Mayweather vs Pacquiao preview: What we’ve learned from Manny’s last five fights

Manny Pacquiao has gone just 3-2 in his last five fights, but has won three straight, and one of those losses was all but written off by critics and fans alike. Now 36, Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KO) is not the fighter he was in 2009, but to say that he’s past his prime is not to say that he’s not still a great fighter.

Timothy Bradley (June 9, 2012)

(Full Fight)

The first of Pacquiao’s two recent losses was probably the single most controversial fight in recent memory, as ringside observers and media, those watching on TV and fans around the world all agreed: Manny Pacquiao had beaten Timothy Bradley clearly over 12 rounds.

The judges, however, had a different view. Jerry Roth scored it 115-113 for Pacquiao. Duane Ford and C.J. Ross scored it 115-113 for Bradley, overruling Roth’s score, which was already too close in the minds of the public.

There was a growing sentiment in the weeks after the fight -- a minority, but vocal -- that the decision might not have been as bad as it was made out, however. Bradley did have some successes in the fight, and Pacquiao frankly left a lot of dead air, so to speak, by choosing to back off at various points, which may have given Bradley the opportunity to steal rounds on the judges’ scorecards. The fact that even the judge who scored it for Pacquiao had it a very close fight (7-5 in rounds) spoke to the idea that maybe the fight looked different at ringside than it had on TV, or even to those a bit further away in the audience. This never caught on as something that drowned out the noise that Pacquiao had won every round, but it was a discussion point.

Pacquiao’s loss to Bradley was all but ignored by the majority of people around the world, and a proposed rematch for late in the year was bypassed, as Pacquiao felt he’d already proven he had beaten Bradley, and promoters at Top Rank just didn’t see money in a rematch of a fight that had kicked up a lot of dust and brought a lot of attention, but for all the wrong reasons.

Juan Manuel Marquez (December 8, 2012)

(Full Fight)

Instead of facing Bradley a second time, Pacquiao faced Marquez for a fourth time. The great rivals had met in 2004, 2008 and 2011, each fight as close as could be. Their first fight was a draw, the second two won by Pacquiao on razor-thin margins. There was barely any separating the two over 36 rounds of the highest level of prizefighting.

The fourth fight had a different tone. Pacquiao was looking to shut the door on the Marquez file once and for all (once and four all, get it? classic), and he also had a little extra motivation to look devastating after the Bradley fight six months prior. Marquez, meanwhile, was still looking for that elusive win over Pacquiao. Every single fight with Manny seemed to fuel him that much more. Three times out, Marquez felt he’d deserved the decision, and he never got it. And their third fight in 2011 was the one where it seemed more of the public than ever felt he’d gotten the short end of the stick.

There was an aggressiveness from both fighters that was unusual. While they’d had their furious exchanges before, and Marquez had hit the canvas three times in 2004 and once in 2008, it looked for all the world like a sort of welterweight Rocky fight this time, with both guys waiting to load up for power shots and make the final statement on the rivalry.

Marquez struck the first major blow, dropping Pacquiao on a long bomb of a right hand in round three. It was the first time that Pacquiao had ever gone down against Marquez, and that counted plenty of wobbles, stumbles and clean shots eaten. But Manny was undeterred, and stayed on the hunt. He’d gotten caught, but he wasn’t changing his approach. Marquez went down in round five, and it seemed as though Pacquiao had taken the momentum of the fight. Leading 47-46 on each scorecard after five rounds, Pacquiao was winning the sixth, too.

Then, it happened. With the sixth round coming to a close, Pacquiao bounced, lunged in for a big shot, and -- BAM! -- Juan Manuel Marquez caught him wide open with a devastating right hand counter, straight on the chin. Pacquiao dropped face-down on the canvas. He was out. The fight was over.

It was the perfect storm of a punch. Marquez timed it right, had loaded up the punch, and connected flush. Pacquiao, meanwhile, had all but run into the shot. It was like a flat, 97-mph fastball that a great hitter sitting dead red knew was coming. The ball winds up in the upper deck. Pacquiao wound up knocked out.

Brandon Rios (November 23, 2013)

Manny took a long break from action after that loss, getting himself some rest away from the sport before returning 11 months later to face Brandon Rios, a rugged and teak tough Mexican-American fighter who was signed up as a “get-well” opponent, someone who would give him openings to look great offensively, and held only the slimmest chance of beating him.

Rios lost every round of the fight in Macau, or at best won two of the 12, while showing that he is, in fact, a stubborn, iron-chinned SOB. The talkative brawler stood his ground with Pacquiao, but that was about all he accomplished. Manny’s speed and skills were too much. The fight resembled a less dramatically violent version of Pacquiao’s 2010 win over Antonio Margarito, a sort of big brother figure to Rios whose own defensive limitations and lack of speed (hand and foot) got his orbital bone shattered by Pacquiao’s endless stinging blows. Pacquiao’s “rehab win” went as it should have.

