As February is now well underway, it’s time for SB Nation’s Bracketology to become a twice weekly affair. These Friday posts won’t quite be as long as my full Tuesday updates. As the month goes on, I’ll focus a bit more on the bid picture in general, but today I wanted to give you a quick look at where things stand heading into the weekend.
Bracketology: LSU, Tennessee drop out; Richmond, BYU slide in
Syracuse, Arizona, Florida and Wichita State hold steady at the top of Chris Dobbertean’s first Friday bracket update of 2014. As usual, there is no such stability on the bubble, which sees a few changes since Tuesday’s projection.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll run through some of more significant changes since Tuesday after today’s projection and rundown.
New teams are indicated by an asterisk (*), while teams shifted for bracketing purposes are marked with a caret (^).
| (1) EAST New York (Fri/Sun) | (2) WEST Anaheim (Thu/Sat) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | San Diego (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Syracuse (ACC) | 1 | Arizona (Pac-12) |
| 16 | Davidson/VMI | 16 | Weber State (Big Sky) |
| 8 | Oklahoma | ↑ 8 88 | North Carolina |
| 9 | George Washington | ↑ 9 | Harvard (Ivy) |
| San Diego (Fri/Sun) | Spokane (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 55 5 | Wisconsin | 5 5 | Saint Louis (A-10) |
| ↑ 12 | Toledo (MAC) | ↓^1212 | Xavier |
| 4 | Kentucky | 4 | Virginia |
| *13 | UTEP (C-USA) | 13 | Delaware (CAA) |
| Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | ||
| ↑ 6 | Pittsburgh | 666 | Memphis |
| ↓ 11 | SMU | ^11 | Baylor/Oregon |
| 3 | Michigan | 3 | Duke |
| 14 | Stephen F. Austin (Southland) | 14 | American (Patriot) |
| Spokane (Thu/Sat) | Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↓ 7 | Oklahoma State | 7 | Connecticut |
| ↓ 10 | Providence | ↑ 10 | Arizona State |
| 2 | San Diego State (MW) | 2 | Villanova (Big East) |
| ↓ 15 | UC Santa Barbara (Big West) | 15 | N.C. Central (MEAC) |
| (4) MIDWEST Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) | (3) SOUTH Memphis (Thu/Sat) | ||
| St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | Orlando (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↑ 1 | Wichita State (MVC) | 1 | Florida (SEC) |
| 16 | Southern/Utah Valley | 16 | Robert Morris (NEC) |
| ↓ 8 | Gonzaga (WCC) | 8 | New Mexico |
| ↑ 9 | Stanford | ↑ 9 | Colorado |
| San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | Orlando (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 5 | Texas | 5 | Louisville |
| 12 | Green Bay (Horizon) | 12 | BYU/Richmond |
| ↓ 4 | Iowa | 4 | Iowa State |
| 13 | Canisius (MAAC) | *13 | Belmont (OVC) |
| San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 6 | Ohio State | 6 | UMass |
| ↑ 11 | Florida State | ↓ 11 | Minnesota |
| ↑ 3 | Creighton | ↑ 3 | Cincinnati (AAC) |
| ↓ 14 | Mercer (A-Sun) | 14 | Georgia State (Sun Belt) |
| St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | ||
| ↑ 7 | VCU | 7 | UCLA |
| ↓ 10 | California | ↑ 10 | Kansas State |
| 2 | Kansas (Big 12) | 2 | Michigan State (Big Ten) |
| 15 | Stony Brook (AE) | *15 | IPFW (Summit) |
| FIRST FOUR (Dayton) | |||
| Tuesday: To Buffalo | Tuesday: To Orlando | ||
| *16 | Davidson (SoCon) | *12 | BYU |
| *16 | VMI (Big South) | *12 | Richmond |
| Wednesday: To St. Louis | Wednesday: To Raleigh | ||
| 16 | Southern (SWAC) | ^11 | Baylor |
| 16 | Utah Valley (WAC) | ^11 | Oregon |
| BIDS BY CONFERENCE | AVOIDING DAYTON | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Big 12: 7 | SMU | Belmont | Chattanooga |
| Pac-12: 7 | Florida State | BYU | Coastal Carolina |
| ACC: 6 | Xavier | Davidson | LSU |
| Big Ten: 6 | Minnesota | Richmond | Murray State |
| AAC: 5 | LAST FOUR IN | UTEP | Southern Miss. |
| A10: 5 | Richmond | VMI | Tennessee |
| Big East: 4 | Baylor | ||
| MW: 2 | Oregon | ||
| SEC: 2 | BYU | ||
| WCC: 2 | FIRST FOUR OUT | ||
| 1-Bid Conferences: 22 | Missouri | ||
| Georgetown | |||
| Indiana | |||
| Southern Miss. | |||
| NEXT FOUR OUT | |||
| Tennessee | |||
| LSU | |||
| Clemson | |||
| Mississippi |
The top line remains the same as on Tuesday. In fact, the only change among the 16 protected seeds is a flip of the three and four seeds in the Midwest, with Creighton jumping Iowa after the Hawkeyes' Tuesday home loss to Ohio State.
