The Orlando Magic have one of the most exciting young rosters in the league, but at times it's easier to focus on what they don't have: a superstar. Even with talented former first-round picks at every position, Orlando's roster is a series of gambles that will define the next several years.
None of those gambles is more important than shooting guard Victor Oladipo. The former No. 2 overall pick has made steady progress early in his career and stands as the Magic's best shot at having a legitimate All-Star in the next couple years.
Already a strong perimeter defender thanks to his elite athleticism, prototypical size (6'4, 210 pounds) and motor, Oladipo's upside has always been tied to his offensive skills. Can he shoot? Can he run the pick-and-roll? Those are the doubts that Oladipo has needed to overcome. Entering Year 3 of his career, his efforts have been a work-in-progress.
There's reason to be excited, however, and not just because Oladipo's rise could coincide with the Magic becoming relevant again. During a Team USA scrimmage last week, the 23-year-old broke out with 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists in just 23 minutes of playing time. Even if nobody played any defense, his confidence was apparent:
Here’s how Victor Oladipo can become the star the Magic need
Orlando might have a franchise cornerstone in Oladipo, but he needs to keep improving some key aspects of his game to become that kind of player.
With new coach Scott Skiles taking over next season, Oladipo should get a bigger opportunity than ever. Can Oladipo overcome his ongoing flaws in order to become the star guard that Orlando needs to take its rebuilding effort to the next level? Here's what needs to happen.
Keep improving as a shooter
Oladipo entered the league with one big flaw: his questionable shooting ability. It’s nearly impossible to be a high-level guard in the modern NBA without the ability to hit threes and space the floor. Defenders will back off or just ignore non-shooting wings to apply pressure elsewhere. Oladipo improved from three-point range in his final college season, but there were questions whether that would hold up over a larger sample.
Oladipo has improved as a shooter since being drafted, but considering where he started, he needs to get better.
There are some positive trends to note. As a rookie, Oladipo shot 33 percent from beyond the arc on 2.8 attempts per game. Last season, he hit 34 percent of his attempts while taking 3.4 per game. That’s a modest improvement, but he also gained confidence as the season wore on. From March 1 through the end of the season, Oladipo shot 36 percent on 4.4 attempts per game.
The bad news is that Oladipo still struggles with catch-and-shoot opportunities, a major problem given the long-term partnership between him and poor-shooting point guard Elfrid Payton. While he’s significantly improved his three-point shooting when creating the chances himself or pulling up, Oladipo remains below-average on catch-and-shoot attempts. That’s something he’ll need to overcome as a wing given the importance of spacing the floor with spot-up shooters. He remains wildly inconsistent on these kind of shots (via NBA.com):
November: 35.3 percent
December: 48.1 percent
January: 32.4 percent
February: 20.7 percent
March: 32.4 percent
April: 29.0 percent
Oladipo is already a solid three-point shooter on pull-ups, but most quality three-point attempts come via catch-and-shoot opportunities as the defense breaks down. If Oladipo can become steadier on those plays, he should be able to put up average to above-average shooting numbers going forward. Given how well he does other things, that could be enough to push him into the next echelon.
He’ll need to make one other key improvement, though.
Make the easy play on pick-and-rolls
Part of why Oladipo is so important for Orlando is that he’s capable of being an excellent pick-and-roll guard. His athleticism and driving ability, coupled with the increasing threat of his shooting ability, make him a terror to guard when he’s on. The key, as he’s learned over his first two seasons, is to keep it simple and not try to force things.
“A lot of my turnovers -- my charges and stuff -- came from just trying too hard,” Oladipo told Grantland’s Zach Lowe in April. “I have to make the simple plays.”
That’s already started for Oladipo, who turned the ball over on 18.2 percent of all pick-and-roll plays he finished last year, per NBA.com. While that’s not a great figure, it’s not a terrible one either. It’s also a significant improvement from his rookie year. Overall, his turnover rate dropped from 19.2 percent to 14.3 percent despite increased usage.
This is something that Oladipo needs to continue to improve. Even late last season, he was making a simple play more complex than it needed to be:
Instead of being patient, Oladipo tried to force a play into the middle of an alert Bulls' defense. When Oladipo talks about "just trying too hard" and the need to "make the simple plays," it's because he needs to weed out plays like the one above. With his strength, athleticism and skills, Oladipo just needs to make things easier for himself.
If he can do that, his pick-and-roll game will improve tremendously.
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Oladipo's ability to improve these aspects of his game will define the Magic's upside. Orlando has many other exciting young players that can fill roles -- Elfrid Payton, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and more -- but Oladipo is the team's best shot at a legitimate two-way star in the next couple years. Otherwise, they must bank on 2015 first-round pick Mario Hezonja being as good as he thinks he is, and the 20-year-old Croatian's development will take time.
For next season and beyond, the Magic could really use an Oladipo that polishes his shooting and pick-and-roll game enough to become a marquee scorer. Otherwise, Orlando probably just has a very good defensive-minded guard, which is useful, but not quite the franchise cornerstone this team needs.
By the end of next season, we should have a much better idea of just what the Magic have in Oladipo.
