaguirre of Celtic. They were both called into the team, but have yet to play. If they're not going to play in the knockout stages, why call them into the team in the first place?
Just because of the question marks around Palacios and Izaguirre, Costa Rica have to be slight favorites for this match. Additionally, Ruiz probably shook off most of the rust against Mexico, and he’ll be ready to play in a must-win game.
The other game is likely to be less interesting, as it would be stunning to see Mexico fail to defeat Guatemala in a convincing matter. 'Chicharito' Javier Hernandez is the leading scorer in the Gold Cup, except Mexico is so good right now that they didn't even need him to score to absolutely rip apart Costa Rica. Finally having a reliable, near-world class center forward has made Mexico a bigger force than they have been since Jared Borgetti and Cuauhtemoc Blanco were in their early thirties, but their other attacking players are so good that they can create chances even if Chicharito disappears.
Andres Guardado, Pablo Barrera and Giovani dos Santos make up the band of three players behind Hernandez, and all three have been absolutely fantastic. Guardado scored what was the goal of the tournament so far against Costa Rica, while dos Santos is finally reaching his potential after a few years of disappointment with Tottenham Hotspur and his loan spells before the most recent one to Racing Santander.
Mexico have had to play their last two games with just 17 players after Ricardo Osorio left the team because of injury and five others were removed for doping. FIFA and CONCACAF have ruled that the team is allowed to call in replacement players, but this is something that they will probably only take advantage of for the next two rounds of the tournament, if at all. Against Guatemala, expect the Mexican team to be made up of 17 players.
Guatemala have a couple of players who can create scoring chances from minimal opportunities, but they haven't come up against a team like Mexico in this tournament. Marco Pappa of the Chicago Fire is having a good tournament, but MLS and small island nations are nothing like Mexico.
Barring a major upset, Mexico should be coasting through to the semifinals. The real show on Saturday will be the early game as two very solid teams fight for a semifinal place, the right to play Mexico, and the distinction as (at worst) the third best team in North America. The crowd at New Meadowlands Stadium should be massive and very pro-Mexico, but expect large contingents of fans from all of the other three countries involved.
For more on the 2011 Gold Cup (Copa Oro), the Mexico vs. Guatemala match, and Mexican football in general, check out SB Nation’s Mexican football blog FMF State of Mind.
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