Kentucky Derby 2013 contenders: Itsmyluckyday

Positives: I’ll state my bias right off the bat in this preview - I really like Itsmyluckyday and the way he’s developed as a three-year-old colt this spring. He had a couple of tough races at the end of his juvenile campaign but came back with a vengeance on New Year’s Day to dominate the Gulfstream Park Derby. After another excellent performance in the G3-Holy Bull when he soundly defeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby, Itsmyluckyday took a two month break before his final Derby prep, the G1-Florida Derby, where he finished second to the excellent Orb.

While Itsmyluckyday was clearly beaten by Orb in the Florida Derby, that race may serve as the perfect spring board to a top level effort on the first Saturday in May. Should this colt take a step forward from his final prep race and, possibly, get back to his form when he won the GP Derby or the Holy Bull, he should be right in the thick of things in the final furlongs.

Itsmyluckyday has a good deal of tactical speed at his disposal and prefers to sit just off the pace in the early stages of his races. The times where he was shuffled back to four or more lengths behind the leaders, he’s struggled to finish up with any authority. The post position draw will be important for this colt as an inside draw could make things exceptionally difficult to maneuver into a prime stalking position after breaking from the gate.

Negatives: As with many colts in the Derby year after year, we ask the question of ‘how far do they want to run?’ His sire, Lawyer Ron, was excellent at his four-year-old year and learned to stretch his speed quite effectively at Saratoga in the summer of 2007. Lawyer Ron was a bit of a late developer, and I say “a bit” because while he was quite good during his run to the Kentucky Derby in 2006, he got much better as a four-year-old when he finally figured out how to relax early.Will Itsmyluckyday follow in his sire’s footsteps, or is he ready to win at ten furlongs at this point in his career? We’ll find out soon enough.