The 2016 NBA playoffs begin Saturday. Here are 45 predictions for what will happen in the 15 series to come.
45 bold (and not so bold) predictions for the 2016 NBA playoffs
Revealing a bunch of picks and predictions for each playoff series, with a few surprises along the way.
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FIRST ROUND
East
1. In terms of head coaching experience, there's no greater gap in the first round than Stan Van Gundy vs. Tyronn Lue. In fact, to have a coach with only 41 games under his belt to enter the playoffs with overwhelming odds to make the Finals is rare. SVG is a master at the art of shaping a game and controlling crunch time. While that disparity in lead experience is wide, Lue has the advantage of the smartest player of his generation, LeBron James. Detroit fans know all about LeBron in the playoffs. Because of the King's presence, the coaching experience gap won't matter nearly as much as it should. (We'll discuss this idea again in the West.)
2.Andre Drummond has had a really weird season as he continues to struggle to earn Van Gundy’s complete trust. Paul Flannery dove into this in a midseason Sunday Shootaround that’s worth revisiting. Based on talent and production, Drummond should be an All-NBA no-brainer and should give Cleveland’s undersized frontcourt (with Tristan Thompson starting at center) nightmares. But Drummond’s uneven spurts of true all-out effort and his still-developing skillset make it more likely that Cleveland keeps him in relative check. And if he does get going, there’s always the hacking ...
3. Detroit peels off one game on the back of a gaudy Drummond rebound total, an off night for LeBron, a crazy performance from Reggie Jackson and hell, maybe an early Cleveland meltdown. But the Cavaliers otherwise roll to a 4-1 gentleman’s sweep.
4. Paul George fell off his MVP ballot pace sometime around midseason. That's not terribly surprising given that he played in only a token number of games last season. Bouncing back at that level with that huge a role is tough to keep up. But something that's never faltered is his defense. He's the best wing/forward defender not named Draymond or Kawhi. And if he marks DeMar DeRozan for any length of time -- something we'd expect, given how big a role DeRozan plays in Toronto's offense -- it's going to be hard for the Raptors All-Star to score. PG-13 doesn't foul, and will cut off the lanes DeRozan typically uses to fly into the paint. Shutting those down forces DeRozan to shoot, which is not his strong suit. So unless Frank Vogel conserves George's energy on defense because he's so necessary on offense, this might not be DeRozan's best series.
5. I don't know if Norman Powell is going to get a chance to play much. Teams tighten up their rotations in the playoffs. But if Powell does get out there? This would be the series to do it. And woo, he is going to win some fans outside Canada. (Canada already knows all about Norm.) Can you believe Masai Ujiri got Powell and a 2017 first for Greivis Vasquez?
6. Raptors in 5. Monta Ellis is not a great fit for this Indiana team, and there’s not enough help for Paul George ... yet. Once Myles Turner comes around, once Larry Bird explores free agency more fully and once they add a couple more mid-first picks, we’ll be there.
7. It's Kemba time! After a really nice season that will earn him lots of Most Improved Player ballot slots, Kemba Walker has a chance to get Charlotte out of the first round for the first time in their modern era. Kemba's actually the perfect type of scorer to attack Miami's top-10 defense. He's a probing guard that doesn't rely wholly on getting fouls and layups. More than a third of Kemba's shots are threes, and he takes another third of them in the mid-range. If he can get open off of the pick or dribble, he's happy to pull up. That and the fact that he's a small guard unlikely to see Justise Winslow across from him means Walker can be very successful against the Heat.
8. Perhaps the more intriguing matchup is Miami's okay offense against a really strong Charlotte defense. With Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Walker and a full cast of big men, Steve Clifford has managed to squeeze a lot out of this unit. Dwyane Wade is a master at exploiting weaknesses, though, and Goran Dragic is among the best pick-and-roll attackers despite not being nearly as athletic as some of the other lead guards in the league. Chris Bosh's range and post ability would really help and it's unclear he'll be available at all. You can't count on Hassan Whiteside cleaning up the offensive glass because Charlotte was the best defensive rebounding team in the league this season. But Whiteside's roll game is solid and could see some daylight.
9. This was the toughest first-round series for me to pick, but I’m going Charlotte in six. I think Wade will have a big series but Walker’s will be bigger, and the more well-rounded Charlotte team will advance.
10. Welcome to the second lowest-scoring series of the first round. (Spurs-Grizzlies can't be topped! Or, er, bottomed?) These two teams bring killer defenses, but only one of the offenses has punch and that belongs to Boston. The Hawks finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in offense this season, a nod to Kyle Korver's falloff and the lack of results out of the point guard position. Atlanta's offense has been much better of late, but it's still not great. Going against a top defense like Boston, a rare team that smothered the Warriors? The Hawks are going to struggle to score.
11. Boston has an above-average offense, but the Hawks deter everything that comes at them. That makes Isaiah Thomas ultra important. We know he’s a great lead scorer and an expert dribble-driver with all the tricks to get the ball up at the rim. But you don’t beat a defense like this one-on-one unless you’re Steph Curry. And Isaiah is not Steph. So he’ll need to make repeated sharp passes off the drive to get teammates open looks, and Boston really needs to attack in transition to avoid facing the halfcourt maestros, Paul Millsap and Al Horford.
