March Madness is exposing Jahlil Okafor’s flaws
Duke’s Jahlil Okafor played poorly against two teams with the size to match up with him. This makes one wonder: What if he’s been overrated all along?
Jahlil Okafor was considered the undisputed top prospect in the 2015 NBA Draft for most of the season, but March Madness has magnified the Duke freshman's flaws.
Okafor is one of the finest low-post talents to enter the draft since Al Jefferson came out of high school in 2004. With advanced post moves the majority of pros can only dream of using, clean footwork, exceptional mobility and soft hands, Okafor could someday develop into an All-Star scorer on the block.
But no player is perfect, and Okafor has displayed that throughout the season with his lack of explosiveness, poor rim protection and nonexistent shooting ability.
Those weaknesses were on full display last weekend. After Duke demolished its first two tournament opponents, Okafor struggled in the last two games, averaging just 7.5 points, eight rebounds and a nearly even assist-to-turnover ratio. Duke is in the Final Four despite his slump. Okafor had previously scored fewer than 10 points only once this season, and that came in a blowout win over Wake Forest when he logged only 19 minutes, which makes his low scoring output in the tourney even more worrisome.
The Duke big man was first given the business by Utah freshman center Jakob Poeltl, who held him to just six points and zero offensive rebounds in the Sweet 16. (This performance was outlined extensively by Draft Express.) Then, Gonzaga's big men followed that up in the Elite Eight, limiting the projected top pick to just nine points on 10 shots.
Okafor dealt with double teams nearly every time he touched the ball on the low post, so he’s still making a positive impact in that he’s drawing attention. But he has lacked intensity getting up the court and establishing positioning on the low block.
Sequences like that were common over the weekend. Gonzaga's huge center Przemek Karnowski used his 288-pound frame to push Okafor off his spot on the low post and beat him up the floor in transition. He'd then lay more body blows on the other end like a boxer does to wear down his opponent.
Okafor sometimes attempted to carve out his spot on the block, but he’d get pushed farther away than usual. This limited his ability to make a post move with a high chance of success, and he wasn’t exactly finding open shooters when double-teamed, with only one assist over the weekend. Okafor did have a handful of passes that eventually led to points for Duke, but that paled in comparison to his five total turnovers.
If a transition opportunity occurred, Okafor’s man outran him. The effort Okafor displayed on the national stage certainly didn’t support the positive reputation he earned as a winner in high school.
Okafor needs to start trying a little harder. Jogging up and down the floor like he's at the YMCA. If he won't go all out now, then when?
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 29, 2015 The scarier question: What if it’s not just a matter of effort? What if Okafor is actually struggling with conditioning late in Duke’s tournament run against NBA-caliber players like Poeltl, Domantas Sabonis and Karnowski? There were concerns about Okafor’s Jared Sullinger-like body shape heading into the season. Maybe those issues are finally rearing their ugly head late in the year.
But that's only one reason why Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns is sneaking ahead of Okafor on so many draft boards. Towns has better two-way potential and all-around versatility on the offensive end, since he can play outside of 10 feet and he has shown rim protection skills that far exceed anything Okafor has done this season.
If Okafor isn’t scoring on the low post, what does he offer besides that or rebounding? His free throw percentage is hovering around 50 percent and he has funky shot mechanics that have prevented him from even attempting jumpers outside of the paint.
It's certainly possible that Duke's situation makes Okafor look like a worse defender than he actually is -- and on the flip side, playing alongside Willie Cauley-Stein makes Towns look better -- but it's not like he's demonstrated an understanding of basic defensive fundamentals. His lack of activity at times doesn't help either.
Fitting Okafor on a roster that can maximize his strengths could also be a major issue in the modern NBA that places a large emphasis on both rim protection and floor-spacing big men, two areas where the Duke freshman struggles. Since Okafor can't stretch the floor offensively or protect the rim defensively, he'll need to be paired with a power forward who can do both. There are very few players like that in the league. We're talking about Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka and ... who else? Ask any NBA executive what they'd do to get their hands on one of these special players.
Okafor often gets compared to Al Jefferson because of his moves on the low post, but Big Al had a better shooting stroke straight out of high school. Okafor may be more like Greg Monroe or Zach Randolph. That isn't such a bad thing, but Randolph didn't star for a winning team until he was paired with Marc Gasol and Monroe has yet to fit on any of Detroit's numerous roster inclinations.
Okafor is undoubtedly one of the top offensive talents in the 2015 NBA Draft, but his questionable fit, possible conditioning issues and shaky performances against legitimate competition during March Madness is causing him to lose his hold on the top spot in the draft.
Still, the Duke Blue Devils have more games to plan. A turnaround performance in the Final Four against Michigan State on Saturday could do a lot to win back support.
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