Most things end terribly and other life lessons of the Tour de France

The Tour de France is life, here’s why:

1) It’s long. So long that riders go through all of the same phases that human beings go through during a lifespan: Times of joy, times of despair, times when we question why we ever set out on the path we’re on, and times just after defeat when you look up and you wonder how you’re ever going to run out the stage, the days, the months, the years.

2) It requires a different type of energy -- soulful energy, not the constant adrenaline needed for a one-off team-v-team or person-v-person match, but the fortitude that we all muster daily with varying degrees of success.

3) It isn’t fair. And note, so we can stop being morose for a moment, that not being “fair” means that things can break fortunately from time to time. But there’s no question that a sport that invites such careful planning -- the path is laid out months ahead of time, after all -- hinges on so many stupid things: Gusts of wind, bumps in the road, the hope that one of a million people you pass by along the road isn’t a murderous psychopath. The Tour de France appears to be straightforward at the outset, and quickly becomes something else. Such is life.

A competitive 2015 Tour has been filled with perhaps more harsh reminders of reality than usual, and that’s with 10 stages still to go. The lessons it has imparted are timeless, true and occasionally brutal.

When Vincenzo Nibali fell off the back on the Mur de Bretagne on Stage 8, it foretold his end. On Stage 10, the first mountain stage of the Tour, he broke with more than 10 kilometers remaining. Sensing that he was wobbling, Team Sky and Chris Froome put the hammer down, increasing the pace up La Pierre-St. Martin to leave the 2014 Tour champion in a metaphorical heap. Afterwards, Nibali and Team Astana admitted that their Tour was effectively finished.

“It was a difficult day. I couldn’t keep the pace. I could not breathe properly. I couldn’t find the right pedalling pace. It was as if I didn’t have any strength left,” Nibali said. “It’s going to be difficult now. Physically I feel pretty well. But I can’t give anymore. I’m not the same Vincenzo Nibali as last year.”

Nibali is probably correct when he says he’s “not the same,” but the Italian champion also has a few detractors who would say this is exactly who he is. When he won last year, Froome and Alberto Contador had been forced to abandon early on, and there was no Nairo Quintana. Many of the riders that finished directly behind Nibali in the standings are much farther down a year later -- Jean-Christophe Peraud from second to 25th, Thibaut Pinot from third to 35th, Romain Bardet from sixth to 20th.

Nibali’s win by 7:37 in 2014 has been made vulnerable to retconning. To do so would be wrong and unfair, it should be clear that he isn’t the man he was a year ago and he may be able to blame a lot of his struggles on the crosswinds of Stage 2 and a hard fall in Le Havre. But the only thing we know for sure is his place in this year’s Tour, and it says that the 2014 champion is the 11th-best rider and dropping.

Tony Martin, one of the best time trialists of all time, had ridden the Tour de France six times without ever once wearing the yellow jersey. After three stages, it appeared that this inexplicable streak would extend to seven. He was nudged out by Rohan Dennis on Stage 1, then robbed by a time bonus on Stage 2 when Fabian Cancellara took third overall and wound up three seconds ahead of Martin. He was No. 2 after a third straight stage when Froome attacked the Mur de Huy and took the Maillot Jaune by one piddling second.

Then came cycling bliss. Near the end of Stage 4, after the cobbles, Martin and his Etixx-Quick Step team were well-positioned in the peloton. Martin knew he couldn’t sit still if he wanted a stage win -- he’d have been swallowed up by the sprinters if he stayed with the pack -- so he did what he does best and went solo with 3.5 kilometers remaining.

Martin outraced a full-tilt peleton to cross the line first, and he did it on someone else’s bike. He didn’t want to waste any time after getting a late flat tire, so he took teammate Matteo Trentin’s ride to finish the stage. It was awe-inspiring, and god did his team celebrate.

Two days later, Martin nipped the back wheel of Bryan Coquard and his Tour was over. Martin suffered a badly broken collarbone on what ought to have been an innocuous transition stage. He had no chance to fight for his yellow jersey, no chance to go down on his own terms. We were robbed, Martin most importantly, of a satisfying conclusion to what had been the best story of the Tour.

A quick interlude on the simple things: Tejay Van Garderen is having a pretty good Tour. Not “Chris Froome” good, and in the end probably not “Nairo Quintana” good either, but better than the rest of the lot. If he keeps riding as strongly as he has, he’ll stand on the final podium in Paris. Van Garderen’s temerity has been questioned in the past, but he entered this year’s Tour talking about his chances as confidently as he ever has. At 26 years old, he has years left to potentially secure a win.

At some point his fans may demand exceptionalism. Right now, Van Garderen’s future is warm and bright. Feels good.

Chris Froome is going to win the Tour de France. At least, it seems that way after his attack up La Pierre-St. Martin on Stage 10. When Nairo Quintana -- the smallest, pluckiest, mountain goat-iest climber in the field -- can’t even hang, who can? There are six more mountain stages left in the Tour, and Froome is the only rider who hasn’t cracked after one.

How do you deal with this as another rider? What do you do if you’re Vincenzo Nibali, whose best case scenario is a plop? What if you’re Quintana, the supposed trump card to Froome in the mountains, and your best no longer seems good enough? What are we supposed to do as fans, now that what was supposed to be the most competitive Tour in many years is in danger of becoming a runaway?

Froome has become the Tour’s supervillain, an overpowered force who has swooped in to usher forth his rivals’ darkest hours. But unlike a Marvel movie, there’s no guarantee he’ll be defeated. There is hope of course -- sharp descents await to test Froome’s occasionally shaky technical skills -- but if we’ve learned anything from this year’s Tour it’s that nothing is ever tidy.

In the real world, the supervillains can win.