It's a different story at the bottom of the at-large pool, as you would suspect. On Wednesday night, I received a prescient Twitter reply from PodKatt, manager of SB Nation's LSU blog And The Valley Shook, just after Tennessee lost in Nashville.
— Pod Katt (@valleyshook) February 6, 2014 Sure enough, the Bayou Bengals followed the Volunteers' head-scratching loss with one of their own on Thursday night, as Georgia snapped a three-game losing streak by striking LSU in Athens. As a result, the SEC is again a two-bid league for purposes of this projection, and I strongly suspect someone is going to have to cut down the nets in Atlanta for a third team to join Florida and Kentucky in the actual field of 68.
Bracketology
There is a bright side to that scenario, SEC fans. At least an automatic qualifier would avoid the First Four.
BYU and Richmond replace the flailing SEC pair in today's projection, just edging out Missouri, Indiana and Georgetown. The Spiders have an edge on their competition simply because they haven't lost any games they shouldn't have. Meanwhile, the Cougars' early-season schedule, bolstered by wins over Stanford and Texas, gives them a significant bump. Remember, the Selection Committee pays special attention to November and December because that's the part of the schedule coaches and administrators truly control.
Baylor and Oregon join BYU and Richmond in the First Four today, even though both lost to teams on the top two seed lines since Tuesday's bracket. Since teams behind them seem to be getting their acts together (Georgetown and Indiana, specifically), I don't expect either the Bears or Ducks to stick around much longer.
To close this post, here's a listing of games to watch between now and Tuesday's bracketology update. Over the weekend, be sure head over to Blogging the Bracket for my daily TV previews and morning recaps and follow me during games on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean.
Friday
Manhattan at Canisius, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Seton Hall at Villanova, 7 p.m. (FS1)
DePaul at Creighton, 9 p.m. (FS1)
Saturday
Alabama at Florida, 12 p.m. (ESPN)
North Carolina at Notre Dame, 12 p.m. (ACC Network Regional/ESPN3)
Virginia at Georgia Tech, 12 p.m. (ACC Network Regional/ESPN3)
Butler at Georgetown, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Texas at Kansas State, 1:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)
Michigan at Iowa, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
N.C. State at Miami, 2 p.m. (ACC RSNs/ESPN3)
Florida State at Maryland, 3 p.m. (ESPN2)
Providence at Xavier, 3 p.m. (FS1)
South Carolina at Tennessee, 3 p.m. (ESPNU)
West Virginia at Kansas, 4 p.m. (ESPN)
Auburn at LSU, 4 p.m. (SEC TV Regional/ESPN3)
Saint Louis at La Salle, 5 p.m. (ESPN2)
Oregon at Arizona State, 5 p.m. (FS1)
Missouri at Mississippi, 5 p.m. (SEC on FSN/ESPN3)
IPFW at North Dakota State, 5 p.m. (Midco SN/FCS Central)
Purdue at Ohio State, 6 p.m. (BTN)
Baylor at Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Cincinnati at SMU, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
VCU at St. Joseph’s, 8 p.m. (CBS SN)
Indiana at Minnesota, 8:15 p.m. (BTN)
Gonzaga at Memphis, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Wichita State at Northern Iowa, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)
San Francisco at BYU, 9 p.m. (BYU TV)
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
UCLA at USC, 10:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network)
Sunday
Michigan State at Wisconsin, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Charlotte at Southern Miss., 2 p.m. (CBS SN)
UMass at Rhode Island, 4 p.m. (CBS SN)
Connecticut at UCF, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Clemson at Syracuse, 6 p.m. (ESPNU)
Creighton at St. John’s, 7 p.m. (FS1)
Oregon State at Arizona, 7 p.m. (Pac-12 Network)
Washington at Colorado, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)
Monday
Maryland at Virginia, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Providence at Georgetown, 7 p.m. (FS1)
Iowa State at West Virginia, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Kansas State at Kansas, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Miami at Florida State, 9 p.m. (ESPNU)
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