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FanDuel advice: Bringing Moneyball to fantasy and gaming
These games are all about finding the market inefficiency.
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
(I’m going to try to make the truly nerdy parts of this short -- well, the non-sports nerdy parts. But sometimes, you know, I nerd out.)
I mentioned a couple days ago that my family plays a lot of Settlers of Catan. If you’re still doing the Monopoly, Risk, heaven-forbid-you-play Balderdash stuff, it’s time to step up your board-gaming.
Well, the start of Catan features a setup phase, wherein you stake claim to certain groups of resources, the quality of which is determined by a number representing a possible dice roll. In other words, resources represented by 6’s and 8’s are good, as two dice will hit those numbers a lot, while 2’s and 12’s are less helpful. There are five different resources, and you need to have a bit of all five over the course of the game.
Because the game is set up differently every time, different resources become valuable in a given game. If brick has a bunch of 2’s and 12’s, but one particular spot has an eight, well, you want to be on that spot. It’s a game of finding the market inefficiency. Moneyball in board-game form. You find what is going to be at a premium, and you make it yours.
Which brings me to FanDuel (see, the nerdy part wasn’t that long). Some weeks, there are eight quarterbacks who have interesting matchups and good situations, while only a couple running backs make sense. Some weeks, it’s the wide receivers who are at a premium. You don’t have to identify the short supply to win --” luck is as involved in fantasy football as it is in a dice roll -- but it’s certainly a head start.
This week? Honestly, it was tough. Even with all 16 teams in action, there were only so many super-fancy matchups to get excited about. But you still have to look. Below, I run through the good and bad situations (as I see them) for FanDuel in Week 14:
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- I don't care if Tom Brady ($9,300) is without Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, whatever. Dude gets his points, gets his production. He had 30 last week without any of that group, had 23 the week before with a big chunk missing. He should have Amendola this week, might get Gronkowski back, and I'm comfortable using him whoever joins him on the field.
- Looking back now, it's pretty clear (at least to me) that the struggles of Tyrod Taylor ($7,500) a few weeks back were the remnants of his midseason injury. After four touchdown passes combined in the span of five games, Taylor has thrown for three in each of his last two games, adding a Week 13 rushing score for good measure. He's totaled 53 fantasy points (in standard scoring) the last two weeks, and now gets a Philadelphia defense that has given up 13 pass TDs the last three weeks.
- The best, most productive quarterbacks are always the most expensive, of course, and take up the biggest chunk of your salary cap. That's why it's always nice to at least look at the bargain-basement guys for a possible sleeper. Well, there's not a lot this week. The cheapest starters (Nick Foles, Matt Cassel) are just unconscionably bad, and most of the next tier have some pretty damning matchups. The only real bargain-basement play I could find that appealed to me was, of all people, Johnny Manziel ($6,400), who gets a home game against a subpar San Francisco defense. Manziel has had his problems, both on and off the field, but there is some plausible upside there.
Bad situations
- Peyton Manning still leads the NFL in interceptions (by four!), which, given that he hasn't played in a month, is bloody amazing. But tied for second on that list is Blake Bortles ($7,700), with 13. He has 27 touchdown passes, which is good, but a 2:1 TD:INT rate is just bothersome for me. I'd rather look elsewhere when I'm spending that much on a passer.
- Brock Osweiler ($6,900) has gotten some nice publicity as he's led the Broncos to a 3-0 record since replacing Manning, and all credit to him for doing what the Hall of Famer was struggling to do. But in four games, Osweiler has five touchdowns against three interceptions, and he's averaging barely 200 passing yards per game. He isn't a fantasy option.
Running backs
Good situations
- The awfulness of the Saints' defense normally gets talked about as it relates to the passing game, especially since that huge Eli Manning game a while back. But the Saints' run defense is garbage as well, letting opposing running backs score more points than all but two other teams in the league. The surest thing in the Tampa Bay offense has been Doug Martin ($8,000), and that should continue against the Saints.
- When DeAngelo Williams ($7,300) regained the Pittsburgh starting gig a few weeks back, his salary shot from $5,000 to $6,500. When he had an absolutely monster game after that, it jumped again, to $7,600. One bad game, and it fell to $7,100. Well, in two games since, he's been fine --€” not that previous monster, but fine --” and yet his salary is barely climbing. Williams is undervalued right now, and you always want to find one of those.
- The Eagles appear to be more-or-less done with DeMarco Murray --€” which, whatever, we all knew he wouldn't be as good this year --€” and are setting up to get Ryan Mathews ($4,700) back for Sunday's game. Kenjon Barner has been impressive, and Darren Sproles is still around, but there's a decent chance Mathews is a No. 1 running back this week, on a $4,700 salary.
