Sunday afternoon, the Brewers beat the Diamondbacks 2-1, and the win was hardly conventional. The Brewers won in the bottom of the ninth, and you might've heard about how, if you weren't already watching the game live. The video highlight is available and ready to be watched right here. Carlos Gomez was standing on first, and he broke for second. The throw to second was wild, and Gomez made his way for third. The throw to third was wild, with the ball leaving the field of play, so Gomez was given one more base. That one more base was the most important base of all, and the Brewers won the game.
Patrick Corbin, Carlos Gomez, And An Inning Most Unusual
Sunday afternoon, the Brewers beat the Diamondbacks when Carlos Gomez scored on a pair of errors during a stolen-base attempt. Here we note perhaps the three most amazing things.
It was all scored as a stolen base and a pair of errors, and obviously it was a weird way to win and lose a baseball game. That much is evident just from watching the video clip. My purpose here is to add some context and commentary, because there’s a lot about this event sequence that’s interesting, and that can only add more color to a colorful story. I present to you three things that are facts.
You don't run on the Diamondbacks
Gomez was inserted as a pinch-runner after Aramis Ramirez drew a leadoff walk. Gomez of course is very fast, and it's the only skill of his that's always been reliable. Most people figured that Gomez would try to get himself in scoring position. But a problem was that Gomez was on base with a lefty Patrick Corbin on the mound and Miguel Montero behind the plate. Most stolen-base attempts are successful, but this wasn't going to be most stolen-base attempts.
On the season, about 75 percent of stolen-base attempts against right-handed pitchers have been successful. Just under 69 percent of stolen-base attempts against left-handed pitchers have been successful. That’s the less-important factor here. Montero has thrown out 22 of 44 would-be base-stealers. Last year, he finished at 32 out of 80, which was a worse rate, but still a league-leading rate. On average, catchers throw out 27 percent of would-be base-stealers, but no team and catcher have been better this year about shutting down the running game than the Diamondbacks and Miguel Montero.
In 2012, more stolen-base attempts against the Diamondbacks have been unsuccessful than successful. In second place are the A's, at 30 and 50. The Diamondbacks have been unparalleled in this department, and that's what Gomez was planning to run against. He ran, and he won the ballgame. This was like Dave Roberts, except more impressive and with way lower stakes.
Corbin knew what Gomez was doing
As a lefty pitching from the stretch, Patrick Corbin was looking right at Carlos Gomez at first base, and Corbin let Gomez know it. After Ramirez walked and was pinch-run for, the game featured seven more pitches. Corbin threw over to first base nine times. Read that again so that you get it. Between the walk and the end of the game, Corbin threw seven pitches and made nine pick-off attempts. Here’s the first of them:
Here’s the last of them:
Actually, correction -- here’s the last of them, maybe:
I don’t know if that last one counts, because Corbin didn’t throw the ball. But that was his tenth non-pitch with Gomez on first base. And that .gif just slays me. Here’s Corbin, trying to trick Carlos Gomez again. Here’s Carlos Gomez, annoyed and not giving a f***. Gomez had Corbin figured out. Gomez was so deep in Corbin’s head he was uncovering repressed memories, and at no point must Corbin have felt more powerless about Gomez than he did right here.
Nine or ten pick-off attempts. In theory, you might think each subsequent pick-off attempt would make a runner less and less likely to go, but in practice that might not be true. It might even be the opposite of true. Gomez might’ve been less likely to run after the first few throws, but then he might’ve gotten irritated and more determined than ever. Said Gomez:
“I thought he was going to throw [to first] three, four more times,” Gomez said. “I started getting ticked off. I’m telling you man, honest, I don’t like it when they throw that many times over there. Throw it to the plate, I got to go.”
By paying as much attention to Gomez as he did, Corbin might’ve increased the probability that Gomez would try to steal. Maybe that was the whole point? So many factors. But basically, the Diamondbacks are amazing at gunning down base-stealers, Patrick Corbin knew exactly what Carlos Gomez was going to do, and Carlos Gomez still stole second base. And advanced to third and home.
Corbin got the loss
Patrick Corbin made his major-league debut this past April, and since then he's lost four times. In his first loss, he allowed four runs to the Mets while retiring ten batters. In his second loss, he allowed six runs in six innings to the Rockies. In his third loss, he allowed just two runs to the Dodgers, but was out-dueled by Chris Capuano. In his fourth loss, he walked a guy and generated a fly out.
Corbin was on the mound to start the ninth Sunday, and this was the sequence:
- walk
- fly out stolen base
- error
- error
Game over, and there was no one to whom to give the loss other than Corbin. Never mind that an on-target throw to second might've gunned Gomez down. Never mind that Montero's errant throw and Gerardo Parra's errant throw had absolutely nothing to do with Corbin at all. The Diamondbacks lost, and Patrick Corbin was on the mound to watch it all, so Patrick Corbin got the loss.
If you want to try to put forth a defense of the statistic, Corbin wasn’t good. He faced two batters, and half of them reached base. He allowed himself to get distracted by Gomez and threw just four of 12 pitches for strikes. But while this might not be the worst loss in baseball history, this is enough to point out on its own how flawed the statistic is. Did you know that pitcher wins and losses as statistics are flawed? I will end with this bombshell.
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