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Come Fan with UsThursday, July 2, 2026

Michigan State vs. Virginia odds, Iowa State vs. UConn betting preview

Virginia is an underdog as a top seed while Iowa State is favored vs. UConn. See Sweet 16 odds, betting trends and predictions from Odds Shark.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

SB Nation 2014 NCAA March Madness Coverage

In 10 tournament games against 1-seeds since 1996, the 4-seed Michigan State Spartans are just 3-7 SU. The Spartans are favored to add another win to that record as 2-point chalk Friday against the 1-seed Virginia Cavaliers. This is only the second time that a 4-seed has been favored over a 1-seed since 1996; 4-seed Louisville beat 1-seed Washington the last time it happened in 2005.

Earlier in the evening, the 3-seed Iowa State Cyclones are a 2-point favorite going up against the 7-seed Connecticut Huskies.

In defeating Harvard 80-73 on Saturday, Michigan State improved to 6-1 SU and ATS over its last seven games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Michigan State’s last four Sweet 16 appearances.

Virginia bounced back nicely from a mediocre game against Coastal Carolina with a 78-60 blowout against Memphis. The Cavaliers are 18-1 SU over their last 19 games and 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine.

Top seeds are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against 4-seeds, according to the Odds Shark searchable NCAA basketball database.

Computer Predictions: 76.2-74.0 Cyclones | 67.2-66.0 Cavaliers

Madison Square Garden in New York City hosts the Michigan State vs. Virginia game at 9:57 p.m. ET on Friday. Beforehand, the Connecticut vs. Iowa State betting matchup is set to tip off at 7:27 p.m.

Iowa State was undeterred by the loss of Georges Niang to injury, defeating North Carolina 85-83 on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games with five of those games going OVER the total. Iowa State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight tournament games.

Connecticut upset 2-seed Villanova 77-65 Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Huskies are 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five games with the only loss coming to Louisville. UConn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine NCAA tournament games.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Connecticut’s last 16 games, but the total has gone OVER in both of its tournament games so far.

See the latest March Madness odds, matchup reports and trends on every game and follow live lines and your bracket picks with the free OddsShark.com odds app.

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