Six months ago, this rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals would have been welcomed with the excitement of the entire NBA. After all, the Houston Rockets were clearly overmatched last May, but many expected them to grow and improve from their No. 2 finish in the West and really challenge the Golden State Warriors this year. How things have changed.
Warriors vs. Rockets, NBA playoffs 2016: Golden State’s rematch against Houston will only make us sad
Last year, the Rockets played the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. This year’s first-round rematch will just be a sad reenactment of that.
Not only did the Rockets not improve, but they steadily regressed. For all its talent, Houston doesn't have a clue how to turn it into winning basketball. They mess around for three quarters then hope James Harden can bail them out, which he did just frequently enough for them to clinch a playoff spot on the season's final day. But the effort isn't there consistently, and a midseason coach firing didn't change that. J.B. Bickerstaff has been completely overwhelmed in his interim situation, making a bad situation worse. All of Houston's promise from last year is seemingly still there ... but it's time to stop pretending it'll show up magically. After 82 games, it's safe to say it won't.
Against another team, maybe you could hold onto that hope for another week. Not the Warriors. Golden State won 73 games and that doesn't happen unless you're cutthroat assassins. Everyone knows how incredible Stephen Curry was this season, but try to comprehend the stats he ended the year averaging: 30.1 points, nearly seven assists, five rebounds, 50.4 percent from the field, 45.4 percent from behind the three-point line and FOUR HUNDRED made three-pointers when no one in NBA history had ever hit 300.
The Warriors’ quest for basketball perfection is always worth watching, but the Rockets aren’t a great test. Golden State is fully healthy entering the postseason and they know that 73 wins -- fairly or not -- will turn into a punchline if they fail to win the championship. We had so much hope for Houston and for this series six months ago, but barring a miracle, all that hope will all go unrealized.
The matchup
- Warriors (73-9, expected record 65-17) vs. Rockets (41-41, expected record 42-40)
- Warriors offensive efficiency: 114.5 (1st) | Rockets offensive efficiency: 108.3 (7th)
- Warriors defensive efficiency: 103.8 (5th) | Rockets defensive efficiency: 108.1 (21st)
- Season series: Warriors 3-0
Key matchup: Stephen Curry vs. James Harden
Last season’s heated MVP debate between these two feels like it happened years ago. There was a legitimate argument then, back when Curry was incredible but still operating within somewhat recognizable boundaries, and when Harden was the singular driving force behind Houston’s surprising push for the No. 2 seed. Curry ultimately earned his trophy, but a vote for Harden was justified.
Because of the Rockets’ struggles, it’s been easy to overlook that Harden’s been pretty damn good for three-fourths of this season, too. He averaged 29 points this year and routinely dropped 40-point outings during the season’s second half, often times keeping the Rockets afloat in games they otherwise would have blown.
Still, Harden set an NBA record for turnovers and started the season out of shape. His brilliance doesn’t come close to matching Curry’s. The matchup between last year’s MVP and runner-up should be exhilarating for stretches when the two light up in scoring binges that few in the NBA can match, but one player holds a clear advantage, and nothing’s going to change that.
X factor: How much money will Dwight Howard earn?
Howard will be a free agent this summer and it sounds clear that he will not be returning to Houston. The former All-NBA center has been mostly healthy this season, but his play was much more inconsistent. Still, even in a four-game sweep, Howard’s value will rise or fall based on what he does against Golden State. Front offices can’t help but be impacted by what a player does on a visible public stage, and certainly, public opinion affects the situation, too.
Even if Howard averages 20 points and 15 rebounds, it’s unlikely the Rockets could steal more than a game. But a series like that from him could dramatically change the free agency market and potentially sway a team considering his demands for max money, which would start around $30 million per year.
Predictions
Ziller | Flannery | Prada | Cato | Golden State of Mind | The Dream Shake |
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Schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Sat., April 16, Oracle Arena, Oakland, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Game 2: Mon., April 18, Oracle Arena, Oakland, 10:30 p.m. (TNT)
Game 3: Thurs., April 21, Toyota Center, Houston, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
Game 4: Sun., April 24, Toyota Center, Houston, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Game 5 (if necessary): Wed., April 27, Oracle Arena, Oakland, TBD.
Game 6 (if necessary): Fri., April 29, Toyota Center, Houston, TBD.
Game 7 (if necessary): Sun., May 1, Oracle Arena, Oakland, TBD.
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