2013 NASCAR at Kentucky Speedway race day weather forecast

There has been little to no improvement in the weather forecast for tonight’s Sprint Cup race at Kentucky Speedway. Showers and storms remain a threat from early afternoon into mid to late evening. All of this activity is possible as a disturbance moves south and settles across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday.

The combination of daytime heating and the disturbance settling in over the region, showers and storms are likely from the afternoon into the evening. The problem with this forecast is the nearly impossible task of forecasting when and where all of this rain activity will develop. If rain does move over the track, trying to answer when will it arrive and for how long ? These are just questions I can not answer.

The above animated image is a models interpretation of the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Don’t look at this as “exactly how the radar will look at the given times” but as what could happen tomorrow. As a meteorologist, I look at the above images and see that clusters and even lines of showers and storms are possible, and could affect the NASCAR race tomorrow evening.

DO WE GET THE NASCAR SPRINT CUP RACE IN TONIGHT? If I had a dime for every time someone asked me that this week. I think the odds of racing tonight are between 40 and 50 percent. There is a part of me that thinks these odds are too high but I know NASCAR will do all it can to make sure the fans see racing . Because there is the possibility these storms and showers miss the track I factored that scenario into the probability as well. Honestly, I am leaning more towards 40 percent we race than 50 percent.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GETTING AN OFFICIAL RACE? I’d place the odds the same as above, between 40 and 50 percent. This is such a difficult forecast.

IF I HAD TICKETS TO THE RACE WHAT WOULD I DO? I will never tell a NASCAR fan they should go or not go to a race based on the weather. I think it is important for fans to research the forecast from various sources and make the best decision they feel most comfortable with.

If it were me and I was going to the race tonight, I’d still go because there is still a chance they race and maybe get half a race complete, but I would also have a backup plan for Sunday just in case.

WHAT DOES SUNDAY’S FORECAST LOOK LIKE? Looks a lot like Saturday’s weather forecast. The same system that will bring storms today and tonight will do the same thing on Sunday.

With a forecast like this I try to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I commit myself to giving NASCAR fans the most honest weather forecast I can. I call it like I see it, the good, the bad and sometimes the ugly. I will admit, it is hard many times to remove the NASCAR fan in me from the meteorologist.