The first leg of the 2011 Copa Libertadores Final in Montevideo was a predictable affair. Santos held most of the possession, but didn’t do a lot with it. Peñarol didn’t look good, but they were able to create a couple of great scoring chances on set pieces and on the counter-attack. Ultimately, the game ended 0-0 with neither team willing to commit numbers forward with abandon, pushing for a goal. Santos were content to take their chances at home, while Peñarol were content to avoid conceding an away goal.
Copa Libertadores Final 2011, Santos Vs. Peñarol: Leg 2 Preview
While that latter point is certainly a good thing for Peñarol, the advantage sits with the team who is playing at home in the second leg. Santos weren’t able to break down Peñarol in the first leg, partially because of their lack of ambition and partially because Peñarol is a very good team. In the second leg, Santos might be able to bust out their ace in the hole; the player who should allow them to easily break down Peñarol’s defensive posture without the ball.
That player is Paulo Henrique Ganso, the up and coming Brazilian playmaker who is expected to be snapped up by a big European club - probably A.C. Milan - in the coming months. Ganso sustained a hamstring injury a month ago and missed the first leg of the final, but most believed last week that he would be able to play in this game. He has not yet been named a starter or ruled out of the game.
If Ganso is 90 minutes fit and starting the game for Santos, the mission is clear for Peñarol: They must score. An away goal means that a draw sees them lift the cup, and they’re not going to be able to keep a Santos side with Neymar and Ganso off the board in Brazil.
Santos will play this game which a much more obvious sense of urgency, but expect it to start much like the first leg of the final, with both teams feeling each other out. It’s likely that both teams could be patient and content with a 0-0 draw, but Peñarol will be the team more willing to take that result. The longer the tie stays 0-0, the more Peñarol will bunker and the more Santos will push forward.
If you’re a neutral looking for fun, root for an early Santos goal that causes Peñarol to get a little more ambitious. If Santos can get an incredibly boring Cerro Porteño side to play a fun match, they can easily do the same with Peñarol, who are not inherently negative, just focused on shape and counter-attacking.
Santos are favorites, but anything can happen. This is Copa Libertadores, after all.
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