Last week, I spent a good portion of my time pointing out the Colts were quite over-ranked by the subjective rankers, and I was scratching my head. This week, instead of making things clearer, the subjective rankers went ahead and moved the Colts up in the rankings, again. Makes perfect sense, right?
Advanced NFL Power Rankings: Which team is flying under the radar now?
Previously, the Miami Dolphins were the team flying under the radar getting little respect. This week, there is a very clear heir to that “underrated” throne.
Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE
On the subject of over-ranked teams, are the Atlanta Falcons really the best team in the NFL? For the last few weeks, I’ve said no, and this week it’s even more obvious that they aren’t the best team in the NFL. You’ll see later on that the Falcons are actually one of the top teams when it comes to ranking disparity between their subjective and objective rankings. Being undefeated doesn’t necessarily make you the best team in the league.
A few weeks ago, it was the Miami Dolphins who were flying under the radar, playing much better football than most people had realized. This week, we have a clear leader in the “under the radar” category. I won’t spoil it for you, you’ll have to read on to find out.
Division Averages
| Division | Avg Ranking |
|---|---|
| NFC North | 10.0395 |
| NFC West | 14.4342 |
| NFC South | 14.5658 |
| NFC East | 16.5789 |
| AFC North | 17.6842 |
| AFC East | 17.7368 |
| AFC South | 19.5000 |
| AFC West | 21.4605 |
IT FINALLY HAPPENED! Now all 4 NFC divisions are ranked above all 4 AFC Divisions. Great team effort there, guys!
Stock Rising
| Team | Week 9 Average | Week 10 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 20.182 | 14.636 | 5.546 |
| IND | 17.182 | 11.909 | 5.273 |
| NO | 24.000 | 19.273 | 4.727 |
| CAR | 29.909 | 26.182 | 3.727 |
| SDG | 20.818 | 17.182 | 3.636 |
The Colts’ climb in the rankings this week are solely thanks to their Subjective Ranking, as they only rose 1 spot in the overall Objective Rankings.
Stock Falling
| Team | Week 9 Average | Week 10 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 17.909 | 22.182 | -4.273 |
| PHI | 16.727 | 20.818 | -4.091 |
| NYG | 2.818 | 6.546 | -3.728 |
| MIN | 12.091 | 15.364 | -3.273 |
| ARI | 18.273 | 20.818 | -2.545 |
Interesting that the 5 teams that dropped the most this week in the rankings are all NFC teams.
Subjective Average
| Subjective | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||
| Falcons | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.000  | ||
| Texans | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.273 | 0.363  | ||
| Bears | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3.000 | 1.273 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3.818 | 0.637 | ||
| Packers | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5.273 | 0.636 | ||
| Giants | 5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.546 | -3.728  | ||
| Patriots | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7.182 | -0.091 | ||
| Broncos | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.182 | 0.273 | ||
| Steelers | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8.636 | 1.455 | ||
| Ravens | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9.091 | -0.727 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11.636 | 1.000 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11.909 | 5.273 | ||
| Lions | 14 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14.455 | 1.545 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 14.636 | 5.546 | ||
| Dolphins | 15 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14.636 | -2.363 | ||
| Vikings | 16 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 15.364 | -3.273 | ||
| Chargers | 17 | 26 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17.182 | 3.636 | ||
| Cowboys | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 19 | 18.546 | -2.455 | ||
| Saints | 22 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 19.273 | 4.727 | ||
| Eagles | 21 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 20.818 | -4.091 | ||
| Cardinals | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 20.818 | -2.545 | ||
| Bengals | 23 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 21.364 | -1.273 | ||
| Redskins | 19 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 22.182 | -4.273 | ||
| Jets | 25 | 23 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 24.455 | 0.000 | ||
| Rams | 24 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 24.455 | -0.364 | ||
| Panthers | 29 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 26.182 | 3.727 | ||
| Raiders | 26 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27.000 | -1.636 | ||
| Bills | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 27.636 | -0.727 | ||
| Titans | 27 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 28.273 | -1.818 | ||
| Browns | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29.182 | -0.727 | ||
| Jaguars | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.000 | 0.000 | ||
Observations:
- No changes to the top team and bottom two teams. More interesting though, the Jets haven’t moved at all this week across the board; neat.
- The top 12 teams are pretty well set. I am still not at all convinced about the Colts though.
- Brian Billick (Fox) is going against the grain here and ranking the Chargers as 26th, when the lowest any other site has them is 18th. Even with Billick dragging the Chargers down, they still managed to climb 3.5 spots this week.
