Mayweather vs. Pacquiao preview: What we’ve learned from Floyd’s last five fights

He was once the “Pretty Boy,” but since 2007, he’s been “Money” Mayweather. Floyd Mayweather has been the top pound-for-pound fighter in boxing for many years now, and at 47-0, he’s yet to taste defeat as a professional.

But forget the 47, let’s just look at the last five. Things move fast in boxing, declines set in abruptly, and in an instant, greatness can simply disappear. For Mayweather, 38, it has yet to happen. But there are inklings.

Miguel Cotto (May 5, 2012)

Mayweather-Cotto was seen by some as a fight that “came too late,” which, of course, has been a common criticism of Saturday’s event, too. I don’t say that to criticize the Cotto fight or this fight. I say that because when you’re talking about truly elite professional boxers, you can still get great events and great fights even if the parties aren’t at their absolute peak.

Mayweather-Cotto was one of those fights. Cotto, a superstar Puerto Rican fighter and one of the best of this generation, had won three straight fights after a 2009 loss to Manny Pacquiao, and was coming off of a particularly personal victory against Antonio Margarito.

Cotto and trainer Pedro Diaz came up with a really strong game plan, keeping the pressure on Mayweather. But as another pressure opponent of Floyd’s later said, there are times when Mayweather thrives on opponents bringing the heat. As great as he can be when he shuts down his opposition, he also excels when thwarting well-prepared fighters. Cotto had success in this fight. Though he clearly lost, there were times he was able to make Mayweather uncomfortable, pushing him to the ropes and unloading, as we saw Oscar De La Hoya do in the first half of his fight with Floyd in 2007.

There’s also no doubt that Mayweather didn’t love his own performance in this bout. After this fight, he served a two-month jail sentence, and when he got back into training, he relieved his uncle Roger of his duties as head trainer, replacing him with his father, Floyd Mayweather Sr, a move that was made to give Mayweather a defensive edge that he may have felt he’d lost.

Robert Guerrero (May 4, 2013)

When Mayweather returned to the ring a year later, he did so against Robert Guerrero, a tough but limited fighter who had brawled his way into the matchup with wins over Selcuk Aydin and Andre Berto. Guerrero had come up from featherweight to welterweight over five years, and had proven stronger and more determined, it seemed, at each new weight class.

Mayweather looked more like the vintage version of himself against the plodding Guerrero, a flat-footed southpaw who gave him nothing to worry about after Floyd got his timing down. Even with a year of ring rust that included two months in jail and a new/old trainer, Mayweather dominated against Guerrero as was expected. He then signed for a fight just four months later, marking the first time he would fight twice in the same calendar year since 2007.

Secret Weapons: Manny Pacquiao’s uppercut

Canelo Alvarez (Sept. 14, 2013)

(Full Fight)

Since Canelo Alvarez, a young, sturdily built junior middleweight, was going to have such a large size advantage on Mayweather, an aging welterweight who’s not even big for that division, it was expected that Alvarez would use his strength and his size to try and wear Mayweather down. Maybe lean on him. Push him to the ropes. Target the body.

One judge managed to score this a 114-114 draw, which was as bad a scorecard as you’ll ever see. Said judge was shortly after nudged into retirement. When a judge’s card is so bad that even boxing commissions can’t excuse it, you’re getting in too deep.

Mayweather-Canelo was also arguably the biggest letdown for the sport in recent years. Though a lot of these “big fights” have turned out to not be competitive or exciting fights, this one was really big. This is the fight that broke the Mayweather-De La Hoya PPV revenue record, set a Nevada gate record, and came close in PPV buys (2.2 million, compared to 2.48 million for the De La Hoya fight). And it wound up not just a little boring, but a fight where the young fan favorite flat-out blew it. His team’s strategy didn’t even give him a chance.

Marcos Maidana (May 3, 2014 and Sept. 13, 2014)

(Full Fight I / Full Fight II)

Marcos Maidana is a little slow, a little rough around the edges, and one of the most determined fighters in the sport. The Argentine slugger was signed up to face Mayweather over Amir Khan, thanks to Maidana’s 2013 win over Adrien Broner, a young fighter who has tried to mimic the style and persona of Mayweather, whom he calls “big brother.” That win drew a lot of attention, and got Maidana the fight he could have previously only dreamed of landing.

