Should the $83 million Nets roster be entrusted to P.J. Carlesimo?

The Brooklyn Nets are entrusting an $83 million roster to a coach with a .411 career record. On the surface, that seems like a very Nets thing to do. But it's actually not a bad road to take in this case.

Howard Beck of the New York Times has rung some bells to ascertain how the Nets will proceed this season after firing Avery Johnson last week. The apparent gameplan: chase Phil Jackson whenever he seems open to it (if ever), and hang with P.J. Carlesimo until then. The Nets are 3-1 under Carlesimo, with a lovely win over P.J.'s last team (the Thunder) as well as victories over the abysmal Cavaliers and Bobcats, and a loss to the Spurs. For the season, Brooklyn is 17-15, No. 7 in the East.

Under Johnson, the Nets' offense certainly wasn't as good as it should have been. With a Rolls Royce backcourt like Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, and an excellent scoring center like Brook Lopez, you should be in the top five in offense. Of course, molding an offense takes time, something the Lil' General really wasn't afforded. But the offense currently ranks No. 11; for all of Williams' complaining about not being able to get the offense, he had it in the top-10 much of the early season. The offense wasn't the biggest problem. It was defense, where Johnson was supposed to shine and where studies show coaching has the biggest impact.

The Nets are currently No. 21 in defense. While Lopez is an iffy defender and poor rebounder, a team playing Gerald Wallace, Johnson and Reggie Evans major minutes should be better than No. 21. (Williams has long been uneven as a defender. Lopez's main problem is the pick-and-roll and rotating to help, though he's quite a good shotblocker.) Again, coaches are more likely to have major impacts on defense than on offense. Here are where Carlesimo's teams have ranked in defense in the past.

With the exception of the first season in Oakland and that tanktastic farewell to Seattle (R.I.P.), that's a fine defensive record for the coach. (Frankly, it's amazing that Sonics team got to No. 22 in defense.) That first season in Portland, Carlesimo took over a Rick Adelman squad that had finished No. 12 in defense in 1994. The rosters didn't change much at all. So the data suggests that Carlesimo has been a pretty good defensive coach over the years, despite a 207-297 career record as head coach.

So if the theory goes that talent and fit primarily determines how good your offense will be, and coaching, talent and effort determine how good your defense will be ... then Carlesimo isn't a bad fit at all. There are elite defensive coaches not named Phil Jackson available -- the Van Gundy brothers lead the pack, and there's always Larry Brown. (Yes, he's coaching SMU. But he's been known to pull the old David Blaine.) But Carlesimo has the advantage of seeing (most of) this roster for a year plus. Well, he's seen Deron and Kris Humphries that long, and he had Wallace part of last season.

The same applies to shooting defense: opponents shoot better when Williams is on the floor, but worse when Johnson, Lopez and/or Wallace are playing. Hump is basically break even in this category, and Andray Blatche has a negative on-off here. It's worth noting that while the overall and shooting defense numbers absolve Lopez of blame, he is shown to be the major rebounding problem: the Nets clear the glass much better with basically anyone other than Lopez at center. But shooting defense is more important, as the overall defense numbers show.

So the key for Carlesimo will be to do essentially what Mike Woodson has done in New York: get his star to do enough on defense while letting him lead the offense to great heights. That will require buy-in from D-Will, who like Carmelo Anthony is taking heat from the media and fans. It'll also require Williams to start shooting the ball well so he's not a drain on both ends. If Wallace can get healthy and Williams comes around, this team can still end up with home court advantage in the first round.