As Dan explained last night, trades defined the first round of the 2012 NFL draft. After the Colts stood firm and selected Andrew Luck with the first pick, 16 of picks in the first round were traded. Think about that, half of the first round was traded. If anyone guessed the whole first round correctly, do yourself a favor and buy a lottery ticket! I think this was huge for the draft and for the NFL and it comes down to the rookie wage scale.
Rookie Wage Scale Provides Trades Galore In First Round
Before the wage scale was in place, teams at the top of the draft would be looking at $50 million contracts to their top pick. This turned off teams from trading up because not only would they have to give up a lot of picks, they’d have to pay the prospect a TON of money as well.
This forced the bad teams to sit at the top and keep picking guys that they had to give a big paycheck to. For the teams that were consistently bad, such as the Browns, or my Redskins, that one guy was never going to be able to cover up all the holes on the roster. On top of that, the rookie would have so much expectation as the savior of the franchise and the big contract to go with it, that it put so much pressure on guys to succeed straight away. It's no surprise we have had so many busts.
But now, with the rookie wage scale all set, the teams in the mid-to-late teens are willing to move up to get that one guy who can push them over the top. We saw the Falcons do this last year in the Julio Jones trade, while the Cowboys made a similar move (although nowhere near as expensive) to get Morris Claiborne last night. But this isn't just beneficiary to the big teams looking to make the playoffs. The bad teams also benefit. They trade down and collect extra high round picks.
The Rams are a prime example. They had the second overall pick, but kept trading down until they drafted Michael Brockers at 14. But in the process of trading down, they have collected three second round picks, as well as two first round picks for the next two years. That's huge for that franchise. By the start of round three, the Rams could potentially have four new starters on their roster. Now surely those four players will improve the Rams a lot more than just Matt Kalil or Justin Blackmon would have, should they have stayed at two.
I think we’ve seen the start of a trend of draft day trades for the next few years. The bad teams will collect more draft picks and get better much quicker than we’re used to, while the better teams will be getting that special guy to push them into playoff contention. Overall, this should lead to more parity throughout the league, which just makes it even more interesting come September.
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