- After a promising start to the season in Washington, the Redskins really have begun to unravel.
Subjective Standard Deviation
| Subjective | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | | |  | | |||
| Jaguars | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Falcons | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Bears | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.426 | -0.626  | ||
| Texans | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.617 | -0.026 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 0.643 | -0.507 | ||
| Broncos | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0.716 | 0.218  | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0.716 | -0.175 | ||
| Packers | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0.750 | 0.236 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 0.996 | -3.200 | ||
| Patriots | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.029 | 0.515 | ||
| Raiders | 26 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 1.045 | 0.066 | ||
| Bills | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 1.150 | -0.631 | ||
| Ravens | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 1.164 | 0.393 | ||
| Cardinals | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 1.192 | -1.147 | ||
| Giants | 5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1.305 | 0.472 | ||
| Jets | 25 | 23 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 1.559 | 0.000 | ||
| Steelers | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 1.611 | 1.323 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 1.666 | -1.767 | ||
| Lions | 14 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 1.725 | -0.761 | ||
| Browns | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 1.749 | 0.190 | ||
| Bengals | 23 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 1.772 | -0.009 | ||
| Eagles | 21 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 1.800 | -0.460 | ||
| Titans | 27 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 1.814 | -0.247 | ||
| Vikings | 16 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 1.920 | 1.127 | ||
| Panthers | 29 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 1.946 | 1.658 | ||
| Dolphins | 15 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 2.057 | 0.637 | ||
| Cowboys | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 19 | 2.148 | -0.630 | ||
| Redskins | 19 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 2.167 | 0.491 | ||
| Saints | 22 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 2.339 | -0.219 | ||
| Rams | 24 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 2.536 | 0.070 | ||
| Chargers | 17 | 26 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 3.040 | 0.383 | ||
Observations:
- Not all that surprised that the Chargers are at the bottom of this list considering Billick’s rankings.
- Oh hey another neat thing about the Jets: their standard deviation remained the same this week as well. That means, across all 11 subjective rankings sites this week, their rankings stayed the same. I don’t think that’s ever happened.
- Remember when I said the top 12 was pretty well set? I was right. It’s pretty clear now who the “haves” and “have-nots” are.
Objective Average
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | |||
| 49ers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.500 | 0.125 | ||
| Texans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3.000 | -0.125 | ||
| Bears | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4.250 | 1.875 | ||
| Falcons | 9 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5.500 | -0.375 | ||
| Packers | 3 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5.625 | 1.375 | ||
| Broncos | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 6.000 | -1.000 | ||
| Patriots | 2 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 6.125 | 0.000 | ||
| Giants | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7.500 | -2.250 | ||
| Seahawks | 6 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 8.625 | 2.250 | ||
| Steelers | 10 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11.000 | 2.125 | ||
| Ravens | 12 | 22 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 11.875 | 1.375 | ||
| Buccaneers | 14 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 12.125 | 3.250 | ||
| Cowboys | 11 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 11 | 22 | 13.375 | 0.875 | ||
| Dolphins | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 22 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14.500 | -4.375 | ||
| Lions | 16 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 15.125 | -0.250 | ||
| Panthers | 15 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 15.250 | 6.250 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 18.000 | -4.375 | ||
| Jets | 20 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 19.250 | 0.875 | ||
| Redskins | 19 | 17 | 24 | 19 | 27 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 20.125 | -2.500 | ||
| Cardinals | 22 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 20.875 | -2.625 | ||
| Saints | 18 | 28 | 17 | 20 | 28 | 16 | 21 | 24 | 21.500 | 3.500 | ||
| Rams | 21 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 23 | 21.625 | 0.000 | ||
| Eagles | 26 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 15 | 22.875 | -2.875 | ||
| Colts | 28 | 26 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 23.000 | 1.625 | ||
| Chargers | 24 | 24 | 26 | 21 | 29 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 23.125 | -1.000 | ||
| Bengals | 23 | 19 | 29 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24.125 | 0.625 | ||
| Raiders | 27 | 21 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 26.875 | -3.125 | ||
| Bills | 25 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 17 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 27.000 | 0.125 | ||
| Browns | 29 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 27.125 | -0.625 | ||
| Titans | 31 | 30 | 22 | 30 | 19 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 27.875 | -0.500 | ||
| Jaguars | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30.375 | -0.250 | ||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 31.875 | 0.000 | ||
Observations:
- The nine bottom teams in Objective average are all AFC teams. And that includes the Colts.
