2011 NLDS: Phillies And Cardinals Prepare For Game 5 In Philadelphia

The Phillies stranded leadoff baserunners against Jackson in the fifth and sixth, with the latter frame including a phenomenal defensive play by Albert Pujols. Again, I’m not going to describe it - you can just watch it for yourself:

Then, in the bottom of the sixth, Freese supplied some insurance. With one on and two out, Freese slaughtered a pitch way out to straightaway center, the ball landing on the grassy batter’s eye beyond the fence for a two-run dinger.

If the Phillies had beaten the Cardinals, a) the Series would - if history’s any guide - essentially be over, and b) we could spend a goodly chunk of this piece second-guessing a key decision made by Tony La Russa before the game.

But the Cardinals beat the Phillies, so we’ll save the second-guessing for another time.

But looking back now, we can interpret Halladay’s first inning as an act of generosity, as he spotted the Cardinals three runs just to try to give them a chance. Because after the first inning, Halladay went back to being himself.

So about that early 3-0 Cardinals lead. Did it hold up? As you’ve already figured out, it did not hold up. Not even close. But for whatever it’s worth, it did hold up for a while.

I like CoolStandings.com a lot. I like it an awful lot. I like it so much that I probably visit it at least once a week during the regular season, even in April and May. I don’t know why, but I guess I just really enjoy staring at playoff odds, calculated by a formula to which I am not privy.

So let’s consider those playoff odds for a moment. Even allowing for the fact that there’s no way these calculated playoff odds are perfect, I think it’s fair to say they represent approximations of the truth, yes? They can’t be that far off. At any given time, they give you a pretty good idea of where a team stands.

Why is this interesting? Because it’s risky. Why is this risky? Because, historically, pitchers have performed considerably worse on short rest than they have on regular rest. Carpenter has never started on short rest even once in his life. So this is a gamble. But Tony La Russa believes that Carpenter didn’t really exhaust himself when pitching a two-hit shutout against the Astros on Wednesday, and Carpenter is the best starter on the roster.

But according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals have set their rotation for the NLDS:

Lohse/EJax/Carp against Halladay/Lee/Hamels in NLDS.

The Cardinals can’t afford to look back on everything they’ve accomplished over the last month, because now they’re facing perhaps the toughest test in baseball. Of course, anything can happen in a short series and it’s not like one should expect the Cardinals to get blown out, but the Phillies’ arms are relentless, and the Cards will have their hands full.

The series schedule is presented below: