FanDuel strategy, Week 1: Undervalued, Overvalued players

The NFL has returned, and when you’re not enjoying another round of questionable ethics from the Patriots, you’re stressing hardcore about the intricate algorithm you made in Google Docs to finally crack the code and skyrocket to daily fantasy glory. While we can’t promise automated greatness, we can at the very least highlight for you a couple value plays across key positions, focusing on both overpriced and cheap options for the upcoming Sunday slate.

A key disclaimer before continuing; FanDuel valuations vary from season-long fantasy rankings. In daily fantasy, we look less for who we believe will top the week in scoring, and more for cheap avenues toward points. Travis Kelce may be the third ranked tight end for standard leagues, but in daily fantasy, you’re also forced to evaluate if his potential stat line is worth the $6,000 investment. Utilizing cheaper players (with the upside for decent to good performances) opens room to stack up on elite talent at other positions, while overpaying for mediocre results hamstrings your chances for solid returns. Our strategy here is to minimize expenditures wherever possible and maximize cap flexibility.

Undervalued: Tyrod Taylor vs Colts ($5000)
Overvalued: Peyton Manning vs BAL ($9100)

We open with a symbolic example of the difference between season-long and daily fantasy. No sane person in their draft leagues would advocate Taylor, an unproven and risky QB starting his first NFL game, over Peyton, proud Papa Johns sponsor and world beater. Yet, for our purposes, Taylor is an intriguing play in Week 1 at his minimum salary.

The top ten QBs this week, per salary, come in at an average price of $8,711. Taylor, set at $5000 due to the salaries locking in before his announcement as starter, offers an extra $3700 to spread across the remainder of your team. He faces an average-at-best Colts defense at home, is a threat with his arm and legs, and comes off a stellar preseason helming Rex Ryan’s conservative, run-heavy Bills offense. While we shouldn’t expect top QB performance, a top-ten finish at his price point would represent a huge return on a minimal investment.

Conversely, Peyton’s $9100 price tag (third highest among quarterbacks this week) requires a ton of faith in his production, which I’m not willing to commit to in the first week of the season. He faces a Ravens team that hopes to rebound from last year’s middle of the pack pass defense—No. 15 in DVOA rankings—with the return of starting corners Ladarius Webb and Jimmy Smith. Additionally, the inklings from camp and from coach Gary Kubiak indicate a desire to focus more on the run game this year, balancing the attack more than the pass-heavy Broncos offense from years past. While Peyton certainly has the capacity for a great game, I’ll avoid him at his price point and look for cheaper options like Taylor.

Undervalued: Eddie Lacy at Chicago ($8500)
Overvalued: Gio Bernard at Oakland ($7200)

Eddie Lacy, even at his higher price, still represents a solid value play for this week’s slate of games. Among the RB1 candidates for your teams, Lacy combines a favorable matchup against Chicago with a lower cap hold than six other RBs (excluding Arian Foster, who is listed to use but out injured for the beginning of the season). In his two games against Chicago last year, Lacy averaged 15.85 points, with his initial game appearing during his early season slump. He has scored against them every single time he’s faced them, and this season looks to be no different: the Bears struggled to contain the run last year, giving up an average of 19.49 fantasy points per NFL.com’s rankings. At his current salary ranking, choosing Lacy is a bet that he’ll provide at least the seventh best running back total this week: I’m willing to pay his cap hold for that bet.

On the other side, Gio Bernard is overpriced for a role that, as the season progressed last year, turned more and more into a handcuff. Bernard, a capable change of pace back who has seen his usage dip with the emergence of Jeremy Hill, is currently the No. 20 most expensive running back for this week. Cross reference that with his No. 30 position in our PPR rankings—which would seemingly favor a pass catching back like Gio—and you’ll see an overpriced option. I would much rather Jonathan Stewart at $7000, Chris Ivory at $6,400, or even Danny Woodhead at $6,000.

Undervalued: Davante Adams at Chicago ($5500)
Overvalued: Alshon Jeffrey vs GB ($8400)

Adams falls in the same exploitable strategy as Tyrod Taylor, a seemingly marginalized player in the offseason suddenly thrust into a prominent role. As the WR2 on the explosive Packers offense, Adams inherits an exciting position with the best quarterback in the NFL at the helm. In two games against the Bears last year, Jordy Nelson averaged 29 points, scoring two touchdowns per game. While Adams doesn’t approach Jordy’s talent or production, if he can get even half of that at his price point, you’ve found a great deal. His value is all the more apparent when you consider the neighboring wideouts at that price point, like Malcom Floyd, Michael Crabtree, and Percy Harvin (all more expensive).

On the other side, you have Alshon Jeffrey, an undeniable talent who provides too much risk to commit to his $8,400 salary cap. Jeffrey did not practice all preseason due to a calf injury, and, while he’s been able to practice in a limited basis this week, the murkiness surrounding his health gives me too much concern. Similarly priced options like Calvin Johnson or AJ Green should be safer bets this week.

Undervalued: Ben Watson at ARI ($4600)
Overvalued: Ladarius Green vs Det ($5700)

And, lastly, we focus on tight ends, the fantasy equivalent of Fury Road; a barren wasteland punctuated by a few powerhouses and a ton of destruction. If you don’t commit the Gronk tax, or invest in Jimmy Graham, you’re stuck with questionable plays at high prices. For our purposes, we have two opposing versions of a fantasy coin flip, praying for three catches for thirty yards and a touchdown.

If you don’t pay for one of the top option, you’re stuck praying for a near-miracle. At one end, you have Ben Watson, first string tight end for the Saints and intriguing dart throw at near minimum pricing. While not nearly the threat that Jimmy Graham was for Drew Brees, Watson is a solid veteran option with a decent shot at red zone targets. On the other, you have the eternally promising but forever disappointing Ladarius Green. Overdrafted last year after rumors of an Antonio Gates decline, Green is the perpetually hyped replacement option that fails to produce. Taking a swing on Watson instead of Green saves you $1100 and offers roughly the same chance at touchdown production.