Bad situations
- Chris Ivory ($7,100) has played 11 games this year. In the first five, he averaged 20 carries per game; in the six since, he's averaged 15.8. And it's falling; he has 10 or fewer carries in two of his last three. He hasn't topped 100 rushing yards since Week 5, and has had fewer than 50 rushing yards five times in his last seven. I just don't trust him right now.
- There's been some buzz around Shaun Draughn ($6,500) of late; in four games with San Francisco, he has 37 fantasy points, including 14 last week. When Draughn was priced at the basement level, that sort of production was a nice perk. But he's salaried around other starters now, and his numbers of late are entirely quantity-over-quality; he's averaged 3.25 yards per carry with San Francisco, including only 2.8 a week ago. Don't get caught up in this.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- It's sort of like Andy Reid is the mom from Home Alone, and Jeremy Maclin ($6,900) spent the middle of the season as Kevin. Despite three big games in a row, the Chiefs barely targeted Maclin for a month there, as he averaged three catches, 5.3 targets and 32 yards per game over a four-game stretch. Suddenly, a couple weeks ago, they remembered their favorite child, and Maclin has had nine catches, 10.5 targets and 128 yards per game in his last two, plus three total touchdowns. That should continue.
- The thing the Patriots do that can be so infuriating is that they know how to shut down an opponent's top weapon. Beat them if you want, but you won't beat them with your strength. It's a smart way to play if you can make it happen. Well, the Texans' top weapon, without a close second, is DeAndre Hopkins. If Houston is going to succeed Sunday, it will be on the back of Cecil Shorts III ($5,600).
- I touched on this Friday, but with Brandin Cooks likely out Sunday, Willie Snead either out or at less than full strength, and Marques Colston approximately the age of radio, Brandon Coleman ($4,600) might be the best New Orleans wide receiver going Sunday.
Bad situations
- After some fear early in the week, Matt Hasselbeck looks good to go for Sunday's game. But even with Hasselbeck, I want no part of T.Y. Hilton ($7,000). The last time he faced the Jaguars, he got only 67 yards despite 13 targets and seven receptions. Lately, in three games with Hasselbeck starting (on this time around), Hilton has five or fewer targets twice. Yes, there was a good game in there, but he's just not consistent enough to be worth the investment right now.
- I'm not at all sure Raiders' fantasy players are doomed this week, despite facing the tough Denver defense. I will say, though, that I'm using Amari Cooper way before Michael Crabtree ($6,700). Crabtree is a death by a thousand cuts; he has more yards than Cooper, but hasn't had a single play of 40-plus yards all year. Cooper is the big-play guy. And Oakland might succeed against Denver, but it won't be the thousand cuts that do it.
Tight ends
Good situations
- There is a small chance Rob Gronkowski makes it back for Sunday, but ultimately, I doubt it. That means Greg Olsen ($6,600) gets another week as easily the top of the heap among tight ends. The Carolina tight end has at least six fantasy points in eight straight games; the next longest streak at the position is three by Julius Thomas. At a position where consistency is almost a joke, Olsen is tremendously consistent and, with six games of 10-plus points this year, he has a high upside as well.
- The Bears were still using Martellus Bennett seemingly just out of a sense of obligation, as he just hadn't been himself in a month. But with Bennett now on injured reserve, Zach Miller ($4,900) has a shot at being more of a featured guy, and he's at a steep discount.
Bad situation
- The last time Antonio Gates ($5,700) played the Chiefs, he had one catch for six yards. The Chargers' offense has gone in the tank, and the Chiefs have only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends all year, with no tight end reaching double-digit fantasy points. There's no reason at all to put money on Gates.
Defense/special teams
Good situations
- The best-case scenario for the Ravens Sunday is that Matt Schaub Of The Thousand Pick-Sixes is their quarterback. However, it's more likely the team will have to go to Jimmy Clausen, who has a chance to make some particularly ignominious history. Either way, gooooooooo Seattle defense ($5,300).
- It's been a tale of different seasons for the Detroit defense ($4,700). Through Week 4, the unit was averaging almost nine fantasy points per game. From Week 5 to Week 10, the average was exactly one point. And then the last three weeks, it's been eight per game. Meanwhile, they face the Rams, who basically have no offense at all at this point. The good times should continue.
Bad situation
- The Cincinnati defense ($4,900) has been on fire of late, averaging more than 10 points per game since the Bengals' Week 7 bye. Only problem is, the Steelers have allowed fewer points to fantasy defenses than any team but New England and Arizona, and the offense has been even better of late. In a full-season league, I'd use Cincinnati because of their dreamy rest-of-season schedule, but in FanDuel, you can do better.
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