Many expected the Atlanta Hawks to take a step back after their magical 60-win campaign last year, and after a third consecutive lopsided loss on Monday, the Hawks sit at 14-12 on the season. That's not bad, but not nearly as good as the heights of last season.
The Hawks are okay, and that’s not okay
Atlanta is just another decent team in the East after lapping the field in the first half of last season, and it’s hard to see how the Hawks ever recapture that form.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
There’s not one underlying problem with Atlanta that’s caused the regression to a negative point differential and a standing outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Instead, it’s been a myriad of issues. If anything, that’s cause for more concern: there isn’t one area that can change the club’s fortunes if improved.
The Hawks’ outlook wasn’t quite as grim before a recent three-game swoon, but there hasn’t been anything all that special about them all season. The start of the year has been an extension of the late-season malaise that plagued Atlanta last year, which is troublesome because that could simply mean this is just a good, but not great team.
Some of the problems this season can be improved upon, which offers some room for optimism. But the concern is whether that’ll even be enough to make up for the team’s inherent deficiencies.
The starting lineup is worse
The Hawks' 2014-15 starting lineup of DeMarre Carroll, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap and Al Horford was one of the most prolific in the league. Remember, four of those players were in the All-Star Game and all five earned Player of the Month honors in January.
Not only were they excellent together, but relatively good health gave them continuity throughout much of the year. That starting lineup played 915 minutes, the second-most out of any lineup in the league behind only the Los Angeles Clippers' devastating first group.
That continuity has been lacking this season with Carroll gone to Toronto. Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha (who's coming off a major injury) have both started at times, and while they've performed admirably on an individual level, it hasn't shown in the team results. The Hawks' most-used lineup this season features Bazemore in Carroll's old spot at small forward, but that group has been outscored by 5.5 points per 100 possessions in 181 minutes, per NBA.com.
Swap Sefolosha in for Bazemore, and the net rating is +6.6 in 144 minutes. However, Atlanta is only 4-7 in games in which that lineup has played, so things have fallen apart elsewhere.
The 3-point shooting is much worse
The Hawks ranked fifth in three-point makes per game (10) and second in three-point percentage (38) last season, but those numbers are down to 9.1 and 34.1, respectively.
The loss of Carroll and his near-40 percent three-point shooting again hurts in this area, although Bazemore and Sefolosha have combined to shoot a similar percentage.
The shooting of Korver (who's looking to round into form after ankle and elbow surgeries), Millsap and Dennis Schroder has been the bigger issue. Those three combined to shoot about 40 percent from deep on 11 attempts per game last year, but now they're down at about 33 percent on similar volume.
It should also be noted that Horford has significantly increased his three-point shooting volume from under one a game to over three a game. He’s making a respectable 34 percent, but that’s also contributing to the downturn in overall three-point efficiency from last year.
The rebounding is somehow worse
The Hawks’ poor rebounding was one of their few weaknesses last year, as they grabbed just over 48 percent of the available boards, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, per NBA.com.
The acquisition of Tiago Splitter was supposed to help in that area, but Atlanta is even worse on the glass this year. The Hawks have grabbed just over 47 percent of all rebounds, which is tied for the worst mark with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Splitter’s overall effect has been marginal on the boards, and it doesn’t help that he’s only played in 17 of 26 games at under 17 minutes per contest. The Hawks have a 49 percent rebound rate with him on the court compared to just under 47 with him on the bench.
However, Atlanta has been more effective rebounding when Splitter has been paired with either Millsap or Horford, and the "big" lineup that head coach Mike Budenholzer has experimented with on a limited basis (35 minutes) has experienced success both on the glass and in terms of net rating. Perhaps the Hawks need to use those lineups more often.
Dennis Schroder is worse
Schroder expressed his desire to be a starter before the year even started, but he’s taken a step back instead of a step forward in his quest to prove he’s starter material.
As mentioned, his three-point shooting has taken a dip (35 percent to 28 percent) on higher volume, and he hasn’t improved much in any other area. His two-point percentage is about the same, he’s taking fewer shots in the paint and his free throw rate is well down.
Furthermore, Schroder and Teague have shown little evidence that they can play well together. The pairing had little success last regular season, was bad in the postseason and is poor again this year. There was hope those two could form a dynamic backcourt featuring multiple ball handlers who could get to the basket and distribute, but it just hasn’t worked so far.
Can the Hawks be elite again?
The Hawks’ three-point woes shouldn’t continue. They’re still creating plenty of good looks from deep, but not converting them at a high rate. Atlanta is making just over a third of its “wide open” and “open” threes, per SportVU data, which is significantly worse than last year.
But it may take a huge uptick in three-point shooting to cover the other issues on the roster. The rebounding won’t ever be a strength, and Schroder’s stagnation has hurt a bench that’s found no consistency. Quality depth just isn’t there right now, and it doesn’t help that one of the big moves of the offseason (trading a first-round pick for Tim Hardaway Jr.) has flopped.
The loss of Carroll has been felt on both ends of the floor, and his void combined with the other issues have the Hawks stuck in the morass of the Eastern Conference with no clear path to get out of it. It’ll take a major improvement in multiple areas to recapture the glory of last season.
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