Daytona 500: Predicting the pace of the Great American Race

DAYTONA BEACH, FLA. - As a standalone race, neither the Budweiser Shootout nor the Gatorade Duels at Daytona gave us a clear indication of how the Daytona 500 will play out. But combining the data from both races should deliver a complete picture.

The first Gatorade Duel is an analogy for the opening stages of the race. More competitive drivers will charge to the front while more cautious drivers will drop to the back. Both strategies will appear sound until the two parties converge, resulting in the first multi-car accident of the day.

A similar crash occurred on lap 29 of last year’s event and took out three Hendrick cars...

The middle portion of the Daytona 500 will closely mirror the action from the second Gatorade Duel. More appropriately, it will resemble the Duel’s lack of action and excitement. Drivers will settle in after witnessing the carnage from the first big accident and cars will race single-file for nearly 80 laps, setting up the final 30 laps and a shootout for the Harley J. Earl trophy.

Speaking of shootouts, the final 30 laps will duplicate the madness from last Saturday’s Budweiser Shootout. There will be several multi-car accidents and the leaders are bound to be involved in one of them.

When the Smoke clears, fans will be left with about six clear cut contenders to race for the right to go to victory lane - and they’ll likely be in tandems of two.

Some questions to ponder:

The Budweiser Shootout left 23 of 25 starting entries damaged. What will the car count be for damaged entries in the Daytona 500?

A Toyota, Chevrolet and Ford have each visited victory lane in exhibition races in thus far at Daytona. Is it just coincidence and numbers that Dodge has been shut out? Can A.J. Allmendinger, Brad Keselowski or Robby Gordon capture the Daytona 500 victory?

If not, who’s your pick for the most important race of the year? Tell us in the comments section below!