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FanDuel advice: Find the best situations
I don’t need some grand story. Just find the best play and win some money.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
I was going to write my Week 12 FanDuel fantasy football preview as a Black Friday analogue — you know, find bargains, beat the shoppers, all the jazz. But I wrote about three sentences of the piece and realized it made me the biggest hack in the world.
You don’t need some grand silly parable. It’s FanDuel, and every week you’re looking for sneaky and/or productive plays that will put you in the best situation to make money. There doesn’t need to be anything beyond that.
Every week, I’m finding those good (and bad) situations) in this space. It’s a starting point for making your own lineup. Read through. Find your best lineup. Win money. Spend it on Christmas presents. Pay full price if you have to.
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- You know who doesn't scare me right now? The Seahawks' defense. The team has held opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 10 fantasy points four times this year. Those quarterbacks: Jimmy Clausen. Matt Cassel. Colin Kaepernick. And Matthew Stafford, who is at least a competent human, but still. Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer put up 20-plus on Seattle. Blaine Gabbert and Nick Foles were actually fine. The Seahawks just don't have the defense they once did. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger ($7,800) is one of the best two or three quarterbacks the Seahawks have faced all year, and has one of the league's top 1-2 receiver punches. I have no issue tossing him out there.
- Rob Ryan is out in New Orleans, of course. You know who isn't out? All those players that got Rob Ryan fired. In the long run, the loss of Ryan should mean the Saints have a better defense and quarterbacks aren't immediately expected to feast on them. In the short term? You have to like Brian Hoyer ($7,100) back in the starting role.
- The Buccaneers have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in six of their last seven games. Matt Hasselbeck ($6,400) has thrown for at least two in each of his last two starts. He's not Andrew Luck, but any marginally competent quarterback with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw should be a threat. At $6,400 for a quarterback, a successful Hasselbeck game would allow you to profit there and spend big money elsewhere.
Bad situations
- I still rank Tom Brady ($9,000) as my No. 2 quarterback of the week in our normal fantasy rankings. That's despite a rough matchup at Denver, injuries to Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and now Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson, and some recent relative-to-his-norm struggles. It's Tom Brady, and if you have him in season-long, you're rolling with him. But in FanDuel, all those caveats still apply, and it's a one-week game, so it's not a "dance with who brought you" situation. He's the second-priciest quarterback this week. Look elsewhere.
- In my head, I see "Carson Palmer ($8,100) against the 49ers" and start seeing little slot-machine number whirring about. But the thing is, the 49ers' defense is not garbage at home. It's just awful on the road. In road games, the 49ers have allowed 22.8 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks; in home games, that number is 13.4, with relative shutdowns of Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater. Don't let the short version of the story get you excited.
Running backs
Good situations
- The last three games for Mark Ingram ($7,400) have been his worst three-game stretch of the season, almost entirely because he hasn't found the end zone; he's still averaging 104.3 yards from scrimmage and 4.9 yards per carry. Add in the fact that he's still catch several passes a game (remember, FanDuel is a half-point PPR game), and the fact that the Saints are less of a pass-happy team in road games (they're at the Texans Sunday), and Ingram should be fine Sunday, even moreso if he can fall into the end zone.
- Reasons left to watch the Chargers: Jokes about Philip Rivers' billion kids. PFT Commenter jokes about Danny Woodhead. Manti Te'o girlfriend jokes (are those still a thing?). That's ... that's about it. The team can barely score anymore (23.2 points a game first five, 19.4 last five), hasn't won since Week 4 and can't stop anyone at all on defense, including the league's worst unit against opposing running backs. T.J. Yeldon ($6,500) has only been okay of late, but Sunday looks like a definite get-right.
- In season-long fantasy, most everyone who does this has advocated Thomas Rawls over Buck Allen ($6,300), because the Ravens have a miserable schedule for the fantasy playoffs, including the Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers, all in the top five in the league against opposing running backs. But for now, in Week 12, Rawls is facing a strong Pittsburgh run defense, while Allen goes against a Cleveland team that has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing running backs. Rawls is a season-long play; Allen is a Week 12 option.
Bad situations
- One of the problems we run into in fantasy is recency bias. Well, check that. One of the problems we run into in literally everything we do is recency bias. The last thing that happened is what we remember the most. Doug Martin ($7,500) came into Week 11 on a rough stretch, with 6.3 fantasy points a game in the three preceding weeks. Yes, he ran all over the Eagles in Week 11, to the tune of 235 yards. Two running backs have had 100-yard games on the Colts this year. Martin might be the third, but with his price now much higher than it was, and considering he's been bad for the better part of a month, don't get caught up in recency.
