Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 25 Quarterbacks for 2012


Is the fantasy football landscape as we know it changing before our very eyes? Quarterbacks are putting up gaudy numbers in today’s NFL, and fantasy owners are starting to take notice, bumping the top signal callers up draft boards.
But don't be so quick to jump on that trend. While top signal callers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady certainly have some value in the first round, passing numbers across the league are up, making the position one of the deepest in fantasy football this year.
After Brady and Rodgers, the likes of Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Michael Vick and Tony Romo all have a chance at elite numbers this season. Throw Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan into the mix, and the position runs very deep.
The strategy for quarterbacks this year, as it should be every year, is to pay attention to value. How big of a drop-off will there realistically be between Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford? How about Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers? Odds are it won’t be huge. But how big will the drop off be between Chris Johnson and a running back you could get in the third or fourth round, say Issaac Redman? The point is, waiting on a quarterback is likely the smart move this season, if for no other reason because the depth at the position is huge compared to some of the others.
After the jump, I’ll note some overvalued and undervalued quarterbacks for this season and give my full rankings for the position.
Overvalued:
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos | ADP: 60.2
The days of Peyton Manning challenging for the top quarterback spot in fantasy football are long gone. At least, I think they are. That's the problem with Manning this year, it's so tough to tell what we're getting. His health is still very much a question mark, and Denver's offense isn't quite the offense Manning operated a few years ago in Indianapolis. Currently coming off the board in the fifth or sixth round, Manning doesn't possess much value. Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Big Ben and Jay Cutler are all going behind Manning, and can we confidently say No. 18 will outperform that whole lot?
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints | ADP: 9.3
Sean Payton’s absence in New Orleans concerns me. Not overly so, but enough for me to avoid Drew Brees at his current ADP. The Saints locked Brees up to a lucrative contract, which is comforting, but I still believe there is enough of a drop-off between the top two quarterbacks (Rodgers and Brady) and Brees. He will likely finish the season as a top-five quarterback once again, but I don’t think he will be worth a first round pick.
Undervalued:
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 36.2
Last season was a disaster in Philadelphia, and Michael Vick played a part in that. Owners who drafted Vick were likely frustrated, as nearly everything went wrong for the scrambling quarterback. Everything went wrong and yet Vick still managed to finish as the No. 6 fantasy quarterback. With Desean Jackson happy and Michael Vick healthy, it would be fair to assume a bit of a turnaround from the Eagles’ offense this season. Even a marginal improvement would make Vick a top five quarterback. Sure, Vick is probably going to miss a couple of games due to his aggressive running, but he will also win a lot of fantasy weeks by himself. Is there another quarterback with Vick’s upside? In the fourth round, why not take a shot on him?
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 93.4
Big Ben is another player fantasy owners can buy low on after an injury-plagued season. The Steelers upgraded the offensive line and brought in Todd Haley to run the offense. Haley guided Kurt Warner to fantasy dominance back in 2008, and made Matt Cassel a respectable weapon during his time in Kansas City. Imagine what he'll be able to do with Roethlisberger's arm and the weapons the Steelers have on offense. Roethlisberger will be an excellent starting quarterback in fantasy, and his average draft position makes him one of the biggest values at the position in 2012.
QUARTERBACK RANKINGS
I’ve ranked the top 25 quarterbacks for fantasy football. Beyond the top 25 is a complete crapshoot, and most of those players will go un-drafted in the majority of leagues. These rankings will be updated as training camps and preseason rolls along.
