The Spurs show why the Clippers shouldn’t break up their team

You need luck to win an NBA championship. Luck alone can’t do it, but if you’re one of the top five teams in the league and there isn’t much separating you from the other four squads considered contenders and near-contenders, luck matters. Clearly superior teams almost always win their playoff series, but when squads are evenly matched, a play here or a play there can change the course of fate. Sometimes you catch the breaks, sometimes you don’t.

We are a deterministic people, and we like to attribute the results of random events to character attributes. When DeAndre Jordan lightly taps a ball in the cylinder that may very well have gone in had he been absent, we like to suggest its indicative of the center’s basketball IQ (or lack thereof). When the Clippers lose a heartbreaking nailbiter, we prefer to blame their comparative playoff inexperience or lack of championship moxie instead of chalking it up to a random event that broke the wrong way. When the Spurs win a game like this -- as they always seem to do -- we prefer chalk it up to intangible Spursy greatness instead of a lucky break. As if the mere presence and aura of the Spurs cause Jordan to brush the ball.

And the reason why the Spurs so frequently come out ahead is simple, really. It’s because the Spurs are always there.

The Spurs seem to have caught so many breaks because they are almost always one of the top five teams in the NBA, and have been for almost two decades. That means that San Antonio almost always beats lesser teams in the playoffs and is always locked in tough series with the other great teams of a given season. The Spurs win some, and lose some.

San Antonio’s amazing triumph isn’t winning five championships (and counting) in Tim Duncan’s 19 seasons, it’s being in contention for a championship every year for 19 seasons. Even if you catch the right breaks and match-ups only one out of every five seasons in that kind of run, you end up with four titles. Luckier teams might get a few more. Less fortunate franchises might only get a couple. The Spurs are playing for No. 6 in Year 19 of the Duncan era.

If they do win No. 6 six weeks from now, that one-title-every-three-years rate will be impressive. Yet the sheer number of opportunities to win a title is the more awe-striking figure. Consider that the Spurs have hit 55 wins (or, in lockout seasons, the winning percentage equivalent) in 17 of the 19 seasons of the Duncan era. On average, less than five teams per season hit that mark. If you have 17 seasons as a top-five team in less than two decades, of course you’re going to win titles.

The interesting thing about this series and the Clippers’ future is that the Clippers are also right there. They are good enough to win a championship. This was L.A.‘s third straight season with at least 55 wins. They are at the party, waiting for Lady Luck to look their way.

The lesson of the Spurs is that you need to preserve your presence at that party as long as possible. The Spurs were able to draft the best power forward ever. The Clippers nabbed a pretty good one, too, and followed it up by trading for one of the best point guards of his generation.

There have been suggestions that if L.A. falls in the first round, the team ought to let the high-priced Jordan leave and attempt to use the resources that would otherwise be spent on the center to provide more defense and depth. Whether Jordan is worth a max contract is highly debatable, and the Clippers’ front office ought to have that debate.

Regardless of the outcome of this series, the Clippers should follow the Spurs’ lead and preserve this run as long as possible.

★★★

SB Nation presents: As the playoffs intensify, so do the fights