NCAA Bracket predictions 2015: You should pick chalk (except Duke)

We see you out there, people not picking Kentucky to win the national championship game. We see you. And to be perfectly honest, we get it. Like 70 percent of the people in your bracket pool are going to pick Kentucky. And you’ve got a lot better chance of being the best person among the 30 percent that didn’t pick Kentucky once Kentucky loses than you did of being the best person among the hordes who picked Kentucky to win.

But here’s the thing: Kentucky is the best team in the NCAA Tournament, and it isn’t particularly close. As I wrote yesterday, it’s certainly possible that Kentucky loses. They are human, after all.

But Kentucky is the best team. That is clear. And we’re going to pick the best teams deep into our NCAA Tournament bracket on the high chance that they win rather than gambling on the off chance they don’t and wasting our bracket. We stand by our chalk.

That said: we do have some early upsets since most pools value those. We’d never knock out a team we expect to go far in an early round because of that added value. We think the teams we expect to go far are most likely to go far, and we will pick them. But if we think a team won’t even make it to the Sweet 16, we don’t have a problem picking a higher number squad to knock them out.

We use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings as our bible, and they heavily influenced these selections.

Here are our picks (and in case you think my money isn’t where my mouth is, I am using this exact bracket in every pool I’m in as of right now.)

First round

We picked Buffalo and Valpo to pull first-round upsets, for two different reasons. Do I think both will happen? No. But I think one of the two will, and the bonus for upsets in many pools makes that worth it.

With Buffalo, I’m a sucker for first-time tourney teams, and we think their up-tempo attack is surprisingly a good fit against West Virginia’s press. Buffalo draws a lot of fouls and hits a lot of free throws, WVU commits THE MOST fouls.

With Valpo, we just think Maryland is a bit overseeded. They’re No. 33 on Kenpom, which should make them an No. 8 seed. We also think that their strong record was a bit too much based on a spectacular home court advantage -- they swept their Big Ten home slate.

Pomeroy’s rankings actually have Texas as the slight favorite over Butler, so that upset pick isn’t even really an upset. I know Texas played pretty poorly this year, but they have the talent and stats like them.

Round of 32

Kentucky, duh.

Buffalo vs. Valpo is a toss-up. But I like Buffalo’s chances to pull the first-round upset more, so I guess I like their chances to make the Sweet 16 better, too.

Notre Dame has the No. 1 two-point field goal percentage in the country. Texas has the No. 1 field goal percentage defense in the country. This game will be monstrously fun to watch. And we’re picking Texas because we feel lucky.

Wichita State being a No. 7 seed is an abomination of seeding. This team is only marginally worse than Kansas, but is slotted five spots lower. The Shockers will be as riled up as humanly possible for the in-state matchup, and we’re picking them.

Sweet 16

Kentucky, duh.

Wichita State to the Elite Eight feels unoriginal after all their recent success, but alas, it’s still cool to put Wichita State in the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight

Kentucky, duh.

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First round

The only upset we’re feeling here is Ole Miss over Xavier. Technically, when we picked this we’d assumed BYU would win that First Four matchup. I guess don’t listen to me!

Round of 32

Wisconsin, duh.

I like teams that press come tourney time, when opponents have little familiarity and little time to prepare. So Arkansas gets past UNC. Although I could see the Tar Heels’ herky-jerky offense operating pretty normally against it.

Baylor’s really good. And Ole Miss is there because I thought it was BYU.

Remember what we just said about the press come tourney time? Well, forget that: VCU isn’t as good as Arizona, so we’re picking Arizona.

Sweet 16

Wisconsin’s really good.

Arizona’s also really good.

Elite Eight

I just think Wisconsin’s offense is otherworldly. Arizona is great but I think Wisconsin is more likely to avoid bad play for 40 minutes on any given day.

SB Nation presents: What makes Wisconsin so good

First round

We explained our UC-Irvine over Louisville pick here. Mamadou N’diaye, y’all.

Round of 32

Villanova, duh.

We like Irvine, but not enough to pick them through two rounds.

Get to know Kris Dunn, Ladontae Henton and Providence. One of my favorite teams in the field.

I only picked Michigan State over Georgia because I’m not sure Georgia should even be in the tournament. I sure as hell am not picking a team that lost to Texas Southern to beat Virginia.

Sweet 16

We love Northern Iowa, but not enough to pick them over a Villanova team that was near-perfect offensively through Big East play and got more and more efficient at dismantling the fools that tried to challenge them over the course of the year. Seth Tuttle can’t change all that great scoring.

Providence has fun offensive talent, but they won’t be able to overcome Virginia’s 40 minutes of incredible gross defense.

Elite Eight

Vi______a vs. Vi_____a should be dope, two teams that loved crushing their opposition, one through offense, the other through defense. ‘Nova seems comparatively better at defense -- Daniel Ochefu is a force inside -- than Virginia is at offense -- they sometimes get lost for long stretches -- and we’re picking the Wildcats.

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First round

EWU plays crazy, wild, excellent offense -- Tyler Harvey is the nation’s leading scorer, and they’re playing Georgetown in Portland. Oregon. That’s 3,000 miles from DC, and just a few scant hundred from EWU. The Eagles proved they could beat tourney teams by knocking off Indiana, now they get to do it in a neutral -- or maybe semi-home -- environment.

We love Stephen F. Austin but Utah’s one of the top 10 teams in the field. SFA doesn’t have to deal with any Jakob Poeltls in Southland play.

Round of 32

Look, we’re boring.

Sweet 16

I can’t in good conscience pick Duke to the Elite Eight. They’re Duke. I can’t. Utah is literally one spot below Duke on Kenpom. This is a toss-up, and conscience wins. Plus, Poeltl is one of the few guys who could guard Jahlil Okafor straight-up, we think.

Gonzaga is incredible offensively and Kyle Wiltjer is a sight to behold. But asking Wiltjer to stick Georges Niang would leave Wiltjer in a pile of rust at the three-point arc. ISU has a million mismatches they could create. We’re picking the Clones.

Elite Eight

Delon Wright and these Utes should not be a No. 5 seed. They should be in the Final Four. We imagined ISU’s offense beating Gonzaga’s offense in the Sweet 16, here we’re picturing the Utes’ stellar D shutting down the Cyclones.

KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN. KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN. KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN. KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN.

We got Kentucky.

We’re happy to have put Utah this far and are ending the run here.

We meant that stuff about Kentucky. The Wildcats beat the Wildcats.

Thanks for reading! And, please, make fun of me when I’m wrong!

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