Fire away in the comments with any comments, complaints, questions or suggestions for fantasy article you would like to see on the site. Feel free to contact me on Twitter with any questions as well @MatthewFairburn
| 1. Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | Bye: 10 | |||
| It's tough to pick any other player as the top fantasy football quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is not only going to pile up ridiculous passing statistics, but he'll also scrounge up fantasy points with his rushiing ability. Provided he and the rest of the offense say healthy, Rodgers should warrant a mid to late first round pick in most formats. | ||
| 2. Tom Brady | New England Patriots | Bye: 9 | |||
| Tom Brady is the only other quarterback in the same league as Aaron Rodgers. He posted another banner year, and with the new weapons the Patriots brought in, I would have no reservations about drafting him at the tail end of round one. He doesn't pose the same threat on the ground that Rodgers does, though, so he is just a bit behind Green Bay's signal caller. | ||
| 3. Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers | Bye: 6 | |||
| Not many people saw Cam Newton's rookie year coming. While a sophomore slump is always a possibility, there's reason to believe the former Heisman winner could be even better in 2012. Newton posts Michael Vick-like rushing numbers to go with his developing passing game. He has the upside to be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2012. Where would I draft him? Mid to late second round. | ||
| 4. Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints | Bye: 6 | |||
| I went into detail on Drew Brees above, and while I consider him to be overvalued, he is still in a position to light up fantasy scoreboards again in 2012. I wouldn't draft him in the first round, but if Brees slid to the end of the second round or beginning of the third round, I would think long and hard about adding him to my roster. | ||
| 5. Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | Bye: 5 | |||
| Matthew Stafford was my go-to quarterback in all of my fantasy drafts last year. I reached to grab him, hoping he would stay healthy and it paid off, as Stafford tossed 41 touchdowns. Detroit's offense is still pass-happy, and Calvin Johnson will still be catching passes from Stafford. There's no reason to expect a regression, but Stafford doesn't present quite as much value as he did a year ago. Still, if he's sitting there in the middle of the third round, he's worth a look. | ||
| 6. Michael Vick | Philadelphia Eagles | Bye: 7 | |||
| I touched on Michael Vick above. The Eagles passing attack is due for a bounce-back season, making Vick and his receivers excellent buy low options in 2012 fantasy drafts. If he lasts until the fourth round, he's a steal. | ||
| 7. Tony Romo | Dallas Cowboys | Bye: 5 | |||
| Tony Romo always seems to be undervalued. Regardless of whether or not you think he is ever going to lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl, it's tough to ignore the consistent numbers he puts up and teh amount of talent he has around him in Dallas. If he's sitting there in the fifth round, how can you pass up that value? | ||
| 8. Phillip Rivers | San Diego Chargers | Bye: 7 | |||
![]() | Phillip Rivers lost a lot of velocity on his passes last season. No injury was disclosed, but something must have been bugging him. He lost his No. 1 wide receiver this offseason and his regression was alarming, but now Rivers presents value in fantasy drafts. He's still a safe bet to finish in the top ten quarterbacks and has the upside to crack the top five. Start looking for Rivers in round six. | ||
| 9. Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh Steelers | Bye: 4 | |||
| Another player I talked about above, Ben Roethlisberger figures to be an excellent value pick in fantasy drafts this season. The addition of Todd Haley to an offense that boasts elite wide receivers will make Big Ben a top ten quarterback. With his ADP in the seventh round, it's tough to argue about his value. | ||
| 10. Peyton Manning | Denver Broncos | Bye: 7 | |||
| Peyton Manning may be overvalued, but it's tough to place him outside the top ten on upside alone. He will have some decent weapons at his disposal, and if his health isn't an issue, which is a big if, he can be relied upon as a top ten quarterback. He doesn't present a ton of value until round seven or eight. | ||
| 11. Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | Bye: 7 | ||
![]() | Matt Ryan quietly passed for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. Many were expecting a bit more from Ryan, but he took quite the step forward in 2011. Dirk Koetter steps in as the offensive coordinator and figures to open things up in the passing game with Michael Turner slowing down. Roddy White and Julio Jones present one of the most dangerous wide receiver tandems in the league, and it's fair to expect another step forward from Ryan this season. Ryan has plenty of upside, especially for an eight round pick. | |
