There are reasons the Warriors are the heavy favorites to beat LeBron James’ Cavaliers
LeBron may be an all-time great, but there are a lot of reasons why most analysts and Las Vegas are siding with Steph Curry and the Warriors.
The NBA Finals features two teams: One has LeBron James, a global superstar already considered one of the best basketball players of all time and making his fifth consecutive Finals appearance. The other is an upstart squad led by a rookie coach in the Finals for the first time since 1975.
To some casual observers, the pick is easy. LeBron is great and this other team is unproven, so the Cleveland Cavaliers should win, right? But the consensus among experts and Las Vegas is quite the opposite. Stephen Curry and the Warriors are the heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals.
The Golden State Warriors aren’t just a very good team: With 67 wins and an average point differential of 10.2 points per game -- eighth-most in NBA history -- the Warriors are statistically one of the best teams of all time. Over the course of the regular season, they were better than LeBron’s Cavaliers in pretty much every facet of the game.
1. The Warriors have a better offense than the Cavaliers
This one passes the naked eye test. When people think about Golden State, they think about their high-octane, run-and-gun attack.
Stephen Curry is an otherworldly offensive talent. He can pull up from anywhere and hit and is also a wizard passing and dribbling the ball. Klay Thompson is a knockdown shooter too, and the constant need to keep bodies on them on the perimeter makes scoring inside easy. Golden State scores 110 points per game, most in the league. Cleveland scored just 103.1 points per game. It seems obvious this point goes to Golden State.
In truth, it’s a bit closer than you might think. It’s merely Golden State’s intensely fast pace-of-play, the fastest in the league, as opposed to Cleveland’s relatively deliberate pace, 25th in the league, that leads to a big points-per-game disparity. When factoring for pace, Golden State averaged 109.7 points per 100 possessions -- second in the league -- to Cleveland’s 107.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season -- fourth in the league.
LeBron and Kyrie Irving are pretty hard to stop, and with J.R. Smith gunning and Tristan Thompson menacing the offensive glass, Cleveland does have a very good offense. It is, however, a tad worse than Golden State's obviously brilliant scoring ability.
The Cavaliers' offense has also taken a hit with Kevin Love's injury. They miss his shooting, though Thompson's rebounding has ensured the drop-off isn't as steep as it could have been.
2. The Warriors also have a better defense than the Cavs
Often ignored due to the Warriors’ obscene points-per-game totals is Golden State’s spectacular defense: The team only gave up just 98.2 points per 100 possessions last year, the best in the league. Don’t let their pretty offensive game fool you. The Warriors are capable of team-wide menacing, shutdown defense, from the perimeter to the post.
Cleveland's defense was pretty mediocre, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possession, 20th in the league. It's true that using the entire season is a bit unfair, because Cleveland conquered some pretty serious defensive issues over the course of the season, as they acquired a true rim protector in Timofey Mozgov and a talented wing defender in Iman Shumpert. But even so, they didn't even have a single month when their defensive rating was as good as Golden State's average for the entire year.
Both teams are really good on offense. Only one of them is really good on defense.
3. The Warriors are deeper than the Cavs
This is a rather polite way of putting this.
The Warriors have a nine-man rotation whose last player is Festus Ezeli, a reasonably good defensive big man. The Cavaliers play an eight-man rotation whose eighth man is James Jones, a shooter who isn't particularly great at shooting.
The Warriors have an effective second unit led by a fun backcourt of Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa, two guards with intriguing skillsets, that come in to get Curry and Thompson some rest. The Cavaliers don't really have a tried and true method for getting LeBron James rest, though they have somehow played well in the postseason with James sitting.
The Warriors have relegated David Lee and Marreese Speights, somewhat NBA useful players, out of their rotation. The Cavaliers tried to start Mike Miller, who is a very much not useful NBA player, in an actual game during the NBA playoffs. (It backfired tremendously.)
The Warriors have a pair of stars in Curry and Thompson and have surrounded them with a team that compliments them very well and allows them to flourish. The Cavaliers have LeBron and are still actively trying to piece together the rest.
Of course, some of this is because...
4. The Cavaliers are injured
The Warriors were better than the Cavs all season long, and we are not even dealing with the best version of the Cavaliers.
Kevin Love, of course, is injured, and out for the year. Kyrie Irving has been hobbled in the playoffs, and hasn’t been playing as well as Kyrie Irving can play. When the Cavaliers entered the season as a plausible NBA champion, the main reason was the pairing of LeBron with Love and Irving, perhaps a better Big Three than the Big Three he won two titles with in Miami. It’s now more like a Big One And Three-Fourths.
The injuries haven’t hampered the Cavaliers yet in the playoffs, but those games haven’t been against the NBA’s best team.
SB Nation presents: LeBron carried a team to the NBA Finals. Again.
5. Stephen Curry is just as good as LeBron James
The main reason the Cavaliers might win the NBA Finals is because they have LeBron James, but the best player on the Warriors isn’t that much worse than he is. In fact, he might be playing better.
You’d be hard-pressed to argue that there’s a better all-around basketball player on the planet than LeBron James. He’s incredibly strong, super fast, jumps high, shoots well, has great vision and passing ability, can score in the post, will block shots and is capable of guarding players on the perimeter.
Curry can’t do some of those things, but the things he does are unreal. He’s a historically great shooter, has brilliant handles and makes passes other players wouldn’t think of even trying. Curry recorded a higher PER than LeBron in the regular season -- 28.0 to 25.9 -- and a higher PER than LeBron in the postseason -- 26.4 to 24.8.
The Warriors are clearly deeper than the Cavaliers, and the Cavaliers’ biggest advantage -- having the world’s best player -- isn’t even that big an advantage.
★★★
It’s certainly possible that LeBron and the Cavaliers win, because LeBron and the Cavaliers are very good. But it’s pretty likely that they lose, and not just because LeBron is “not clutch” or because of your dad’s arguments about Michael Jordan. It’s because the Warriors are really, really great.
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