There was no great reason to think Maidana would be a real challenge for Mayweather, but through sheer will and hunger, he gave Mayweather some trouble. In the first fight, he had Mayweather straight up flustered in the early rounds. His roughhouse tactics opened up a cut on Mayweather, who isn’t used to dealing with cuts, and his refusal to let Mayweather breathe and settle into the fight had Floyd a little mentally perturbed.

Mayweather made the necessary adjustments as he always has, though, and took over the fight down the stretch, as Maidana’s output predictably began to fade. The fight was good enough and close enough to demand a rematch -- plus there were really no other options -- and as he promised, Mayweather did make the second fight look a little easier, though you wouldn’t really call it easy. Maidana brought the same rugged approach as the first fight, but Mayweather had seen 12 rounds of it already, and letting Floyd Mayweather figure you out is never going to work for an opponent.

Mayweather’s Five-Fight Picture

This is the best boxer in the world still. He is also in decline. It’s hard to deny it. He gets hit more often. Not a lot, but more often. His legs aren’t what they used to be. The most simple fact is, he’s 38 years old. Of course he’s not as good now as he was 10 or even five years ago. He shouldn’t be.

But when we talk decline for Mayweather, we’re talking about a decline from being far and away the best in the world, a guy who at his best was nearly untouchable, a true marvel of defensive ability, speed, punching accuracy and otherworldly reflexes. He’s an extremely intelligent fighter, and that ring IQ has probably been the biggest factor in his staying this good for this long.

Outlook For Pacquiao

Even if Manny is the underdog, and even if he himself is past his prime (both fighters are still great, but not at their peaks), this may be the perfect time for Manny Pacquiao to face Floyd Mayweather. Was Pacquiao better in 2009-10? Sure. So was Floyd.

Mayweather has shown vulnerability in three of his last five fights. Pacquiao is not going to be able to bully Mayweather the way that Cotto and Maidana did, because he’s just not that type of fighter. Manny doesn’t truly rely on pressure like Cotto did, or on brute physicality and a willingness to take shots in order to deliver them like Maidana did. That’s not his game, and if Pacquiao were to attempt to fight that way, he’d probably get himself knocked out.

What Manny brings to the table here is speed, great footwork, and the sort of looks that Mayweather can’t have replicated in the gym. He’s faced some fast, slick southpaws in his day. DeMarcus Corley in 2004 and Zab Judah in 2006 both landed some significant shots on Mayweather. If you want a “blueprint” for how southpaws can get to Floyd, those are the fights, not the lead-footed Guerrero in 2013. And if those fighters could land good shots on Mayweather a decade ago, there’s no doubt that Manny Pacquiao can and will land some good shots in this fight.

But like his ability to deal with pressure, Mayweather’s resilience is underrated, in part because we rarely have to see it. When Shane Mosley stunned Mayweather in 2010, Floyd held on. When Mosley buckled his legs just moments later, Floyd held on. He survived, he shook the cobwebs and then he thoroughly outclassed Mosley the rest of the way. Floyd’s chin is strong and he knows how to deal with adversity on the rare occasion he faces it inside the ring.

All that is to say that Pacquiao may not have to be absolutely perfect to win this fight -- one punch can end any fight, though it’s exceptionally rare at this level -- but it would seem he’ll have to be pretty close. The Cotto fight and the Maidana fights were as competitive a bout as Mayweather’s had since 2007 against De La Hoya, and before that he didn’t really face any true competition except for a pair of 2002 fights with Jose Luis Castillo. But all of those guys lost, and the only one who had a serious argument for a win might have been Castillo the first time. Cotto and Maidana certainly didn’t have arguments for winning seven of 12 rounds.

We can’t harp on this one point enough, though: Styles. Make. Fights. It’s like any other sport. Some styles match up better than others, even if a fighter, player or team looks untouchable against other styles or approaches. Both of these guys have styles that give them advantages in this fight, and that could give the other guy huge problems. That’s the beauty of it. That’s why it’s a great fight -- not just the fans and the hoopla and the money and the event. Maybe it’s not going to be an electrifying, all-out war, but these two fighters have shown the strengths and vulnerabilities in past fights that appear to make this a great meshing of styles.

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