2012 Final Four: Previewing Ohio State, Which Looks To Continue Amazing March Run

It is difficult to think of a team that was receiving first-place votes in the preseason and drew a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament as any sort of “dark horse” title contender. But with the way they somewhat drifted off of the radar screen late in the season, Ohio State almost qualifies. On February 7, they were 21-3, 9-2 in the rugged Big Ten and almost a sure 1-seed. But they lost three of their next five, including two home games, and despite a late win at Michigan State, they headed into the postseason on a bit of a down note. They whipped Purdue and Michigan to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (they fell to Michigan State, 68-64), but as the NCAA Tournament dawned, a large number of people were ignoring them in favor of the 3-seed, a Florida State team that had just won the ACC Tournament. (I am just happy I was not alone in this foolishness).

Four wins -- whippings of Loyola (Maryland) and Cincinnati and tough-it-out wins over Gonzaga and Syracuse -- later, Thad Matta is preparing for his second Final Four.

In 2004, Matta took over what was a rather dreadful defensive team in Columbus. He almost instantly turned them into a stout defensive squad -- only once have the Buckeyes ranked outside of the Top 25 in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings -- but this season might be his masterpiece. Ohio State will occasionally allow you a decent shot or two, but they will grab every defensive rebound opportunity and force turnovers without fouling. You better get somebody hot because you aren’t going to be able to scrap and claw for points. The Buckeyes are too sound for that.

Where the Buckeyes are weakest

First, we start with the foundation itself: Ohio State ranks 304th in Bench Minutes -- five players average at least 25 minutes per game, and nobody else averages more than 11.4 -- and 287th in Experience. But aside from potentially Louisville, nobody in the Final Four is deep, so that is a bit of a wash.

On defense, the Buckeyes rank poorly in just one category: Def. FT%. That means that when they do foul, they are most likely sending guards, i.e. good free throw shooters, to the line. Craft averages 2.5 fouls per game -- he can get into trouble at times.

Where they are best

They are just so good near the basket. They rank 11th in Off. 2PT%, and they take more 2-pointers than almost anybody in the country. Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas have combined to make 57 percent of their 2’s, and if they (or anybody else) misses a shot, they’ll just grab the rebound and try again. The Buckeyes are also outstanding in the turnovers department. They rank 30th in Off. TO% and 11th in Off. Steal Rate. Craft is (sorry) crafty with the ball, and OSU simply gives its opponent few easy transition opportunities.

The Buckeyes are 5-5 versus the Top 12, 12-6 versus the Top 30, and 17-7 versus the Top 100.

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team’s points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

A player’s Floor Percentage is defined as “the percentage of an individual’s possessions which are scoring possessions.“ It is a sign of an incredibly balanced offense that only two of nine players listed above are below 38 percent in this category. Even though the show runs through Sullinger (and to a lesser extent, Buford and Thomas), everybody contributes efficiently and effectively. Really, they are basically one more good 3-point shooter away from having potentially the best offense in the country. But the 3-point line has been selective kryptonite for this team, and it could be again this weekend.

The first time Ohio State played Kansas this season, they were without their star in one of the most intimidating venues in the country. They held steady and gave themselves a chance, primarily because they kept Kansas off of the offensive glass and forced 18 turnovers. With Sullinger taking over for Evan Ravenel (25 minutes, nine points, five rebounds, four turnovers, five fouls) on a neutral site, Ohio State has to like its chances. Pomeroy projects a 70-67 win for the Buckeyes, and while that would go against my original title game pick of Kentucky vs. Kansas, that sounds just about right. OSU is steady and battle-tested. Now they just have to keep playing like they have since February turned into March.