| 12. Eli Manning | New York Giants | Bye: 11 | ||
| Eli Manning had a breakout year of sorts last season, passing for nearly 5,000 yards and 29 touchdowns. I think he'll be a bit overhyped coming off a Super Bowl victory, and the Giants may suffer a hangover as a whole. It's mostly a gut feeling that Manning won't live up to his draft position, but he should still be a quality starter. | |
| 13. Jay Cutler | Chicago Bears | Bye: 6 | ||
| Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are back together again. The last time the two played with one another Cutler passed for 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. Not too shabby. I get the feeling that Cutler will be my backup quarterback on a few of my teams. | |
| 14. Matt Schaub | Houston Texans | Bye: 8 | ||
| The Houston Texans no longer operate a pass-happy attack. Arian Foster has become the center of attention for that offense, and Schaub's fantasy value has taken a hit as a result. Add to that his injury issues, and he is more of a fantasy backup at this point. | |
| 15. Robert Griffin III | Washington Redskins | Bye: 10 | ||
| We all saw what Cam Newton did in his rookie season, and while that might cause owners to get giddy over Robert Griffin III, he is a big question mark as a fist year signal caller. That being said, he has tons of upside, and his rushing ability makes him even more dangerous in fantasy football. He has all the tools and decent weapons surrounding him in D.C. to potentially make a smooth transition to the NFL. | |
| 16. Andrew Luck | Indianpolis Colts | Bye: 4 | ||
| Andrew Luck will start right out of the gate in Indianapolis and has scrambling ability to go with his elite passing tools. The Colts aren't exactly brimming with talented playmakers and Luck is a rookie, so expectations need to be tempered a bit. Still, Luck could be a No. 1 quarterback by the end of the year. | |
| 17. Jake Locker | Tennessee Titans | Bye: 11 | ||
| Jake Locker is a bit of a forgotten man. He didn't see as much playing time as his 2011 classmates, but he made the most of the playing time he did have. I had him rated as the top quarterback in his draft class due to his strong arm and athleticism. Both will make him a dangerous fantasy weapon. he is only ranked this low because he is not a lock to start for the Titans. If he wins the job, I'll shoot him up the board. | |
| 18. Carson Palmer | Oakland Raiders | Bye: 5 | ||
| Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self, but he still present some value as a backup quarterback. He has some decent receiving options and posted solid numbers after being traded last season. Palmer will now have a full offseason and should be more comfortable in the offense. | |
| 19. Ryan Fitzpatrick | Buffalo Bills | Bye: 8 | |
![]() | Ryan Fitzpatrick was a bonafide top ten quarterback before going down with injury last season. Assuming he and Stevie Johnson can stay on the field this year, Fitzpatrick will be a decent spot start in all fantasy formats. |
| 20. Josh Freeman | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Bye: 5 | |||
| Josh Freeman had a pretty disastrous 2011 campaign. Vincent Jackson is in the fold, so a reasonable step forward can be expected, but Freeman isn't anything more than a fantasy backup at this point. | ||
| 21. Joe Flacco | Baltimore Ravens | Bye: 8 | ||
| Joe Flacco doesn't have a ton of upside, but there's not a lot of downside either. He'll be a bye week filler unless he takes a huge step forward. | |
| 22. Christian Ponder | Minnesota Vikings | Bye: 11 | ||
| Christian Ponder is a very talented kid, but he turns the ball over a lot. The Vikings' offense has it's fair share of playmakers, but Ponder still needs some seasoning as a passer before being trusted by fantasy owners. | |
| 23. Matt Cassel | Kansas City Chiefs | Bye: 7 | ||
| Much like Joe Flacco, I don't envision a ton of downside with Matt Cassel, but there certainly isn't much upside either. The Chiefs rely on defense and the running game, and Cassel has no arm strength, so there isn't a ton of room for growth here. | |
| 24. Sam Bradford | St. Louis Rams | Bye: 9 | ||
| Sam Bradford was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last year. A combination of injuries and lack of talent around him contributed to a huge sophomore slump. The Rams lost Brandon Lloyd but drafted a slew of receivers. It remains to be seen if Bradford will be able to stay upright and gel with his new wideouts. | |
| 25. Alex Smith | San Francisco 49ers | Bye: 9 | ||
| Alex Smith has probably peeked in terms of his passing statistics. In a run-oriented offense, Smith doesn't get enough volume to warrant a weekly start in fantasy football. | |
On the bubble: Tim Tebow, Andy Dalton, Matt Flynn, Mark Sanchez, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert




































