FanDuel lineup tips and advice, Week 12: TV ads aren’t reality

The commercials for FanDuel always show the start of a sample roster. As one of the big winners talks about how cool the game is, an amorphous clicker selects some players.

Next time one of the ads comes on, watch who they select. I ran a quick YouTube search, and the first one I came across was from this preseason, and the player selected Peyton Manning ($10,200 salary in the example), Jamaal Charles ($9,800), Adrian Peterson ($9,300) and Dez Bryant ($8,500) before the screen moved on.

• I don't even care about the "but it was Jacksonville" caveat, the fact that Tony Romo ($8,700) put up 21 fantasy points in his last game is pretty amazing, considering he did it was a broken freaking back. Now with two more weeks of healing and against a Giants team that struggles against quarterbacks, he's a strong option this week.
• Ryan Tannehill ($8,100) has seen his rushing yards fall off a little the last two weeks, but that was against Detroit and Buffalo, two stout run defenses. They'll rise this week. No, you aren't drafting quarterbacks for rushing ability, but being ability to count on a handful of that type of points always keeps a quarterback's floor low.
• I still don't really believe in the long-term viability of Josh McCown ($7,500), but he's had two decent games in a row since getting the starting job back, and this week he faces a very poor Chicago pass defense, so that hot streak could easily go another week.

• I still think Peyton Manning ($9,900) is right around the top of the weekly quarterback rankings, and in a full-season league, I wouldn't have any problem at all using him. But I wouldn't invest in him in weekly; with so many of his weapons either out or banged up, and against a strong Miami defense, this isn't the week to splurge on Manning.
• Sunday is the Atlanta Falcons' first game in Atlanta since Oct. 12 (Week 6), which is insanely long ago. That ought to bode well for Matt Ryan ($7,600), but it's the only reason for optimism amid a whole host of bad signs. He hasn't had more than 15 fantasy points in a game since Week 4.

• Eddie Lacy ($8,600) has only had more than 100 rushing yards in a game once all season, but he has been contributing more and more in the receiving game, and has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage total three weeks in a row and four of his last six. His early season disappointment is behind him.
• Slowly, the FanDuel salary for Justin Forsett ($7,700) is climbing, but it still hasn't reached a level commensurate with his production; the dude has seven straight games with at least nine fantasy points.
• The Colts have a real penchant for giving up big games to running backs (recall the Eagles in Week 2, or the Texans in Week 6, or the Patriots just a few days ago). And Denard Robinson ($7,500) is easily the Jaguars' best offensive weapon. Could be a big game.

• It looks like the Saints will be getting Pierre Thomas back this week, and that return, combined with the fact that Mark Ingram ($7,900) was never as good as he looked a few weeks ago, means that Ingram makes for a bad fantasy investment this week.
• I don't for a second think that LeGarrette Blount's return to New England will be a significant Week 12 factor - maybe down the road, but not yet. But Jonas Gray ($6,700) makes for a bad play this week for separate reasons. Regression, obviously, and the stout Detroit run defense, just to name two.

• I could give you a few guesses as to the team that has struggled the most against fantasy receivers this year and you wouldn't get it. It's the Texans, and I wouldn't have been right, either. Against the Bengals, that should mean big things for A.J. Green ($8,600).
• The Vikings are expected to have both Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright on the field Sunday after injury concerns all week, but neither will be at full strength. The team's running backs are also banged up. And Kyle Rudolph is an enormous question mark at tight end. In short, Cordarrelle Patterson ($5,800) is the only healthy component that team has, and while I wouldn't anchor a roster with him, he's an intriguing bargain play.
• Why in the world is Malcom Floyd ($5,600) still as cheap as he is? He's had at least five fantasy points in every game but one this season, and is easily the most reliable San Diego receiver.

• Sort of like the Manning point at the top, I still fully believe in Calvin Johnson ($8,800) and would still draft him early if we were starting over. I even think he'll probably be fine in Week 12, because he's just so dang good. But against the same New England pass defense that shut down T.Y. Hilton a week ago, he just isn't worth the risk.
• The Josh Gordon ($7,800) love is a little bit out of control. If you've been sitting on him all season in a season-long league, sure, this is the reason you've stashed him for so long. But this isn't the time to be using him in a weekly.

• Sure, maybe it's obvious to recommend Coby Fleener ($5,400) with Dwayne Allen out and against that Jacksonville defense. But whatever, just because something might be obvious doesn't mean it might not be right.
• The Seahawks' defense has overall gotten back to basically fine, but the team does still struggle against tight ends. The Cardinals' John Carlson ($4,900) isn't any great shakes, but he's a possible steep bargain with some surprising upside.

• Through four games, Martellus Bennett ($6,200) had 13 fantasy points a game. Since then, it's been 5.8. He has done the same sort of thing (hot start, then fade) multiple years in the past as well. If you didn't use him before, you missed the window.

• Even in a neutral-site game on the wrong day and with short practice, the Bills ($5,200) are still a great defense against the very generous offense of the Jets. Even with all those factors, I think Buffalo's defense is a good investment.
• The Chargers averaged 27.3 points a game through Week 6, and they've averaged 13.5 since. It just isn't the team it was early in the season, and now San Diego faces a team in St. Louis ($4,800) that shut down the Broncos last week.

• It's not that I don't think the San Francisco ($5,300) defense is good, and it's not that I don't think the Washington offense is bad. It's that there is just no way a team with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Alfred Morris is this bad on offense, no matter what version of Robert Griffin III is throwing the ball.