Do Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside fit into the Heat’s future?

Pat Riley is never caught unprepared, which is what made the 2014 NBA offseason so amazing and what makes 2016 so intriguing for the Miami Heat. In 2014, LeBron James famously left South Beach, leaving Riley with few options other than retaining his other stars, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, and building around them. In 2015, Riley began plotting the team’s future by maneuvering for Goran Dragic, stealing Justise Winslow and preserving 2016 salary cap space. That included a short deal for the aging Wade.

Approaching Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, Miami sits in the East No. 5 slot -- not bad, but not where the team expected itself to be at this point. Wade’s been Wade, but Dragic has been a seemingly poor fit. Winslow is everything the Heat imagined he would be (even as a rookie) but the Hassan Whiteside hourglass is losing sand fast. Chris Bosh remains an All-Star caliber big man, but old concerns have reared their ugly head again as he’s been diagnosed with blood clotting in his calf. His status is uncertain as Miami approaches the stretch run.

Wade and Whiteside are free agents in July, and so is Kevin Durant. Riley once before convinced a superstar to make Miami his home, beating out all of the other circling sharks. You must know he has a plan to do it again.

That doesn’t mean it will work -- Durant’s a black box in terms of intentions -- but you know Riley has a plan. Right?

Trading Whiteside is incredibly tricky. He has good value as a shot-blocking hero who can finish around the rim and rebound. He has three triple-doubles with blocks this season, plus one last season. There have only been five total by non-Whiteside players in the last eight years. Whiteside is also perhaps the worst passer the league has seen in a decade, he has no touch outside of five feet and there’s some reason to believe his box score contribution is overstating his actual impact. He’s also a bit of a strange bird. An enigma, if you will.

He’s going to get back huge money this summer because centers still don’t grow on trees, because he’s young and because the numbers are so alluring. The problem is that Miami doesn’t have his Bird rights due to his weird contract situation. Furthermore, because Miami doesn’t have Bird rights on Whiteside, no team that trades for him can acquire Bird rights. That means that the incumbent team won’t have any contractual advantage to signing Whiteside in the summer -- just sentiment and familiarity -- and that they’ll have to use salary cap space to sign him.

Add in that Whiteside is earning a pittance this season, which makes finding a balanced trade difficult. So, chances are Whiteside stays in South Beach through the end of the season.

Then what?

Some wild team is going to throw wild money at Whiteside. Riley must be thinking bigger: Dwight Howard, Al Horford, DeMarcus Cousins (who will not be a free agent, but hey you never know). That’s what drives all this trade talk around Whiteside. You can’t imagine Riley paying to keep him this summer, and you can’t imagine Riley letting such a nice asset escape without compensation. It’s a pickle.

In the 326 minutes in which Dragic has played without Wade on the court, the Heat are +79. That’s +11 per 48 minutes, which is really damn good. The Heat are completely average with a Wade-Dragic backcourt, and but darn good when Dragic is on the court without Wade.

Which makes one wonder ...

Is this really a Wade problem in disguise? As noted, the Heat are basically break even in more than 1,000 minutes in which Dragic and Wade share the court. As noted, the Heat are really good in those minutes where Dragic’s out there and Wade’s on the bench. What about when Dragic sits and Wade’s on the floor? In those 417 minutes, Miami is ... -67, or -7 per 48 minutes.

Welp.

Wade’s box score numbers looks better than those of Dragic, but the plus-minus numbers indicate Dragic has had a huge positive impact while Wade’s had a serious negative impact. Both players have seen a similar volume of minutes with and without Bosh this season, and both Dragic and Wade have had roughly equal time with Winslow, who has been something of a plus-minus star.

Comparing players’ plus-minus numbers is an exercise often rife with pitfalls. But if there were ever a time where a basic comparison would seem fair, it’d be this: two starters who get equal time with their team’s best big man and against bench units. One is seeing team success when he’s out there alone. The other isn’t. The team isn’t anything remotely special when they play together.

The Heat can’t trade Wade, can they?

Can they?

Wade’s a free agent in July. The Heat traded three picks, including an unprotected future first, to get Dragic. Then they signed him to a monster contract. Dragic is 29. Wade is 34. Dragic is having a positive on-court impact despite mediocre box-score stats. Wade’s having a negative on-court impact despite good box score stats. Dragic costs about $17 million per season. Wade took a pay cut this year, but will be asking for something comparable to or more than what Dragic makes.

On paper, you look at trading Wade. The problem is that Wade is a Miami legend. He’s a three-time champion, the best full-career Heatian ever and a wonderful ambassador for the team. He’s one of the best players of his generation, and he’s got plenty still left in him.

Pat Riley understands loyalty, right? He understands how much tumult a Dwyane Wade trade would create, how it’d impugn the legacy of this franchise. He knows the stakes. Riley also knows how tough it will be to justify keeping Wade this summer. It’s also not as if Riley is afraid of looking like a villain. Ask Stan Van Gundy. Ask the Toronto Raptors circa 2005.

Yes, Pat Riley knows the stakes, and he always has a plan. The only question is whether it will unfold on Thursday or in July. But it’s coming, whatever it is. Right?

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