Timothy Bradley (April 12, 2014)

A rematch with Bradley finally made sense 22 months after the first fight. Bradley, who had taken a browbeating from media and fans following the judges’ decision in 2012 (and his own reactions to the fight didn’t help), had a big 2013. First, he was involved in the Fight of the Year with Ruslan Provodnikov, and then he followed that up by beating Marquez in the fall.

With few options out there for Pacquiao, Bradley was the right choice. It gave Pacquiao a chance to face a high-level fighter again, and (hopefully) get the decision. This time, there was no doubt from anyone. Pacquiao thoroughly beat Bradley over 12 rounds, outclassing his opponent and winning on scores of 116-112, 116-112, and 118-110.

Chris Algieri (November 22, 2014)

With Bradley vanquished, Marquez unwilling to sign up for a fifth money fight, Floyd Mayweather doing his own thing, and the Top Rank cupboard a bit bare at 147 pounds, Pacquiao needed an opponent for his return to Macau.

Enter Chris Algieri, a likable Long Island fighter who had scored an upset in June over Ruslan Provodnikov, his first fight on HBO. Algieri’s appointment as Pacquiao’s opponent was a sort of “best of a bad situation” decision, and truthfully, Algieri might not have even been the best available, but the easiest fight to make without boxing politics interfering too much.

This is a fight that will probably forever be most famous for Algieri’s trainer Tim Lane being interviewed live by Max Kellerman during an entirely one-sided fight in Pacquiao’s favor, saying that Algieri would soon knock out Pacquiao, as soon as Lane “let his fighter out the cage.” Almost immediately, Pacquiao dropped Algieri, who was officially down six times in the fight. The only thing Algieri could really say after is that he did last 12 rounds with Pacquiao, but the fight was a grossly uncompetitive rout.

Pacquiao’s Five-Fight Picture

Pacquiao, now 36, is not the aggressive fighter he was in his earlier years. Every fight out, there is discussion of where his “killer instinct” has gone. He hasn’t scored a stoppage victory since 2009, when he battered Miguel Cotto. We’re talking over five years since Manny Pacquiao, supposedly a cyclone of power punching offense, has actually stopped an opponent.

Some of this is a result of fighting high-level opponents who can take a shot and when they do get hurt, know how to get themselves out of trouble. There’s no doubt about that. And in 2010, the referee could have stopped the assault of Margarito, but did not. Maybe the same could have been said last year against Algieri.

But there’s no doubt when watching Pacquiao that he doesn’t seem to have the finishing drive he used to have, and there is the thought that he’s even more cautious now after being knocked out by Marquez. Aggression leaves openings, and against great fighters, those openings can turn the lights out in short order. In that sense, some of Pacquiao’s seeming decline can be chalked up to maturity as a fighter. He’s long established as a superstar. The win is now much more important than taking an unnecessary risk to look more impressive.

Outlook For Mayweather

None of the four opponents discussed here really compare to Floyd Mayweather, either. As great as Juan Manuel Marquez is, he isn’t Floyd Mayweather, and styles, as the cliche goes, make fights. It’s a cliche for a reason. It’s true. What works against Marquez may not work against Floyd, and vice versa. Tim Bradley is a good fighter, but doesn’t bring to the table what Mayweather does. And Algieri and Rios are a full couple of leagues below Floyd.

Floyd doesn’t study film, but his team will look things over, at least at a glance. The Mayweather camp is notoriously confident in their fighter’s abilities, whether it’s been Floyd Sr. leading the team as head trainer (as he’s done since 2013), or Roger Mayweather, Floyd’s uncle, who coached him through most of what was likely his true prime.

What they might see is a Manny Pacquiao they can pick apart after some feeling out, which isn’t far off from what Mayweather always likes to do. The early rounds are where he and his corner see what the opponent has in mind. After that, they make adjustments, and nobody in boxing today makes adjustments as well as Floyd Mayweather. For a guy who is touted as a defensive specialist, he’s also an incredibly accurate puncher, and it’s his ability to read opponents and time the shots more than his hand speed that makes him so sharp. But he also comes with one or maybe two punches at a time. What has worked for Mayweather is sapping the will of opponents, making them passive even if the goal is to be aggressive.

Can Pacquiao be sapped? If there is real truth to Manny no longer having the killer instinct he did years ago, it’s possible. When Pacquiao fought Bradley the first time, he did get a little too passive. His next fight, he was a little too reckless. In the three fights since, he seems to have found a good balance. It’s not the peak of Pacquiao, but it’s still a great fighter with an offensive game that does pose some potential issues on paper.

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