FanDuel advice: Arguing your side

A week ago, the Houston Texans played the New Orleans Saints, while the New England Patriots played the Denver Broncos. This led to much consternation and discussion among fantasy players, as Tom Brady, heretofore fantasy's best quarterback, was playing a strong Denver defense, while general afterthought Brian Hoyer was playing the Saints and their more-holes-than-the-last-Indiana-Jones­-movie defense.

Personally, I ranked Brady second last week — he's almost always first, so this was a downgrade, but not a remarkable one — and had Hoyer 13^th, which was several spots higher than he had been in any other week. I thought that was fair, as Brady is still, you know, Tom Brady, and Hoyer, while he had a dream matchup, isn't exactly a special player, and his only frontline weapon is DeAndre Hopkins.

I say this story not to brag about being right — I was, but I also had Aaron Rodgers as my No. 1 quarterback that week, and he didn't do anything, so, you know, people only get so much right — but to show that, a lot of the time, you can make an argument either way.

The pro-Brady argument heading into last week: The best quarterback in the game gets to throw to the best tight end in the game against a team that had lost two of its last three and had let both Andrew Luck and Alex Smith have big games against it in those losses.

Of course, there are anti- arguments as well. Brady, of course, was throwing to Denver, who had made guys like Rodgers and Joe Flacco look like amateurs early in the season, and he was doing it without Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis. Hoyer, meanwhile, is Brian Hoyer; he's been benched once this season and was just coming back from a game missed to injury. Stop DeAndre Hopkins, and he's low on guys to throw to.

Below, I make a lot of arguments for FanDuel options, both for and against specific players. I believe in all of them, because heck, I'm the one making the cases. But I could make the opposite argument in a lot of cases. We don't know for sure on any of this (you need look no further than Eddie Lacy Thursday night to see evidence of that), so we're guessing and hoping. But educated guesswork is still worth something, of course.

• Sometimes I only sort of mean these guys are great options for FanDuel games, and what I really want to say is they are better (or worse) than their reputations entering the week would have you believe. That's the case this week for me with Drew Brees ($7,700) who, truth be told, I probably won't be using in many FanDuel games. But for those seeking a contrarian option this week, most people will be avoiding Brees, who is coming off of a miserable Week 12 and faces a strong Carolina defense. But he's now at home (25 fantasy points a game at home; 12.4 on the road), and that is enough of a difference to make Brees more appealing than his reputation is entering the week.
• Similar to my Brees point, people are far too down on Philip Rivers ($7,600) entering a matchup against the Broncos. Early in the season, a team facing Denver meant that quarterback was just a do-not-touch, but in recent weeks, the unit has eased up. In the Broncos' last four games, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady have put up 20-plus and Alex Smith (not exactly known for his big games) had 15. The only quarterback with a bad game against the Broncos in the last month is Jay Cutler, who was without Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal. Rivers will be fine.
• Coming off his best game of the season, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,500) now has a "road" game against the Giants still in his home stadium, against a Giants' defense whose only two really good games have come against Sam Bradford and Matt Cassel (this is not a compliment). Any quarterback with a 1-2 punch of (in some order) Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker is going to warrant some look.

• I was wondering if it was ever going to happen for Russell Wilson ($7,800) this year, as he entered Week 11 averaging barely 15 fantasy points a game. After almost 60 points in his last two weeks, though, Wilson is suddenly seventh at the position. Of course, that was two home games against San Francisco and Pittsburgh; this week, it's a road game at Minnesota, a much better defense in a much worse locale. Steer clear.
• Aaaaaand we're here, discussing Matt Ryan ($7,400). It feels obligatory, as Ryan is still a big-name quarterback with as strong a running back/wide receiver tandem as any passer in the league. Despite that, he hasn't reached even 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 3, and is averaged less than 15 a game over the season. Ryan has the name and the weapons to be appealing. His production, though, is miles away from it.

• The Seahawks are the second-best team in the league in fantasy numbers against running backs. Of course, those are unadjusted numbers; according to Football Outsiders, the unit is middle of the pack. Jonathan Stewart, Andre Ellington and DeAngelo Williams have been fine against Seattle. And if the Vikings are going to make noise against Seattle Sunday, it will be with Adrian Peterson ($9,100). Even in a theoretically tough matchup, he should be fine.
• I hit on LeSean McCoy ($7,800) in Friday's roster piece, but the short version is that McCoy is healthy now and the Bills aren't even looking to Karlos Williams at this point. McCoy is a premium option.
• Okay, so I was back in on two running backs this week. The first was Eddie Lacy and ... the less said there, the better. But the other is C.J. Anderson ($6,800), who averaged 2.7 yards per carry before the Broncos' bye, and has averaged 6.3 since. I don't care that the team has intimated that Ronnie Hillman might continue to start; Anderson is the better back, and that will out.

• You never, ever root for injury. I'm a Colts fan, and if you said the Colts could beat the Patriots if Tom Brady got hurt, I'd take the loss. But as a person using players for fake-game purposes, if the Chiefs had scratched Charcandrick West ($6,700) for a second straight week this week, I'd have learned to deal with it. West, as the Chiefs' starter, was very good. Spencer Ware ($6,500), as the Chiefs' fill-in, was also very good. Either one of them individually is a FanDuel bargain. Together, I have no idea who to use. Good luck figuring it out.
• A week ago, when Thomas Rawls and Buck Allen got starting gigs, I was into it. This week, with David Johnson ($5,900) taking the reins in Arizona, the enthusiasm is dialed down. He got his most carries last week, and averaged 2.6 yards a carry. He was behind Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington for a reason, after all. Against an above-average St. Louis run defense, I'm just not feeling Johnson. (And yes, *phrasing*, but that was accidental.)

• I was the only one of our rankers to have Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,400) ranked first overall this week. When I saw that, it occurred to me that I was projecting a Darrelle Revis Week 13 absence that wasn't yet locked in. At this point, though, it's pretty clear the Jets will be Revis-less Sunday, meaning Beckham has the chance to perform all over the field. I bet, if my co-rankers had to do it again, they'd all agree with me.
• Despite being on the injury report basically all season, Alshon Jeffery ($7,700) has had 11 or more targets five times in six games played. When he's out there, Jay Cutler looks to him first, second and third. This week, Jeffery's not on the injury report at all. Eddie Royal's still out, though, and it's not like Martellus Bennett is at 100 percent. Jeffery should get all the looks.
• Everyone loves Cam Newton this week, because the Panthers are facing the Saints, and that's like the proverbial Christmas-morning kid. Well, in order for that to come to fruition, some of the Panthers' offensive weapons are going to have to be successful as well. Sure, you're starting with Greg Olsen, but a wide receiver needs to do something too, and Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,800) is the best bet of that group. Devin Funchess is $5,600 as well; either one makes some sense. I just prefer Ginn.

• You can only shut down Antonio Brown ($9,000) for so long; he's still a superstar. But the Seahawks showed the template last week, shadowing Brown with Richard Sherman the whole time. Vontae Davis and the Colts aren't likely to have the same level of success, if only because, like I said, you can only hold down a player like that for so long, but if Davis can keep Brown in check even a little, he won't be worth the $9,000 price tag.
• The Falcons gave up 21 fantasy points to the Giants' wide receivers in Week 2, and 32 to the Texans' guys in Week 4. Outside of that, the most they've allowed to a wide-receiver group (not just a guy, but a whole team's unit) is 17 to the Titans in Week 7. The Colts' guys totaled nine. The Saints' guys got nine. The Washington guys reached 13. Mike Evans ($7,900) was basically on his own against Atlanta last time Tampa Bay faced the Falcons, but he got only five points. The Falcons, led by Desmond Trufant, have a good pass defense. Evans doesn't excite me.

• We all punted on Julius Thomas ($5,800) after 18 fantasy points in his first five games (with 13 of those points coming in one game). He was never going to repeat his Denver performance, but he wasn't even relevant for most of that first five games. And then the last two weeks, he's had eight-plus targets both times and scored two touchdowns. Last week, it was nine catches on 10 targets for 116 yards. Now, with Allen Hurns out, he's almost guaranteed those targets again. Good Thomas time.
• I have to swing at the softballs. Rob Gronkowski is out. It's possible Scott Chandler ($5,300) doesn't do a lot in his stead, but for me, he is totally worth the gamble. I'm playing him all over the place.

• Ask a semi-casual football fan to name the top tight ends, and you'll get Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates pretty quickly. Not far behind those guys will be Jason Witten ($5,600), who has had a great career and probably has a ways to go yet, but this year, he's been pointless. Since 60 yards and two scores in Week 1, Witten has averaged 44.8 yards a game and hasn't scored even once. He's not a fantasy contributor, especially with Matt Cassel at quarterback. Fame isn't enough.

• The Browns needed Johnny Manziel to screw up so badly that they had to pull the plug to go to Austin Davis at quarterback. That's how much they didn't actually trust Davis. The Cincinnati defense ($5,100) is strong in a neutral matchup; against the Browns and Austin Davis, there aren't many more appealing units.
• Through Week 7, the Houston defense ($4,900) averaged 2.7 fantasy points a game, and the vast majority of that was because of a game against Jacksonville that accounted for 14 of the 19 points. But since then, the team has played four games, put up at least 10 fantasy points every time, and averaged 13. That despite games against Cincinnati, the Jets and New Orleans (and yes, the Titans). This defense is now doing what it once was supposed to do.

• When you're at a loss for a defense to use, the default is to find whoever is facing Jacksonville and go with them. After all, even with the improvements of the offense this year, the team is sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, and Blake Bortles still has a penchant for the turnover. But the team hasn't allowed double-digit fantasy points to a defense in any of its last three games, and the Tennessee defense ($4,400) hasn't reached double digits in a game since that Jameis Winston meltdown in Week 1. Better to avoid this one.