NFL survivor pool strategy, Week 17: One last oasis
In the last week of the season, you don’t have as much freedom to be picky.
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Early in the season in Survivor pools, you can afford to be picky. You can pass up a team playing a winless garbage squad if you think the situation isn’t quite perfect. It happens.
In Week 17, you take what’s left.
If you’re still alive in your season-long Survivor pool, first of all, congratulations and well played. But it means you’ve picked 16 winners already this season. Unless you’re some sort of savant, those picks likely haven’t included (and likely won’t include this week) the likes of Cleveland, Tennessee, Dallas, San Francisco. For the most part, it’s included the big names, the big teams.
That means that it’s Week 17, and you’re down to the dregs. Below, John I run through some of the last appetizing plays for the final week of the season, and talk you off of a couple big names that you might somehow have left. And at the bottom, John Daigle and I rank our plays this week 1-32.
Good luck, and congrats on making it this far.
Sleepers
The Rams are the classic Week 17 team. They're not very good, and weren't expected to be, so they might not have been used in many Survivor pools, and the ones in which they were used likely ended in elimination for the player. St. Louis' wins this season have come over Seattle (twice) and Arizona, three games they definitely weren't chosen in, Cleveland and San Francisco in midseason, and Detroit and Tampa Bay off a five-game losing streak. Unless you used them in Week 7 or 8 against the Browns or 49ers, if you are still alive in Survivor, you still have the Rams available. This week, they face the 49ers again. And of course, a win puts St. Louis at 8-8, which is Jeff Fisher's oeuvre. (Sorry, had to pile on.)
Sixteen weeks out of 17, when I'm picking a winner, I'm looking for the better team. I'm not into soft factors, who wants it more, that sort of thing. In Week 17 ... well, I'm not relying on soft factors, but I'll listen, you know? The Eagles just lost their coach, have nothing to play for. Technically speaking, the Giants have nothing to play for either. But after a season where they should have run away with the NFC East, after a Week 16 where they were embarrassed, after a wholly warranted suspension that tarnished the image of their best player, the Giants look to me like a team that needs to close the season on at least a little bit of a high. I think they'll take this one.
Stay-aways
Washington
Literally, the only thing this team has to play for Sunday is, "Hey, let's finish over .500 instead of 8-8." They're locked into the NFC's No. 4 seed and will host a playoff game next week. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end Jordan Reed are both near-constant injury risks. Even facing Kellen Moore and a likely Dez Bryant-less Dallas Cowboys team, I just can't see Washington valuing 9-7 over the risks of going all out. Truth be told, I expect them to win Sunday. But I wouldn't risk a pool on it.
The popular opinion right now is that there are basically three teams realistically capable of winning the Super Bowl: Arizona, Carolina and New England. Yes, crazy things happen and anyone not eliminated yet technically has a shot, but those three are the general consensus. Well, if you widen that group to four, the next team up would be Seattle, which looked unstoppable before Week 16's inexplicable performance. Meanwhile, Arizona has something to play for Sunday only as long as Carolina's game is competitive. If the Panthers put away the Buccaneers by halftime, the Cardinals might just shut it down and rest their key players for the playoffs.
| Rank | Team | Opp. | DK | JD |
| 1 | Pittsburgh | @CLE | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | New England | @MIA | 6 | 1 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | BAL | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Kansas City | OAK | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Carolina | TB | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | NY Jets | @BUF | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Denver | SD | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Houston | JAC | 8 | 9 |
| 9 | Arizona | SEA | 15 | 3 |
| 10 | St Louis | @SF | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | NY Giants | PHI | 10 | 15 |
| 12 | Indianapolis | TEN | 13 | 13 |
| 13 | Washington | @DAL | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Minnesota | @GB | 17 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlanta | NO | 12 | 16 |
| 16 | Detroit | @CHI | 22 | 8 |
| 17 | Seattle | @ARI | 18 | 17 |
| 18 | Green Bay | MIN | 16 | 21 |
| 19 | Chicago | DET | 11 | 28 |
| 20 | New Orleans | @ATL | 21 | 19 |
| 21 | San Francisco | STL | 24 | 18 |
| 22 | Philadelphia | @NYG | 23 | 20 |
| 23 | Tennessee | @IND | 20 | 24 |
| 24 | Dallas | WAS | 19 | 29 |
| 25 | Jacksonville | @HOU | 25 | 23 |
| 26 | San Diego | @DEN | 26 | 26 |
| 27 | Buffalo | NYJ | 30 | 22 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay | @CAR | 28 | 25 |
| 29 | Baltimore | @CIN | 31 | 27 |
| 30 | Miami | NE | 27 | 32 |
| 31 | Oakland | @KC | 29 | 31 |
| 32 | Cleveland | PIT | 32 | 30 |
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