NBA Reality Index: Don’t blame Anthony Davis for the Pelicans’ problems

Welcome to the debut of a new weekly column, the NBA Reality Index, where we put a handful of NBA matters under the microscope to consider just how legitimate they are. (If you decide to call it Well Actually: The Column, just know you’ll make me cry.) This week, we dive in to assess how bullish we should be about early results for the Pelicans, Hornets, Thunder, and Timberwolves.

The Pelicans dropped to 0-8 on Tuesday, falling in Sacramento 102-94. They aren’t this bad: of their eight losses, two have come against the Warriors with another against the Spurs. They have two overtime defeats, and have been way more competitive at home.

But New Orleans is right on the path they followed a year ago, and we know how that ended. The Pelicans were among the worst teams in the league, Anthony Davis got snubbed for the All-NBA Third Team, and thus denied a Rose Rule bonus.

There should have been more sympathy for Davis’ plight in 2015-16, and there should be a heavy dose now. The defensive remaking of the Pelicans through free agency has materialized somewhat. New Orleans is league average on that end right now. But the offense, which lost Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson in free agency and Jrue Holiday to his heart-rending family situation, is in the tank.

Davis puts up massive numbers — 31 points per game on 50 percent shooting — despite facing constant double- and frequent triple-teams. The Warriors even threw five guys at him earlier this week.

E’Twaun Moore is the team’s No. 2 scorer. That’s ... not a good sign. Moore and Solomon Hill were the big free agent pick-ups. They figured to improve New Orleans’ defensive stoutness, and they have. But until Holiday arrives, there’s simply not enough offense to ease the load on Davis and let the Pelicans be great. Those halcyon days of 2014-15 seem so far away.

Even though the Pelicans suffered a maelstrom of injuries last season, Davis shouldered a good deal of blame for New Orleans’ awful season. This time around, let’s fully grasp what he’s dealing with. It’s not his fault that there isn’t a single healthy plus scorer on the roster, that there is no shooting and no pressure release valve. It’s not The Brow’s fault the Pelicans are 0-8. They are 0-8 in spite of him.

REALITY INDEX: As real as the pit in my stomach the entirety of Tuesday night and for the foreseeable future.

So much for that preseason chatter pegging the Minnesota Timberwolves to the playoff race, right? Minnesota is 1-5 after losing to the Nets on Tuesday, and the budding excellence of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins has been slow to materialize.

But all is not lost. The Wolves aren’t 1-5 bad. They’ve played four road games, and while their schedule hasn’t been all that daunting (three games against 2015-16 playoff squads), it hasn’t been a cakewalk. If Minnesota was a playoff team, you’d expect them to beat Denver at home, Brooklyn on the road, and probably edge Sacramento on the road. But the Kings are better than believed, Denver’s no slouch, and the Nets are frisky.

The bigger issue is Ricky Rubio’s injury. Minnesota’s results have been noticeably worse since losing him in Game 2, especially on defense. Kris Dunn is a rookie point guard in every sense of the word, and Tyus Jones is a steep drop-off from Rubio in extended minutes. The good news is that Rubio may practice later this week. Meanwhile, Tom Thibodeau will continue to wrest his No. 19-ranked defense into shape.

Those playoff prognostications are going to be tough to meet, especially if Rubio’s trouble lingers. But the Timberwolves aren’t this bad, either.

REALITY INDEX: In the neighborhood of ice dragons.

The Hornets are sitting pretty at 5-1, and look like the best team out of that sub-Cavaliers pack in the East. A cupcake schedule has helped, and it’s worth noting that the Hornets did lose to the best team they’ve faced (the Celtics). But these Hornets look almost exactly like the 2015-16 Hornets. Given some particular concerns heading into the season, that’s a win.

Remember: the Hornets won 48 games last season. Vegas had them at 39.5 in the offseason. That’s a huge drop. Why? The bench got worse without Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson. Nicolas Batum signed a huge contract after a career season. There was no splashy addition. Most folks felt Charlotte overachieved in 2015-16. That adds up to a big chunk of healthy skepticism.

As it turns out, the famed Steve Clifford defense is as suffocating as ever, especially with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist healthy. And it turns out that Kemba Walker still had room to improve: he’s averaging 24 points per game on 49 percent shooting. That probably won’t last, but the excellent production from the lead guard is papering over a slow start from Marvin Williams and some rough shooting from Batum.

We have seen repeatedly in recent years that an elite defense and an average-or-better offense can get you deep into the playoffs. Look at the early ‘10s Celtics, Bulls, and Pacers. The Hornets have built that type of squad. They’re going to win a ton of games and if the offense can keep up this pace, Charlotte might win its first playoff series since 2002.

REALITY INDEX: Those Game of Thrones leaks, apparently.

The Thunder are 6-1, tied for the best record in the league. But two things stick out. The first is that OKC has the No. 2 defense in the NBA. Is that real? Steven Adams is a beast, Andre Roberson is a strong wing stopper, and Victor Oladipo and Russell Westbrook compose the most athletic backcourt in the league. But I don’t buy it. Last year with Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and all of the central defenders except for Oladipo, the Thunder finished No. 13 in defense. I think that’s probably an upside target for this OKC team over the long-term.

Meanwhile, the Thunder’s offense has been mediocre (currently No. 23 in the NBA), which is somewhat to be expected given the loss of Durant and Ibaka. I suspect the Thunder end up around No. 10 or so on offense by the end of the season, but the defense is sure to fall off.

Still, it could take a while. The Thunder’s schedule gets sticky in December and brutal in January (including a stretch that features the Warriors, Clippers, Jazz, Spurs, and Cavaliers ... on the road ... over 15 days). So enjoy this now. It’s probably not going to last.

REALITY INDEX: Doc McStuffins’ magical stethoscope.