Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie is heading west to start for the Rockies; the Orioles get a pair of righthanders in exchange.
Jeremy Guthrie is better than you think
Jeremy Guthrie, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, throws against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. The Orioles won 6-5. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images) Getty ImagesStatistics like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) say that Guthrie is overrated, but it’s not as if FIP covers everything. The beauty of FIP is in its simplicity, as it, from a general perspective, tells you what you need to know about a pitcher’s effectiveness better than standard ERA.
It’s hard to notice value for this type of pitcher when looking at Fangraphs’ wins above replacement (fWAR), a stat based on FIP -- the assumption of what a pitcher should have been worth. Guthrie has averaged 2.2 fWAR per year with Baltimore, but Baseball-Reference’s rWAR -- which does not use FIP in its calculation, instead relying on actual performance -- has Guthrie averaging 3.5 wins per year over the same stretch. Using FIP to calculate WAR has the side benefit of keeping you from overrating many pitchers going forward based on small sample successes and luck, but when it comes to pitchers who consistently outperform their FIP, something is lost in translation.
Read Article >Report: Orioles, Rockies Swap Pitchers
Starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie of the Baltimore Orioles throws to a Tampa Bay Rays batter at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) Getty ImagesA tweet from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal mentions the same three names:
Source: #Orioles to send Guthrie to #Rockies for Lindstrom and Hammel. Confirming report by @danconnollysun. #MLB
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