- The top 12 teams are relatively even: seven NFC and five AFC teams; it’s not as lopsided at the top as it used to be.
- Oh hey cool, the Patriots objective average didn’t change at all this week, just like the Jets. It’s interesting because even though they’re on their bye this week, their rankings can still change based on how their past opponents did this week (strength of schedule adjustments).
- Last week it was BeatGraphs, this week it’s Troy Aikman keeping the Chiefs from being the unanimously-selected worst team in the league.
Objective Standard Deviation
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | | |||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 0.331 | 0.000 | ||
| Jaguars | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 0.696 | -0.357 | ||
| Giants | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 0.866 | -1.720 | ||
| 49ers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.323 | -0.086 | ||
| Steelers | 10 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 1.732 | -1.712 | ||
| Browns | 29 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 2.088 | 0.088 | ||
| Texans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2.179 | 0.416 | ||
| Falcons | 9 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2.179 | 0.091 | ||
| Packers | 3 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2.342 | 0.163 | ||
| Raiders | 27 | 21 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 2.472 | -1.261 | ||
| Bengals | 23 | 19 | 29 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 2.619 | 1.140 | ||
| Jets | 20 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 2.634 | 0.607 | ||
| Seahawks | 6 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 2.690 | -0.287 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 2.784 | -2.530 | ||
| Dolphins | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 22 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 2.916 | 1.989 | ||
| Chargers | 24 | 24 | 26 | 21 | 29 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 3.100 | -1.214 | ||
| Cardinals | 22 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 3.140 | -1.517 | ||
| Buccaneers | 14 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 3.257 | -3.724 | ||
| Broncos | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 3.279 | 0.000 | ||
| Redskins | 19 | 17 | 24 | 19 | 27 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 3.333 | -0.440 | ||
| Bears | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.382 | -0.204 | ||
| Eagles | 26 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 15 | 3.551 | 0.311 | ||
| Patriots | 2 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 3.621 | 0.070 | ||
| Lions | 16 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 3.621 | 0.817 | ||
| Rams | 21 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 23 | 3.672 | 0.592 | ||
| Cowboys | 11 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 11 | 22 | 4.241 | 0.972 | ||
| Bills | 25 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 17 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 4.272 | 1.904 | ||
| Titans | 31 | 30 | 22 | 30 | 19 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 4.371 | -0.397 | ||
| Saints | 18 | 28 | 17 | 20 | 28 | 16 | 21 | 24 | 4.416 | 0.479 | ||
| Panthers | 15 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 4.548 | -2.505 | ||
| Ravens | 12 | 22 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 4.781 | 1.290 | ||
| Colts | 28 | 26 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 6.423 | 0.100 | ||
Observations:
- Unlike the Jets, the Patriots’ standard deviation did not stay the same this week, so even though their overall average ranking stayed the same, they still moved in a few rankings.
- But the Broncos’ deviation did stay the same! So that just means while the Broncos moved down one full spot this week in the Objective rankings, they essentially did so in unison.
- The Chargers are actually one of the more consistently-ranked teams. Not sure that’s a good thing with their highest ranking being 20th, but whatever.
- Not too surprised to see the Colts at the bottom of this list.
