Tuesday, Jacob Turner started in place of the injured Drew Smyly for the Tigers. He faced the Angels, and he managed to retire six of them, which isn't that bad, relative to the whole population. He also allowed three of them to homer and seven of them to score, which is why he wasn't permitted to try for a seventh out. The Tigers lost 13-0, and though a loss is a loss, a 13-run loss leaves an impression.
The Truth* About The Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers are said to be anxiously searching for a starting pitcher on the trade market. That’s all well and good, but the Tigers’ starters have been kind of terrific.
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Not because of Tuesday, but not not because of Tuesday, the Tigers are said to be very active in trade talks. They'd like to find an everyday second baseman, but more importantly and urgently, they're kicking the tires on a load of available starting pitchers. They've been rumored to be in on Ryan Dempster, they've been rumored to be in on Jason Vargas, and they've been rumored to be in on Francisco Liriano. Certainly, the Tigers have talked about other guys, too. The Tigers appear insistent on adding a starter, sooner rather than later.
Why? Behind Justin Verlander, the rotation's been inconsistent. Compared to last year, the rotation's ERA is up 18 points, and that includes the 2011 rotation before the Doug Fister trade. Additionally, there's this:
The Tigers are averaging 5.77 innings per start, down from 6.12 last year. That amounts to a drop of one out per game. It may not sound like much, but Leyland acknowledged the difference has been “huge.”
So the Tigers are looking to make a trade, and right now it looks like they probably will make a trade. If they can improve their starting rotation, then more power to them. They're currently battling in the AL Central, within striking distance of the first-place White Sox. The Tigers were supposed to be a title contender, so if they can get better they ought to try to do that.
But there’s a funny thing about this year’s Tigers starting rotation. First, FIP and xFIP. If you don’t know about them, learn about them. They’ll play a pivotal role in the argument that follows. Now, the argument.
We begin by looking at American League starting rotations, because it’s always important to put statistics in context. It doesn’t do us any good to know what a player has done if we don’t know what an average player does. A helpful and hopefully fairly simple table:
| AL | BABIP | HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | IP/start |
| 2011 | 0.293 | 10.0 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 4.04 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | 0.296 | 12.1 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.17 | 5.9 |
AL starter ERA is up. So is FIP, and so is xFIP, while innings-per-start has taken a small tumble. It’s interesting to see that jump in home runs per fly ball, but perhaps there’s been a slight change in what’s been identified as a fly ball. Or perhaps there have just been more home runs per fly ball so far. This is our context. Now let’s look at the Tigers’ starting rotations:
| Tigers | BABIP | HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | IP/start |
| 2011 | 0.292 | 9.9 | 4.10 | 3.94 | 3.91 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | 0.319 | 12.3 | 4.28 | 3.78 | 3.64 | 5.8 |
We mentioned the drop in innings per start. We’ve seen a similar drop league-wide. We observe a jump in home runs per fly ball, but we observed a nearly identical jump, league-wide. The Tigers’ starting ERA is better than average, their FIP is better than average, and their xFIP is better than average.
As a matter of fact, while the Tigers have the AL's seventh-best rotation ERA, they have the AL's best rotation FIP and the AL's best rotation xFIP. There's a strong argument to be made that the Tigers have had the American League's best starting rotation to date. That despite Tuesday's ugly start, and despite Doug Fister's injuries.
The article linked earlier mentions Fister and Rick Porcello as having been inconsistent. Fister's allowed a few too many homers, but his meaningful peripherals are strong. Porcello has been almost exactly what he was in 2011. Smyly's been effective, if less so recently than he was at first. Max Scherzer has been striking everybody out.
The Tigers' rotation has been good, and -- this won't surprise you -- its collective talent has been partially obscured by the team having perhaps the AL's worst defense. Only the Royals have allowed a higher batting average on balls in play than the Tigers (and by just one point). By Defensive Runs Saved, the Tigers have been the worst. By UZR, the Tigers have been the worst. Everybody knew coming into the season that the Tigers had sacrificed defense for offense, and the defense has been exactly as bad as expected.
Prince Fielder has started all but one game at first base. Miguel Cabrera has started all but three games at third base. Delmon Young has thankfully been removed from the outfield, but Brennan Boesch hasn't been and Boesch isn't a favorite of the numbers.
We struggle to measure individual player defense, anyway. We struggle a lot less to measure team defense, and the Tigers’ defense has been bad, causing the Tigers’ rotation to look worse. Now, I can’t declare this with absolute certainty. Lacking the proper data, it’s possible that the Tigers’ pitchers have been allowing less-fieldable balls in play. More line drives, basically. That can’t be written off. But that can be considered less likely than the alternate explanation, especially because we anticipated the alternate explanation.
The Tigers are free to explore starting-pitcher options, and if and when they make a trade, it will probably help. Just because the Tigers have had good starters doesn’t mean they couldn’t improve, and there’s nothing wrong with bringing in depth since starter depth often ends up being pretty critical. Any improvement is helpful when you’re battling for a playoff spot. Just understand that the Tigers’ rotation hasn’t been a weakness, or even anything other than a relative strength. If the Tigers add a starter, they won’t be filling a need. They’ll be taking something strong and making it stronger.
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