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FanDuel advice: The game opens to everyone
In the middle of the season, it feels like the smart guys win all the time. At the end, though, the unknown makes everyone much more questionable.
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
I might be wrong about this -- it’s more of a hypothesis than a thing I’ve actually tracked -- but I’d wager that amateur success in FanDuel games is tracked something like a reverse bell curve graph. Starts high, slants low, middle of the season it’s bottomed out, then curves back up roughly symmetrically.
(This probably has a name, and could probably be described better. I’m not a graph-knower-the-name-of guy. You get what I’m saying.)
Early in the season, we don't know much. We thought Eddie Lacy and Andrew Luck and Dez Bryant would be monsters on draft day, only for David Johnson and Carson Palmer and Allen Robinson to be those guys by mid/late-season. Early in the season, even the experts were wrong about so many things, that relative peons could win money by guesswork.
That only lasts a few weeks, and tapers off quickly. By, I don’t know, Week 4, Week 5, the smart guys have gotten things worked out, and the more research-y, algorithm-y, make-you-hate-the-game-y guys are taking hold. The sharps.
Well, now the season is winding down. Jonathan Stewart didn't play last week, and won't this week, even if he might be able to were the Panthers desperate. Teams have churned through multiple backups, and the last few remaining quasi-healthy guys are wearing walking boots.
We thought Bryce Brown would be the Seahawks' No. 1 running back last week. Instead, it was Christine Michael. We thought Brandon Bolden would lead the Patriots in rushing yards. Turns out, it was Joey Iosefa. What we knew in the middle of the season is now more like what we think. And as things turn confusing again in the last few weeks of the season, that opens the more amateur (not an insult, just means the guys who don't do FanDuel 24/7) players up for grabbing big money again.
If you were burned in the middle of the season (as my brother was -- he did not enjoy a big part of this season) by FanDuel, Weeks 16 and 17 might be a good time to dive back in. You might not know more now, but at least the sharps know less.
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