Overall Average
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  | | |||
| Texans | 2.273 | 3.000 | 2.636 | 0.120 | ||
| 49ers | 3.818 | 2.500 | 3.159 | 0.381 | ||
| Falcons | 1.000 | 5.500 | 3.250 | -0.187 | ||
| Bears | 3.000 | 4.250 | 3.625 | 1.574 | ||
| Packers | 5.273 | 5.625 | 5.449 | 1.006 | ||
| Patriots | 7.182 | 6.125 | 6.653 | -0.045 | ||
| Giants | 6.546 | 7.500 | 7.023 | -2.989 | ||
| Broncos | 8.182 | 6.000 | 7.091 | -0.364 | ||
| Steelers | 8.636 | 11.000 | 9.818 | 1.790 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.636 | 8.625 | 10.131 | 1.625 | ||
| Ravens | 9.091 | 11.875 | 10.483 | 0.324 | ||
| Buccaneers | 14.636 | 12.125 | 13.381 | 4.397 | ||
| Dolphins | 14.636 | 14.500 | 14.568 | -3.369 | ||
| Lions | 14.455 | 15.125 | 14.790 | 0.648 | ||
| Cowboys | 18.546 | 13.375 | 15.960 | -0.790 | ||
| Vikings | 15.364 | 18.000 | 16.682 | -3.824 | ||
| Colts | 11.909 | 23.000 | 17.455 | 3.448 | ||
| Chargers | 17.182 | 23.125 | 20.153 | 1.319 | ||
| Saints | 19.273 | 21.500 | 20.386 | 4.114 | ||
| Panthers | 26.182 | 15.250 | 20.716 | 4.989 | ||
| Cardinals | 20.818 | 20.875 | 20.847 | -2.586 | ||
| Redskins | 22.182 | 20.125 | 21.153 | -3.386 | ||
| Eagles | 20.818 | 22.875 | 21.847 | -3.483 | ||
| Jets | 24.455 | 19.250 | 21.852 | 0.438 | ||
| Bengals | 21.364 | 24.125 | 22.744 | -0.324 | ||
| Rams | 24.455 | 21.625 | 23.040 | -0.182 | ||
| Raiders | 27.000 | 26.875 | 26.938 | -2.381 | ||
| Bills | 27.636 | 27.000 | 27.318 | -0.301 | ||
| Titans | 28.273 | 27.875 | 28.074 | -1.159 | ||
| Browns | 29.182 | 27.125 | 28.153 | -0.676 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.000 | 30.375 | 30.688 | -0.125 | ||
| Chiefs | 32.000 | 31.875 | 31.938 | 0.000 | ||
Observations:
- The Falcons now drop to third overall, behind Houston and San Francisco, and just barely ahead of the Bears.
- Just look at that definite cluster of teams separating the Ravens and Bucs, then the Colts and Chargers, then the Rams and Raiders.
- The Chiefs are the only team to have the same exact overall average this week.
- Well at least only the bottom six teams are AFC teams now.
Overall Standard Deviation
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | |||
| Chiefs | 32.000 | 31.875 | 0.223 | 0.000 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.000 | 30.375 | 0.547 | -0.262 | ||
| 49ers | 3.818 | 2.500 | 1.207 | -0.246 | ||
| Giants | 6.546 | 7.500 | 1.234 | -0.925 | ||
| Texans | 2.273 | 3.000 | 1.533 | 0.283 | ||
| Packers | 5.273 | 5.625 | 1.632 | 0.069 | ||
| Raiders | 27.000 | 26.875 | 1.791 | -0.866 | ||
| Steelers | 8.636 | 11.000 | 2.032 | -0.667 | ||
| Browns | 29.182 | 27.125 | 2.153 | 0.147 | ||
| Cardinals | 20.818 | 20.875 | 2.231 | -1.276 | ||
| Bears | 3.000 | 4.250 | 2.303 | -0.322 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.636 | 8.625 | 2.344 | 0.052 | ||
| Broncos | 8.182 | 6.000 | 2.446 | -0.307 | ||
| Dolphins | 14.636 | 14.500 | 2.456 | 0.827 | ||
| Patriots | 7.182 | 6.125 | 2.531 | 0.146 | ||
| Bengals | 21.364 | 24.125 | 2.562 | -0.275 | ||
| Falcons | 1.000 | 5.500 | 2.634 | 0.188 | ||
| Vikings | 15.364 | 18.000 | 2.663 | -0.918 | ||
| Lions | 14.455 | 15.125 | 2.711 | 0.028 | ||
| Buccaneers | 14.636 | 12.125 | 2.759 | -2.983 | ||
| Eagles | 20.818 | 22.875 | 2.866 | -0.295 | ||
| Redskins | 22.182 | 20.125 | 2.903 | 0.139 | ||
| Bills | 27.636 | 27.000 | 2.924 | 0.872 | ||
| Titans | 28.273 | 27.875 | 3.161 | -0.337 | ||
| Jets | 24.455 | 19.250 | 3.306 | 0.530 | ||
| Rams | 24.455 | 21.625 | 3.369 | 0.369 | ||
| Ravens | 9.091 | 11.875 | 3.507 | 0.146 | ||
| Saints | 19.273 | 21.500 | 3.548 | 0.298 | ||
| Cowboys | 18.546 | 13.375 | 4.094 | 0.964 | ||
| Chargers | 17.182 | 23.125 | 4.243 | 0.730 | ||
| Panthers | 26.182 | 15.250 | 6.327 | 0.144 | ||
| Colts | 11.909 | 23.000 | 6.923 | 0.556 | ||
Observations:
- No surprise that the Chiefs have the lowest Standard Deviation, and it’s the same as last week.
