Russell Westbrook’s greatness shouldn’t diminish Oscar Robertson

As you might have heard, Russell Westbrook is averaging a triple-double. He’s at 30.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game as of Wednesday. No one has averaged a triple-double this late in a season since Oscar Robertson, who is also the only player to ever average a triple-double for an entire season.

The Big O did it at age 23 in 1961-62. He also came incredibly close in four other seasons, missing the mark by one or fewer assists or rebounds per game. (He was exactly seven total assists from averaging a triple-double in his MVP 1963-64 season.)

That Westbrook is averaging a triple-double as December approaches is shocking. LeBron James, once thought to be Oscar’s true basketball heir, hasn’t come particularly close in his career, even in Miami where he shared the court with two fellow superstars. (Interestingly, LeBron is closer than he’s ever been this season with averages of 23.5 points, 9.3 assists, and 8.1 rebounds per game.)

Only one player other than Oscar has ever averaged 9 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists per game: Magic Johnson, who in 1981-82 put up 18.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game. No one has been as close as Westbrook in 35 years, and no one has done it in 55 years. This is indeed historic.

Of course, comparing statistics earned 55 years apart has some pitfalls. The NBA is incredibly different. It had nine teams back then and it has 30 now. Top players used to average well over 40 minutes per game where few play so many as 38 now. There were no three-pointers in 1962. The average team shot 43 percent from the field back then even without threes; teams are shooting 45 percent overall now.

And the pace! The NBA in 1962 was fast. The average game back then featured 126 possessions per team per game. Now? In 2016-17, the average is 97.

That means Oscar’s games had many more rebound opportunities, many more assist opportunities, and many more scoring opportunities. These pace differences come up now and then as fans compare players from different eras. Usually, the discussion of the gap serves to decrease appreciation for what the old timers did.

This is how that happens.

The analyst who wrote that and the prominent folks who shared it are trying to build up Westbrook’s feat. That’s fine.

But doing so in this fashion directly degrades what Oscar did, suggesting that Robertson’s gaudy numbers were largely a function of the volume of opportunities he had. That is not fine, and it’s frankly innumerate in a different sort of way than we’re used to seeing.

Might those extra possessions affect the game in other ways? Westbrook runs up and down the floor like a machine. Could he do that another dozen or two times per game? The norm was for superstars to play 40-plus minutes every night in the early ’60s, even at that crazed pace. The Big O averaged 44 minutes per game in ’62. Could Westbrook be this resilient and effective playing an extra nine minutes per game at this level, at that pace? On the surface, the extra possessions and extra minutes just look like more opportunities for numbers. You must also consider the deep and wide effects the extra possessions and minutes would have.

There is also generational context to consider. The argument goes that the pace was so fast in the ’60s that Oscar’s triple-double season or Wilt’s 50-ppg season are not so impressive when you look under the surface. After all, given the 1962 pace, Westbrook would have averaged 46-15-17! So where were all of the other triple-double seasons in the ’60s? Why didn’t more players average 50 a night?

We act as if getting 10 rebounds and 10 assists per game was so easy 55 years ago. Yet a single player managed to accomplish it once, and no one has matched it since.

The Big O was a total outlier in his time, just as Westbrook is today. Robertson didn’t just average a triple-double for the season for the only time in NBA history. He finished fifth in points per game and fourth in field goal percentage. He was superlative in every sense of the word, just as Westbrook is today. As we celebrate Westbrook’s accomplishments, let’s be sure not to step on those who made these accomplishments so special in the first place.

The points are of no concern; Russell could score 25 blindfolded in double gravity. The assists appear to be in the bag, too. Westbrook averaged double-digits last season with a dramatically smaller usage rate (due to Kevin Durant’s presence). Westbrook currently has the highest usage rate ever, and there’s no reason to think it will drop substantially. The assists shouldn’t be a problem because he has the ball in his hands just about every play and he’s either shooting, setting up a teammate to immediately shoot, or turning it over.

The rebounds are the problem. Westbrook crawled over the 10-rpg threshold Monday with an 18-board performance. He’d only hit that level once before in his career. In 19 games this season, he’s had double-digit rebounds 12 times. But Westbrook has four games with only five or six rebounds. Five or six rebounds from your point guard is an extraordinary tally, but that won’t cut it when you’re trying to average a triple-double over 82 games.

This is further compromised by the low likelihood of really huge rebound totals in individual games. Just twice this season has Westbrook had at least 15 in a game. (Which, again, is incredibly impressive. But needing a 15-rebound game for every five-rebound game is just really hard.)

Westbrook has never averaged more than 7.8 rebounds per game in a season. He’s setting career marks in both offensive and defensive rebounds per game, the latter by shocking margin of two per game. His defensive rebound percentage of 25, per basketball-reference.com, is seriously astounding. (That number would be good on a center and excellent on a power forward. Westbrook is a point guard who also happens to be running the entire offense almost unilaterally.)

Is it sustainable? There is some record of smaller players racking up huge rebound numbers. Westbrook is listed at 6’3. So was Fat Lever, who averaged 9 rebounds per game twice for the high-octane late ’80s Nuggets. The Celtics’ Avery Bradley, listed at 6’2, has a similar athletic profile to Westbrook (similar, not identical) and is at 7.9 rebounds per game this season. And entering this season, Westbrook had two of the top 10 rebounds per game averages among all players 6’3 or smaller in league history, per basketball-reference.com.

Players of Westbrook’s size have come somewhat close to averaging 10 rebounds per game before, and he is one of the two best rebounders of his size ever. His improvement in this category from an already-spectacular level is eye-poppingly impressive but not eye-rollingly unsustainable. We are beyond Small Sample Size Theater. Based on the data, Westbrook could keep it up.

There is also the small matter of intent. The Thunder aren’t going to win the championship. The team and Westbrook desperately want to make the playoffs, and I have a hunch the team and Westbrook desperately want to meet the Warriors in the playoffs. Much of that is up to fate. What isn’t up to fate: getting Westbrook, now Oklahoma’s favorite adopted son, the MVP and the scoring title and the assists title and the first triple-double season in 55 years.

We’re beginning to see Westbrook and the Thunder focus a little more on the numbers. That’s not going to decrease as we move into December, January, and beyond. As history gets nearer, the focus on getting the numbers needed will increase. Even now, just a month into the season, I’m skeptical Westbrook or coach Billy Donovan start a game without knowing exactly what line Russell needs to maintain his triple-double average.

That doesn’t mean Westbrook is going to hunt rebounds a la Ricky Davis, or pass up easy shots to get a chance at an assist a la Rajon Rondo. Westbrook hunts rebounds because of the magnetic relationship between he and the basketball, he gets assists because he’s a brilliant passer and deadly aggressive. But if Westbrook is a little low in the box score one night, expect him to get a few more minutes of garbage time. If he has his 30 points but only five assists in the fourth, expect him to a little less trigger-happy. It’s only human nature.

Chances to make history — like the Warriors’ quest for 73 last season — come about but so often. Westbrook and the Thunder should absolutely embrace this opportunity. This intent will help Westbrook grab the extra rebounds that he might not naturally collect if history weren’t at stake. We must consider that when weighing Westbrook’s chances.

Here’s to hoping Westbrook does indeed make history. The chance to witness unbelievable feats is one of the best parts of watching sports. Let’s just be sure that this historic chase doesn’t cheapen the historic accomplishments of decades past. Westbrook is bringing Oscar’s name back into the common parlance. We should use this opportunity to celebrate basketball history, not dismiss it.