Can Derek Jeter Break The All-Time Hits Record?

Jeter began the 2012 season with 3,088 hits; with 75 this season he’s passed five men (Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, Robin Yount, Paul Waner and George Brett) on the list. If he continues his present pace -- he’s on pace for a career high 230 hits -- he’ll pass five more men (Cal Ripken, Napoleon Lajoie, Eddie Murray, Willie Mays and Eddie Collins). That pace would give him a total of 3,319 and tie him with Paul Molitor for ninth all-time.

Passing all five of those men isn’t likely to happen; Jeter is off to a great start and having his best offensive season since 2009. But he will turn 38 at the end of this month; no matter how great the player, they always decline. Always.

Costas hinted Friday night that Jeter might have a shot at 4,000 hits, or even breaking the all-time hits record of 4,256, held by Pete Rose.

Really, Bob? That’s 837 more hits to get to 4,000 and 1,094 to break the record. That’s an awful lot of hits for a 38-year-old player. Let’s fire up Bill James’ Favorite Toy, a tool that estimates the chances of a player hitting a milestone based on recent performance.

You can run the numbers yourself at that link, but the tool says Jeter has a seven percent chance at reaching 4,000 hits and no chance at 4,256. It projects his final hit total at 3,642, which would be fantastic -- more than all but three players: Rose, Ty Cobb and Hank Aaron.

The problem for Jeter, essentially, is that he never had overwhelming numbers in any season. Rose had 10 200-hit seasons, including one at age 38, and led his league in hits seven times. Cobb had nine such seasons, including three of 225 hits or more, and led his league in hits eight times. Jeter’s had seven 200-hit seasons, but none since that fine 2009 season when he was 35, and has led his league in hits exactly once (1999). He’s “on pace” for another 200-hit season this year, but those paces often don’t pan out.

Also, both Rose and Cobb had productive seasons at age 40 -- Rose hit .325 at that age and led the major leagues with 140 hits (in the strike-shortened 1981 season). At 40, Cobb hit .357 and had 175 hits. Cobb also had the advantage of starting at age 18; he was a full-time player at 20. Rose was 22 in his Rookie of the Year season in 1963. Jeter also started at 22, but never had the huge years that Rose and Cobb did, and both Rose and Cobb played past 40. The projection tool has Jeter retiring after his age-40 season, 2014.

It’s possible the Yankees might keep Jeter around after that; he’s got one year remaining on a three-year deal he signed before the 2011 season, although the contract has a player option for 2014 (that the Yankees can buy out for $3 million). At a certain point, he’s no longer going to have the range to play shortstop, and the Yankees are already overloaded with guys they’ll have to shift to DH by then.

Bob Costas has a keen sense of baseball history and it’s a romantic notion to think that a current player might be able to top Rose and Cobb. But Cobb had just 368 hits after he turned 38. Rose had 991, but then he played until he was 45 (and the last year and a half of that, played mostly because he could, as manager, write his own name into the lineup). It doesn’t seem likely that Jeter will do anything like that.

Still, 3,600-plus hits is an outstanding accomplishment, so far done by just four players (the three mentioned above plus Stan Musial). Jeter, Costas and Yankee fans should be proud of that, and not try to push him into a box where he doesn’t quite fit.