Editor’s Note: FanDuel is running a $1,500,000 fantasy football league in Week 11. The top 66,000 teams win cash with $100,000 paid to first place on Sunday. Join now!
FanDuel advice: Have something to prove with your lineup
Even if it wasn’t for money, I have to set good FanDuel lineups just to win brother fights. It’s important.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Every week, my brother and I text each other our FanDuel fantasy football rosters for co-criticism. We disagree on everything in life, and these rosters are no different.
(Seriously, I think Bryce Harper should have been NL MVP, he thinks Andrew McCutchen. I think Hunger Games is fun, he thinks it’s an abomination. I think he’s bad at fantasy, he thinks he’s good. Zing!)
So, a lot of the conversation after we exchange lineups is masochism. “Dude, you picked him? That’s stupid.” “Nuh uh!” That sort of thing. Brother stuff. But it also forces us both to really consider our lineups. If I just throw a lineup together without real consideration, I will send it to him, and when he criticizes me, I won’t have a comeback.
We’re brothers. I have to have a comeback. So, even before I was writing weekly good/bad situation pieces (Like this one! Scroll down!), I was considering my lineup with at least some depth. You can’t go into a brother argument unarmed. It just isn’t done.
Maybe you don’t have a brother. But every week, when you fill out your lineup, pretend you do. If you’d send your argumentative brother a lineup and, when faced with criticism, only have “I dunno, I like it” as a reason, it’s not enough. Your brother would eat you for dinner.
On to the situations look for Week 11:
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- I was down on Derek Carr ($7,700) as a rookie. I liked his ability and skills, but he didn't appear to have the decision-making. His best weapons were Maurice Jones-Drew, James Jones and Rod Streater. A second-round pick, he had seemed a stretch to win the starting job out of camp (this was back when we still thought Matt Schaub was a competent human). For most of the season, I felt fairly vindicated. He had moments, but he had bad moments, as well. This year, though, he's really improved his decision-making. And his weapons are Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, which is waaaaaaayyyyy better. And this week, they face a Lions defense that is third-worst in the league against opposing quarterbacks.
- Sometimes it pays to ask why a team has the results it does, especially if you're looking at raw, unadjusted numbers. Like, the Titans don't give up a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers. Does that mean Tennessee has a good pass defense, or that teams go away from the pass because they are beating the Titans every week? Similarly, the Texans are average against opposing quarterbacks, which is the product of (a) recent successes that include Zach Mettenberger and a forgot-how-to-play Andy Dalton, and (b) a bunch of games where teams could pull off the gas early. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400) is expected to be a full go on Sunday after surgery only a week ago, and with a high floor, two elite wide receivers and a not-daunting opponent, he could be in for some numbers.
- Early in the season, the Broncos were other-worldly against ... well, everyone, but quarterbacks in particular. By the team's bye in Week 7, quarterbacks had averaged 7.8 fantasy points a game, and that was the high-water mark. Out of the bye, Denver then held Aaron Rodgers to six points. Everything was dandy. Since then, though, the Broncos have allowed 21 fantasy points to a hurt Andrew Luck and 15 to an Alex Smith-y Alex Smith. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler ($7,000) has put up at least 17 fantasy points in every game since getting healthy. He has a high floor, is facing a defense on the downswing and is certainly a contrarian play that, if you use him and he succeeds, will give you an advantage over just about everyone else.
Bad situations
- It's the first game in nine weeks for Tony Romo ($8,000). Yes, he's great, and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten and Darren McFadden make for a pretty good three-headed monster of weapons, and I think Weeks 11-17 Tony Romo will be a heck of a fantasy option to have had stashed all year in season-long leagues. But this is a dude who hasn't played in nine weeks, and he has the sixth-highest salary at the position? Too risky for me.
- The week after Marcus Mariota was huge against the Saints, he put up seven fantasy points. The week after Eli Manning was huge against the Saints, he put up 12. Andrew Luck, 14. Matt Ryan, 10. Sam Bradford, 9. Brandon Weeden, 6. Cam Newton, 15. Jameis Winston, 12. You have to go all the way back to Carson Palmer in Weeks 1 and 2 to find a quarterback who was big against New Orleans and had another 20-point game the week after that. Sorry about it, Kirk Cousins ($6,900).
Running backs
Good situations
- It started poorly for DeMarco Murray ($7,600) in Philadelphia. But it's turned around of late, with 14.4 fantasy points a game in the last five. Ryan Mathews is likely out for Sunday, which should give more touches to Murray. And then there's this: With Nick Foles at quarterback last year, LeSean McCoy averaged 8.3 fantasy points a game. Once Mark Sanchez took over, his average jumped to 11.1. Everything is shaping up well for Murray in Week 11.
- The only running back with more rushes than the 66 of Charcandrick West ($7,100) in the last three games is (you could probably guess this) Adrian Peterson, with 75. Add in West's nine receptions in that time to Peterson's six (19 targets against Peterson's seven), and his usage is crazy high. He's got 62 fantasy points in that time, more-or-less replacing Jamaal Charles' lost production. Yet he's still only $7,100, and is facing a San Diego defense that has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than anyone in the game.
- I love any time you can find a No. 1 running back whose salary starts with "5." For a cash game in particular, it's someone who is definitely going to have touches, and is definitely not going to bust your budget. But even for tournaments, a lot of touches means a quantity if not quality, and that can be helpful. Alfred Blue ($5,700) fits that bill, and while you might not love that he's playing the Jets this week, New York has allowing 19.3 fantasy points a game to opposing running backs in its last three -- after being much more dominant early in the season. And the Texans are down to T.J. Yates at quarterback, so the team might be leaning run-heavy.