- The Dolphins have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, at 20.8 a game. That number rises to 25.4 a game in the team's last five. That would seem to bode well for Chris Ivory ($7,000). Nothing else really does, though. In nine games this year, Ivory has averaged 95 rushing yards a game — 115 in games 1-4, 43.8 in games 5-9. A week ago, he and Bilal Powell each had nine touches against the Texans. Powell dwarfed Ivory in snap count as well. Ivory tailed off late in the season last year, and he appears to be doing the same this year.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- You want to be careful of using full-season numbers sometimes. For the season, the Eagles' defense still looked at least competent until recently, when more current samples showed that the unit was falling apart. But sometimes, small samples are just representative of the whole. Washington's defense has allowed 24.9 fantasy points a game to wide receiver on the season. Over the last five games, 26 points. Since the bye (three games), 25.3. Consistency is a virtue, but consistent awfulness is ... less so. Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,100) should feast.
- The Bills seem particularly scared of opposing cornerbacks who are perceived as shutdown guys. It's one thing to go to Sammy Watkins ($6,800) a little less because Vontae Davis or Malcolm Butler is on him; it's another to just ignore the star wide receiver altogether. At some point, you need to lean on your talent and trust your good guy is better than the other team's. But that's not a problem this week, as the Bills face a Chiefs team that is friendlier to opposing receivers than those teams with particular shutdown guys.
- The absolute faceplant by the Oakland offense last week was not something I'm putting super stock in. It's still a strong unit, primarily through the air, with Derek Carr and two great receivers. Against a bad Tennessee defense this week, I'm calling for a rebound. The thing with the receivers, though, is that it's just about 50/50 which one will have a better week. When it's that close, I'm fine going for the cheaper option, which right now is Michael Crabtree ($6,500).
Bad situations
- After 6.3 catches and 10 targets a game in his first four outings, Stefon Diggs ($6,600) has seen those numbers fall to 3.7 and 5.3 the last three. He had at least 87 yards in each of the first four; he hasn't gone above 66 since. Sunday, he and the Vikings face an Atlanta defense that, overall, is below average, but is a better pass defense than it is a run defense, and is especially strong, thanks to Desmond Trufant, against No. 1 receivers. Sunday might be a really big Adrian Peterson day. It won't be a big Diggs one.
- I was all about some Jeremy Maclin ($6,200) this season. He was the only wide receiver of any count in Kansas City, and with Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce there, there still should have been ample freedom for Maclin to produce. Early in the season, he was the target monster I expected, averaging 10.4 targets a game in the Chiefs' first six games. And then, for reasons I can't really understand, that stopped, and he's averaged 5.3 since. He had at least seven targets every game in the first chunk, and hasn't had more than six since. He's not nearly as interesting as he was.
Tight end
Good situations
- I flat refuse to believe there is something inherently special about Josh McCown at quarterback. It's Josh &$%@ing McCown. That said, in four games with Johnny Manziel as his primary quarterback, Gary Barnidge ($6,500) averaged five fantasy points a game, an average that is only as high as it is thanks to 12 of 20 points coming in one game. In six games with McCown as his primary, Barnidge's per-game average is 14. Six of his seven touchdowns and all three of his hundred-yard games came with McCown. Maybe it's fluky, but the numbers are the numbers.
- In games Leonard Hankerson has played, Jacob Tamme ($5,100) has averaged 3.4 fantasy points and five targets a game. In the games Hankerson has been injured, Tamme's at 11 fantasy points and 11 targets a game. Hankerson was ruled out of Sunday's game for the Falcons, so Tamme should see a bump in looks. He's no sure thing, but at a lower price point, Tamme could offer sneaky value.
Bad situation
- We still see the Raiders as a team that gives up all the points to opposing tight ends. But after 18 points a game through the first four weeks of the season, Oakland has turned it around, allowing 6.2 to the position since, a number that would be firmly middle-of-the-pack were they to extend it for the full season. On top of that, the Titans get Kendall Wright back for Sunday's game, meaning the wide receiver will cut into targets that normally go to Delanie Walker ($6,100). Walker will see heavy play in Week 12. He shouldn't.
Defense/special teams
Good situations
- The Rams have two choices at quarterback this week: Case Keenum, who was truly awful last week and still has to pass through the league's concussion protocol, or Nick Foles, who was bad enough that he got benched for ... Case Keenum. Yeah, you want to use the Cincinnati defense ($4,800).
- There's been almost no middle ground for the Miami defense ($4,600) this year. The unit has had negative fantasy totals in five games and 12-plus in three. Only the last two games, with five points apiece, have had any variance. In a tournament situation where you're swinging for the fences, this is a unit that has definite home-run potential, and if a unit is going to be bad, it might as well be awful.
Bad situation
- I still more or less believe in the Denver defense ($4,700). There's no reason to think a defense that was that elite will have fallen his far. In season-long, I have no issue using them, even in a rough matchup against New England. But the fact that the unit has given us reason for worry is enough to shy away in a FanDuel matchup that isn't optimal.
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