On Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and why the Indianapolis Colts are taking a huge risk

Less than a year ago, Peyton Manning signed a lucrative contract extension that made him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the entire league. And yet, Manning did not take a single snap under that contract. The team that knowingly signed him to an insane deal despite uncertainty surrounding his neck surgery last summer has now formally released the future Hall of Famer. The man who took the Colts from the basement of the NFL and carried them to relevancy. The quarterback who changed their franchise with a level dedication and professionalism few players have ever exhibited, won a Super Bowl and has four MVP trophies to his name is now on the open market.

And that feels wrong.

Andrew Luck has it all. All of the athletic and intangible qualities are at Luck’s disposal. He has a strong and accurate arm to go with tremendous leadership and command of a playbook. But he hasn’t taken a single snap in the NFL. Maybe he is the next Peyton Manning, John Elway or whatever other high standard one wants to hold him to, but to ignore the possibility of any other outcome is reckless.

Manning’s future may be seen as equally, if not more, uncertain by some due to his injury. If healthy, though, nobody can question Peyton’s ability to lead an NFL team. That ability is what has created a frenzy of teams drooling over potentially adding his services.

Jim Irsay can say this isn’t about the money, but nobody believes that. And he can say this was a mutual decision based on the direction the Colts are heading, but if Indianapolis was holding the third overall pick in this year’s draft, would Peyton be looking for a new team? It’s unlikely.

No matter how many times I read, write or hear that sentence, I cannot wrap my head around it.

Andrew Luck is as ready as anyone to start as a rookie, but would it kill him to sit a year or two behind Manning before he retires? The Stanford standout is being thrown into a terrible situation. He already had monstrous expectations to live up to, but he just ousted a future Hall of Fame quarterback who had been with the Colts his entire career. To add to that, Luck will be saddled with a supporting cast in Indianapolis that is far from ideal for a first year signal-caller.

I’m not saying Andrew Luck will bust, or even that Peyton Manning could have led Indianapolis to another Super Bowl. What I am saying, however, is that there are no sure things in the NFL Draft. Prospects labeled “safe” go up in flames on a regular basis, because of the nature of a business that is so difficult to predict.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Luck will lead the Colts to multiple Super Bowls, and Peyton Manning will have an uninspiring end to his career.

‘Maybe’ is the key word. It’s impossible to say with certainty that Andrew Luck will be a franchise altering player, let alone one on the level of his predecessor. And it’s unfair to expect that from him.

We can say for certain that this day will go down in Indianapolis Colts history, for good or bad. The team cut its franchise quarterback of 14 years, a four time MVP and first ballot Hall of Famer, for an unproven rookie.

And that is a bigger risk than many seem to realize.