Bad situations
- In the comments of one of our running-back rankings pieces this week, a reader asked if he or she was crazy for considering Charcandrick West this week over Todd Gurley ($9,200). I said that it wasn't crazy, but I'd still recommend starting Gurley -- I'm a big proponent of not getting too cute with matchups and situations in season-long fantasy and just dancing with the ones that got you there. That really doesn't apply to FanDuel, where Gurley is facing a Baltimore team that is above-average on run defense and certainly won't be scared of a passing attack featuring Case Keenum and Tavon Austin. Gurley might see a hundred men on every run.
- The last five weeks, since Miami's bye, Lamar Miller ($7,400) has averaged 20 fantasy points a game. Sunday, the team faces the Cowboys, which have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. So, why am I down on him this week? Jay Ajayi. The rookie has been back and healthy for the last two weeks and has looked great, with 89 yards on 11 carries. Miller won't be losing his job any time soon, but his absolute dominance of the touches will fade. Ajayi is very good.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- Hey, remember when Sammy Watkins put up a goose egg in Week 1 and we all chalked it up to facing Vontae Davis? Well, No. 1 receivers have been fine against the Colts since then. DeAndre Hopkins, to pick a name, had 169 yards. Yes, No. 2 receivers produce as well, but when your No. 1 is Julio Jones ($9,100), you feed him early and often, Vontae Davis be damned.
- A heavy dose of targets doesn't always have to correlate to a heavy dose of catches, yards or scores. But over time, eventually something's gotta give. The first game back to health for Davante Adams ($6,800) came in that Green Bay disaster against the Broncos, but in the two games since, he's been targeted 32 times. In the FanDuel game, which is half-point PPR, that's valuable in and of itself. Add in the fact that a guy with that sort of target numbers almost has to get yards, and yards eventually turn into scores, and he's a sneaky little play.
- This one is pretty straightforward, and I'm hardly original, but sometimes that's the game: Danny Amendola ($6,100) is priced higher than normal from him, but still well below the elite wide receivers. And he isn't Julian Edelman ... but then again, he was supposed to be. Amendola had the Edelman role in his first game in New England in 2013 until his injury, and Edelman seized the job. It's not as easy as "white guy out, white guy in," but with Edelman and Dion Lewis both done for the time being, Amendola should see a huge boost in attention.
Bad situations
- For the season, Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) is fifth in wide receiver fantasy scoring. Since Week 3, though, he's 21st. Yes, the whole season counts, but after 29 and 25 fantasy points in Weeks 2 and 3, the veteran has been good. Very good. But he hasn't been a superstar. But he's still priced as a superstar, and against a Bengals team that is sixth-best against opposing wide receivers, this is the week to avoid him.
- The argument against using T.Y. Hilton ($7,200) because Matt Hasselbeck didn't look his way a lot last time he started is silly. Hilton is the best wide receiver on the Colts, and some nebulous notion of chemistry takes a significant backseat to "Hey, throw it to the guy who is good." I'm not relatively anti-Hilton because it's Hasselbeck at the helm and they don't work well together. I'm relatively anti-Hilton because it's Hasselbeck at the helm and he's ... you know, Matt Hasselbeck. Smart, good once upon a time, no longer really starter-caliber. You know how a rising tide lifts all boats? The opposite is true, too.
Tight ends
Good situations
- The most out-of-whack ratio of player quality versus player flashiness this season has to go to Greg Olsen ($6,400). He's leading the tight end position in targets, is third in yards and fifth in touchdowns. He has a score and/or 60-plus yards in seven of nine games this season. The last time he played fewer than 16 games in a season was his 2007 rookie year, so you can feel comfortable in him playing beginning-to-end. And at $6,400, he's two grand cheaper than Rob Gronkowski, in an offense that doesn't have any other high-quality pass-catchers.
- Suns rise. Suns set. Tight ends score against the Raiders. Eric Ebron ($5,400) is next man up.
Bad situation
- Coming off a bye week, you'd think Antonio Gates ($5,900) would be healthy and ready to go. Instead, he's got problems with his hip and his knee. He carries his injuries into a game against the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-fewest points to opposing tight ends this year -- the best game a tight end has had against Kansas City is either a two-catch, 9-yard, one-score game by Kyle Rudolph or a three-catch, 69-yard game by Tyler Eifert. Neither of those is worth $5,900.
Defense/special teams
Good situations
- You probably don't need to hear this. But this San Francisco team is miserable. Just bad. Blaine Gabbert is its quarterback. Shaun Draughn is its best running back, unless it's Kendall Gaskins. Anquan Boldin is still banged up. Vernon Davis isn't even on the team anymore. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense ($5,400) isn't as good as it might have been in the past, but it's still well above average, and is playing at home. For a defense, the unit is expensive, but oh, so worth it.
- Wanna hear something crazy? One of the leagues I won last year came with Mark Sanchez as my quarterback. I know in the moment it didn't seem insane, but right now, he's a guy who couldn't beat out Sam Bradford for the quarterback job for a team with a bad offense in 2015. Last year, the team put up points. But while Sanchez was good for 15 touchdowns last year (14 passing, one rushing), he also turned the ball over a lot, with 11 interceptions and three lost fumbles (in half a season). Defenses did well against Philadelphia. The Tampa Bay defense ($4,000) gets that shot this week.
Bad situation
- I actually like the Cincinnati defense ($4,700) in full-season fantasy if you're in a league that locks add/drops down the stretch. After this week, the Bengals face St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Denver and Baltimore. That's fine-to-better. But this week, the Bengals face Arizona. Seattle's defense put up seven on the Cardinals last week, bringing the season total of defense fantasy points against Arizona to three. Yes, in nine games, the Cardinals have allowed a total of three fantasy points to defenses. Yeesh.
See More:
