Preseason Bracketology: Duke starts the season at the top

For the first time since November 2012, a team other than Kentucky enters the new campaign as the No. 1 overall seed. In fact, the Wildcats aren’t even a one seed in this entirely too early projection, edged for the final spot on the top line by the defending national champions, the Villanova Wildcats. The Kansas Jayhawks, perennial Big 12 champs, and the Pac-12’s Oregon Ducks sit between the 2015 and 2016 Final Four winners on this bracket’s top line.

Duke, preseason No. 1 in both major polls, also gets the nod here thanks to the addition of a highly touted recruiting class, which will add Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Marques Bolden, and Javin DeLaurier to a roster that already boasted the returning Grayson Allen, Chase Jeter, Matt Jones, and Amile Jefferson, among others. Of course, the Blue Devils’ roster isn’t fully intact on Opening Night, thanks to injuries, but if this team ever gets to a respectable level of health, watch out. If not, well, the door opens for the field.

My November 2015 bracket correctly predicted 41 of the 68 teams in March 2016’s actual field of 68. That’s a drop of three teams from the previous season, but the total is typical for this exercise. Naturally, the biggest challenge remains nominating representatives for the probable single-bid conferences. Only five teams who filled one of those 21 spots in last fall’s bracket made it to March Madness.

Seeding is even more unpredictable this early on. I only correctly picked five teams’ eventual March seeds last November, with a further nine squads seeded within a single line of their result.

Also considered (in alphabetical order): Akron, Alabama, Arizona State, College of Charleston, Davidson, George Washington, Georgetown, Harvard, Houston, Illinois, Illinois State, Iowa, Kansas State, La Salle, Memphis, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Penn State, Providence, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s, Siena, South Carolina, Stanford, Temple, Tulsa, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Washington, William & Mary, Yale

You’ll note that my top 25 teams don’t quite matchup with the list found in SB Nation’s 2016 College Basketball Preview. And that’s because I spent a good chunk of the later part of the offseason looking at the non-league schedules of all of the national contenders and some of them are just begging for an NIT invite.

This season’s edition of the ACC has the 2011 version of the Big East’s record bid total of 11 in its sights. However, thanks to some questionable non-conference scheduling by a few mid-tier conference teams (looking at you, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina State Wolfpack, and Virginia Tech Hokies), I’m not willing to go quite that far. Still, Duke leads a group of 10 ACC squads in this field, with the North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers, Louisville Cardinals, and Syracuse Orange looking like the Blue Devils’ most serious challengers for the conference title—or a protected seed at worst.

The Big 12 and Big Ten see their final 2016 bid total of seven apiece reduced by one here. Naturally, Kansas is a heavy early favorite in the Big 12 with none of the other five teams ranking in the top 16. On the other hand, the top of the Big Ten looks even, while lacking an overwhelming favorite. The third-seeded Wisconsin Badgers are the highest-seeded Big Ten team with the Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, and Purdue Boilermakers all just a line below.

Last season, the Big East sent five teams to the field of 68, and this projection sees a repeat—though the Creighton Bluejays replace the Providence Friars for 2017 (and the Marquette Golden Eagles aren’t far off). The SEC, which qualified three squads last time, and Pac-12, a seven-bid league back in March, also place five teams in this projection. The Arizona Wildcats join Oregon as a Pac-12 protected seed, while the Florida Gators and Kentucky represent the SEC in the top 16. The Big East also places a pair of teams on the top four lines—Villanova and the Xavier Musketeers—with the fifth-seeded Seton Hall Pirates knocking on the door.

Note that the eligibility of Arizona’s Allonzo Trier and the legal issues surrounding Xavier’s Myles Davis might limit those squads’ ceilings.

The Dayton Flyers, Rhode Island Rams, and Virginia Commonwealth Rams are the three Atlantic 10 teams, which would match last season’s disappointing total if it holds. Teams like the Davidson Wildcats, George Washington Colonials, and Richmond Spiders will aim to bump that number up. The American, a four-bid league back in March, sees its total halved, and that’s with the return of the SMU Mustangs to tournament eligibility. The Missouri Valley (Wichita State Shockers and Northern Iowa Panthers) and West Coast (Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels) are the final two multi-bid conferences in this first attempt. I wouldn’t feel too confident about the Gaels’ chances, however, as their non-conference slate isn’t much of an improvement over one that contributed to last year’s tourney snub, one that came despite a 27-5 record.

The journey to Phoenix begins today. I can’t wait to find out which teams I’ll be wrong about this time around.