- Chargers towards the bottom of this chart, mostly thanks to Billick. Cowboys right behind them, but it’s not just one person’s fault.
- Panthers and Colts are at the bottom of the consistency ranking, but for two very different reasons (we’ll get to that shortly).
- On the whole, consistency actually got worse this week (Deviations went up).
Difference in Averages
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |  | | |||
| Colts | 11.909 | 23.000 | 11.091 | 3.648 | ||
| Chargers | 17.182 | 23.125 | 5.943 | 4.636 | ||
| Falcons | 1.000 | 5.500 | 4.500 | 0.375 | ||
| Ravens | 9.091 | 11.875 | 2.784 | -2.102 | ||
| Bengals | 21.364 | 24.125 | 2.761 | -1.898 | ||
| Vikings | 15.364 | 18.000 | 2.636 | 1.102 | ||
| Steelers | 8.636 | 11.000 | 2.364 | -0.670 | ||
| Saints | 19.273 | 21.500 | 2.227 | 1.227 | ||
| Eagles | 20.818 | 22.875 | 2.057 | -1.216 | ||
| Bears | 3.000 | 4.250 | 1.250 | -0.602 | ||
| Giants | 6.546 | 7.500 | 0.955 | -1.477 | ||
| Texans | 2.273 | 3.000 | 0.727 | 0.488 | ||
| Lions | 14.455 | 15.125 | 0.671 | 1.796 | ||
| Packers | 5.273 | 5.625 | 0.352 | -0.739 | ||
| Cardinals | 20.818 | 20.875 | 0.057 | 0.080 | ||
| Raiders | 27.000 | 26.875 | -0.125 | 1.489 | ||
| Chiefs | 32.000 | 31.875 | -0.125 | 0.000 | ||
| Dolphins | 14.636 | 14.500 | -0.136 | 2.012 | ||
| Titans | 28.273 | 27.875 | -0.398 | -1.319 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.000 | 30.375 | -0.625 | 0.250 | ||
| Bills | 27.636 | 27.000 | -0.636 | -0.852 | ||
| Patriots | 7.182 | 6.125 | -1.057 | -0.091 | ||
| 49ers | 3.818 | 2.500 | -1.318 | 0.512 | ||
| Browns | 29.182 | 27.125 | -2.057 | -0.102 | ||
| Redskins | 22.182 | 20.125 | -2.057 | -1.773 | ||
| Broncos | 8.182 | 6.000 | -2.182 | 1.273 | ||
| Buccaneers | 14.636 | 12.125 | -2.511 | 2.296 | ||
| Rams | 24.455 | 21.625 | -2.830 | -0.364 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.636 | 8.625 | -3.011 | -1.250 | ||
| Cowboys | 18.546 | 13.375 | -5.171 | -3.330 | ||
| Jets | 24.455 | 19.250 | -5.205 | -0.875 | ||
| Panthers | 26.182 | 15.250 | -10.932 | -2.523 | ||
Observations:
- The Colts led the “most overrated” list last week, and they do it again this week. And that gap has even grown!
- As a Chargers fan, I’m thankful for the Colts or else the Chargers would be the most overrated team this week. Instead they’ll have to settle for second place.
- See how the Falcons are pretty overrated still? Said Football Outsiders: “Atlanta has the lowest DVOA of any 8-0 team during the DVOA Era. In fact, even if we included both 8-0 and 7-1 teams, the 2012 Falcons come out ranked 40th out of 43 teams.”
- As much as the Colts are overrated, the Panthers are now vastly underrated. Wow, guess a slow start will really get people to just give up on you. The Panthers are your new “under the radar” team.
Best Match-ups for Week 10
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Houston (2.636) at Chicago (3.625) | Sun, Nov. 11 8:20PM EST | 0.989 |
| Detroit (14.790) at Minnesota (16.682) | Sun, Nov. 11 1:00PM EST | 1.892 |
Clearly the marquee matchup this week is Houston at Chicago. But Detroit at Minnesota should be a good game too.
Worst Match-Ups for Week 8
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City (31.938) at Pittsburgh (9.818) | Mon, Nov. 12 8:30PM EDT | 22.120 |
| Buffalo (27.318) at New England (6.653) | Sun, Nov. 4 1:00PM EDT | 20.665 |
It’s the second week in a row that Buffalo has been on this list. Tough schedule.
Sources
See More:
