Bracketology: A long last look at the bubble picture

Avoiding Dayton: Davidson, LSU, Temple, Georgia

Given the Committee's love of the RPI, it's unlikely the Owls and Bulldogs, both in the top 40, will be left out. The Big East's Cincinnati were the last power conference top 40 team excluded, nearly a decade ago, in 2006. I still think the Bulldogs have issues, especially since they will enter without a single win over an NCAA team, but an RPI ranking of 39th might just be their golden ticket.

Texas (20-13; 8-10 Big 12; RPI rank: 43; SOS rank: 14; non-conf. SOS rank: 82)
The Longhorns played 15 games against the RPI top 50, and a stacked Big 12 played a significant role in that. But they only won three of those contests -- two at home against Baylor and West Virginia, plus they toppled Iowa in New York -- meaning they have 12 losses against the elite group. Texas' 13th loss is their worst, coming against Stanford, which happens to sit outside of the top 50 -- at 52nd. Steering clear of worse results might just keep Rick Barnes' team in the field. No other bubble team has a spotless record in games against teams from outside of the top 100.

BYU (23-9; 13-5 WCC; RPI rank: 42; SOS rank: 79; non-conf. SOS rank: 20)
Out of all bubble teams, the Cougars made the most persuasive closing argument, even if they didn't manage to defeat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final, a result that would have made things academic. Before that loss, BYU did defeat the Bulldogs in Spokane, which is the second-best win a bubble team has claimed all year, and cruised through their quarterfinal and semifinal in Las Vegas. That finish was important because Dave Rose's team has some definite profile blemishes. The win at Gonzaga is their only one against a top-50 team (against five losses) and the top-100 record of 4-6 isn't much better. The Cougars failed to sweep St. Mary's and were swept by 139th-ranked Pepperdine and lost to No. 158 San Diego, their lone loss to a team from outside of the top 150. In November and December, the Cougars best wins came over Stanford and Massachusetts, both at home, while a Maui Invitational trip resulted in no Division I wins. On night one, BYU fell to San Diego State by five, then fell to Purdue on night three, with a win over Division II Chaminade in between. In short, the Cougars' computer numbers and finish should be enough, but the deeper body of work is a bit thin.

Boise State (23-8; 14-4 Mtn. West; RPI rank: 44; SOS rank: 129; non-conf. SOS rank: 144)
Much like their former conference mates, the Broncos finished well, though their resurgence also failed to result in an automatic bid. A sweep of San Diego State and a split with Colorado State gives BSU three top-50 wins. Those victories pushed the Broncos to a shared Mountain West regular season title, boosted by the pair of wins over co-champ SDSU). That championship helps, but will not guarantee a place at the table. Those quality wins are paired with a trio of top-50 losses -- one in Fort Collins and early season setbacks at Wisconsin and North Carolina State. That six-point loss in Raleigh over Thanksgiving weekend is looking like a significant missed opportunity. The same applies to two losses to Mountain West Tournament champion Wyoming, though the Broncos did not host the Cowboys this season. Losses to Loyola of Chicago in Las Vegas, Utah State at home and Fresno State on the road certainly won't help either, but the latest of those -- the defeat to the Bulldogs -- happened a month ago.

Indiana (20-13; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI rank: 55; SOS rank: 28; non-conf. SOS rank: 92)
The Hoosiers' profile might put the concept of evaluating a team's "body of work" to the test. Even though Indiana lost to Big Sky champion Eastern Washington at home, the Hoosiers picked up some nice wins in the first half of the season, defeating SMU, Ohio State and Maryland in Bloomington and Butler in Indianapolis. Things have not gone quite so well since that win over the Terrapins on Jan. 22. Since then, the Hoosiers have gone 5-9 and winless against the seven likely NCAA teams they faced. The result is a profile that's similar to that of Texas (both teams have eight top-100 wins, while IU lost one fewer game against that group than the Longhorns did), but with two worse losses (No. 81 EWU and No. 121 Northwestern). That last fact, combined with late swoon, might lead to the Committee saying "no thanks" at the last minute.

Ole Miss (20-12; 11-7 SEC; RPI rank: 58; SOS rank: 55; non-conf. SOS rank: 110)
On Thursday night, the Rebels caught a case of #SECBasketballFever that might just be fatal to their NCAA hopes, as they were stunned by South Carolina minutes before advancing to a quarterfinal rematch against Georgia, a team that swept them during the regular season. That defeat may be an appropriate second bookend to the season for Ole Miss, who opened the season with an overtime loss to Charleston Southern, thanks to a tip-in at the buzzer. In between, came significant wins at Arkansas and Oregon, along with a neutral-site win over Cincinnati -- that's three wins against top-50 teams against five losses, which contribute to a respectable 9-9 mark against the top 100. Going 0-4 against fellow bubble teams Georgia and LSU may be fatal, however, especially with losses to Western Kentucky and TCU sitting on the Rebels' profile, too.

Miami (22-12; 10-8 ACC; RPI rank: 59; SOS rank: 72; non-conf. SOS rank: 176)
Yes, the Hurricanes won at Duke, which is the best result a bubble team claimed all season, but they went 1-6 in their other top-50 games. A 4-1 mark against teams ranked 51-100, with the loss coming at home to Green Bay (not helpful from an RPI perspective), means Miami has a respectable 6-8 mark against the top 100, which would normally be enough. But Jim Larranaga's team had to complicate things by falling to a whopping four teams from outside of the top 100, with an RPI-deflating 28-point holiday home loss to Eastern Kentucky doing the most damage. An 11-6 record away from home might help the Canes, but after the Duke win, the best result they were able to claim away from South Florida came at Syracuse, ranked 66th.

UCLA (20-13; 11-7 Pac-12; RPI rank: 48; SOS rank: 34; non-conf. SOS rank: 41)
If you thought the Bruins would be in the NCAA discussion after seeing Kentucky blow them out in Chicago on Dec. 20, you might consider moving to Vegas and setting up shop. Still, failing to put away Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals on Friday night likely did Steve Alford's squad in, as a third top-50 win would have been a nice selling point. As it stands, two wins in 10 tries against the top 50 won't cut it, especially with road losses to Colorado and Oregon State weighing UCLA's RPI down. Those defeats contribute to a 4-12 record away from Westwood, which is difficult to overlook.

Tulsa (22-9; 14-4 AAC; RPI rank: 46; SOS rank: 95; non-conf. SOS rank: 129)
On Dec. 10, the Golden Hurricane lost at home to a team you most likely have never heard of, Division II Southeastern Oklahoma State. While that result doesn't appear in the team's Division I record, you can imagine the Selection Committee isn't ignoring it either. As for the rest of Tulsa's profile, five top-100 wins in 13 tries looks halfway decent, but only two of those wins -- potentially tiebreaking wins over Temple -- came against the top 50. Auburn and Creighton, two teams nowhere near the field are their best non-league wins. Plus, they lost at crosstown rivals Oral Roberts (RPI rank: 162) early in the season. Combine those facts with a loss to Connecticut in the American semifinals on Saturday and Frank Haith's team can begin making plans to host NIT games.

Next Four Out: Illinois, Richmond, Old Dominion, Texas A&M