Ranking the Contenders - Chase for the Sprint Cup Preview

The Chase for the Sprint Cup Series begins with the Geico 400 Sunday afternoon at Chicagoland Speedway.

Twelve drivers, including five former champions, earned the right to compete for the championship after a heated and crash-filled Wonderful Pistachios 400 at Richmond International Raceway. You’ll find a lot of familiar faces in new roles with some long-time favorites looking considerably softer heading into a new Chase opener in Joliet, Ill.

After 26 races the Chase field has been set with the 12-driver field being represented by six Chevrolets, two Fords, two Toyotas and both Penske Dodges, accounting for 21 wins during the regular season.

But not all 2011 championship contenders are created equal with all 12 teams entering Chicago in three distinct groups. They race the races for a reason and any of the 12 could catch momentum and win this championship. But from the outside looking in, four drivers are entering this Chase as the favorites:

Group A: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch

Chase Chances: 70%

The decided “championship favorite” has been the norm for Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, with the two preparing to battle for a second straight season. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch, two of the most phenomenal names in our industry might be a notch below Johnson and Harvick, despite a combined seven wins.

Busch has never responded well to the demands and pressure of competing for a Cup Series championship, having won only three times in September, October, and November. This was especially true in 2008 when Busch won seven races prior to the Chase (as well as the Chase opener at New Hampshire) before sputtering-out the rest of the season to a tenth-place championship finish.

Gordon had a strong Chase with former crew chief Steve Letarte in 2007, winning two Chase races but fell victim to the 48 juggernaut over the season’s final three events. Gordon says that he feels even more confident now than in 2007 with a new team led by Alan Gustafson.

Meanwhile, Busch has grown into a (mostly) more mature character and seems more poised than ever to take the Cup.

Harvick learned how to lose the Championship in 2010, now it’s time to see if he’s learned how to win it. He’s carrying momentum off a hard-fought victory at Richmond and is looking to carry it over to Chiocagoland where he’s been a contender every season with two wins and an average finish of 11.2 in 10 races. Harvick could throw the early gauntlet on his competition with his second back-to-back victory of the season

As for “Five-time,” he’s the favorite until someone knocks him off the mountain.

Group B: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski

Chase Chances: 20%

Group B is represented by two pair of Roush Fords and Penske Dodges.

Edwards led the standings for much of the year and won the season’s third race at Las Vegas. Since then Roush-Fenway has fought mechanical issues with their new FR-9 engine and have been considerably slower than the Hendrick duo of Gordon and Johnson, as well as Kyle Busch.

Kenseth rattled off a couple of wins early in the season and earned a Chase berth with steadfast consistency. He won the 2003 championship with the same mentality but it’s unlikely that this sort of 10-race stretch will win a championship under the Chase format. Kenseth has to win at least one race over the final stretch of the season to have a shot.

Kurt Busch lashed out against the AP’s Jenna Fryer and Jimmie Johnson on Saturday, illustrating why he’s an unlikely championship contender. He has way too many distractions going into Sunday’s Chase opener.

Call it MonkeyxFootball syndrome.

His only win of the season came on a road course, at Sonoma, and Busch’s team has only maintained mid-level consistency despite Penske Racing finding speed for the no. 2 team with Brad Keselowski.

For his part, Brad Keselowski has done everything possible to make himself a credible championship contender over the summer months. He silenced the critics by winning two races after suffering a fractured ankle and has scored the second most points since Indianapolis, trailing only Jeff Gordon in that category. He may be the favorite of all the drivers in Group B, despite not earning bonus points because he’s one of two wild-cards in this year’s Chase.

Group C: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman

Chase Chances: 10%

Stay away from this group if you’re playing in a fantasy Chase pool.

These guys expended all of their energy in just making the Chase for the Championship and in the words of Tony Stewart, they probably “don’t deserve to be in the Chase.”

To his credit, Tony Stewart is the only driver in the eight-year history of the playoff format to win the championship without winning a race during the final 10 races, proving it can be done. The sanctioning body responded several times since then by rewarding wins with additional points, so it’s likely Smoke will be the last of his kind. Stewart, along with the rest of Group C, must win a race to have any shot to win the championship.

Denny Hamlin might be the most capable of those in this group, after winning at Michigan in June and coming off an eight-win season in 2010. Joe Gibbs Racing scored five wins this year and most would assume that this should eventually translate to wins for Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford. It’ll be interesting to see how the change to Toyota Racing Development engines will affect his performance during the final ten races.

Despite winning a race at New Hampshire, Newman is largely in the same position as his owner/teammate Tony Stewart. A somewhat shaky consistency earned him a playoff berth but he will need race victories to stay there. The math will be against him with 11 adversaries and just 10 races to get it done. The throwaway Hendrick engines may play a role in diminished performance beginning on Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the guy you all want to read about anyway, right? So here’s the deal.

As part of Hendrick Motorsports with cars built for him out of the same garage as Jimmie Johnson, this will only help Junior’s hopeful first championship bid since the 2004 season. Having Steve Letarte, who’s been a legitimate Chase contender with Jeff Gordon since 2007, should see the 88 team return to early-season form.

But that won’t be good enough as like the rest of their group, Earnhardt must win a race whether it is on the short tracks at Phoenix and New Hampshire or his old stomping grounds at Talladega.

Matt Weaver: Kyle Busch / Preseason - Kyle Busch

Aaron Rosser: Kevin Harvick/ Preseason - Jeff Gordon

Brett Hatfield: Kyle Busch/ Preseason - Jimmie Johnson

Bob Ellis: Kyle Busch / Preseason - Jimmie Johnson

Discuss.