12. Okay, I lied about Miami-Charlotte being the toughest to pick. It ties with this one. But I think Boston’s offense stands a slightly better chance against Atlanta’s defense than the Hawks’ offense stands against the Celtics’ defense. Unless Korver blows up or we get Playoff Teague (certainly possible!), I don’t see the Hawks scoring enough to win four games. But this is a tight series, so I’ll go Boston in seven.
West
Warriors (1) vs. Rockets (8)
13. James Harden is going to get put into an embarrassing Vine. In some respects, I don't blame him. He is the entire Houston offense. One man can only do so much. But he needs a branding expert to help him figure out how to defend without embarrassing himself. Start faking hamstring pulls five times a game or something. Please.
14. Concerned about a letdown after 73 wins? Don’t be. The Warriors can conjure motivation out of thin air. Golden State is already upset about playing Saturday afternoon instead of Sunday! They are going to beat the brakes off of Houston four times and rest up for Round 2.
15. This is a nightmare match-up for Dwight Howard as he enters free agency. Draymond Green will absolutely try to bully him, Andrew Bogut will try to goad him and J.B. Bickerstaff might need to sit him for long stretches. How unfortunate, to play your final games of a contract year against a team whose existence defines your declining value!
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Spurs (2) vs. Grizzlies (7)
16. The Grizzlies will break 90 points once. The Spurs will have like 120 in that game.
17. Boban Marjanovic, Jonathan Simmons and Kyle Anderson are going to get lots of playoff shine. But hey, so are Xavier Munford, JaMychael Green and P.J. Hairston!
18. Worst ratings of the playoffs. Spurs in 4. Let’s stop talking about this series, it’s making me sad.
19. Here's the other first-round series with a massive coaching experience gap. Except Billy Donovan has tons of head coaching experience, unlike Ty Lue, and of course has coached in high-pressure situations. He's been here. So while I preach the gospel of Rick Carlisle as fluently as anyone, I don't think Donovan is green enough to make the Mavericks' sideline advantage so great that it can bridge the talent gap, which is massive.
20. Dirk Nowitzki is going to have at least one of those games at home, and the Mavericks are absolutely peeling a win off of the Thunder. I don’t think they can get two, but it’s plausible. No one ever expects or knows what to do with J.J. Barea, and somehow Deron Williams and Raymond Felton look like credible NBA starter-level players right now. It’s amazing. But the Thunder are going to win this series, and probably in five.
21. Salah Mejri is going to deeply regret talking trash about Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Clippers (4) vs. Blazers (5)
22. This is seen as the most competitive first-round series in the West. This is primarily because all of the other series are badly one-sided. While Portland is much better than the lower three West seeds, the Clippers are super good and should prove as much in this series. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are a wonderful 1-2 offensive punch that in no way, shape or form has a shot at defending Chris Paul or J.J. Redick. So at best, barring a 50-point explosion from Dame, you’re looking at playing the L.A. backcourt to a draw or a narrow win. I think Portland will be able to do that.
23. But this is a series in which DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin can feast. Portland’s defense is fully mediocre, and there’s no chance Noah Vonleh and Mason Plumlee can slow down those L.A. bigs. Ed Davis is going to need to play starter minutes, and Al-Farouq Aminu is probably going to need to focus on Griffin. But with a point guard as brilliant as CP3 running the show, there’s just no chance Portland can stop this attack.
24. Clippers in 5, with one big Dame game preventing a sweep and at least a couple other games coming down to the wire.
SECOND ROUND
East
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
25. Kevin Love will avoid getting into rebounding battles with Kelly Olynyk. Matthew Dellavedova will absolutely NOT avoid getting into some Celtics to set the tone. J.R. Smith will keep his hands to himself. This has a high potential for chippiness, but the coaches should be able to distract the players from getting too physical. Except Dellavedova. It’s in his bones to be physical.
26. There’s going to be lots of talk about Jae Crowder matching up on LeBron, and Crowder may actually do a solid job slowing down King James. But LeBron is on a roll right now and he loves killing Boston.
27. Cavaliers in five. Never forget that Cleveland swept this Boston team a year ago. The Celtics haven’t added much and, to be honest, were just as good last season after getting Isaiah as they were this year. Cleveland’s just better.
Raptors vs. Hornets
28. The Bismack Biymobo series! It'll be really interesting, if this is in fact the series, to see how Biyombo manages to attack the offensive glass against such a solid boarding team. I actually think that due to Charlotte's lack of interior scoring, this is a great opportunity for Dwane Casey to leave his big men on the bench and try out lots of DeMarre Carroll at power forward (if he can go) and Patrick Patterson at center.
29. Kyle Lowry is going to win most one-on-one battles, and he's better than Kemba. You want low-post K-Low? This is the series for lots of low post K-Low.
30. Raptors in five. Toronto is really damn good, and Charlotte is a good matchup. A series against Miami could go a bit more sideways thanks to Wade.
West
Warriors vs. Clippers
31. Here's my regular reminder that the Clippers are the last team to beat the Warriors in the playoff series. That was in the Mark Jackson era, though, before Draymond Green blossomed into a superstar. As we all know, Draymond made the Dubs into something else entirely. He'll be the dominant story in this series.
32. Which isn’t to say Blake Griffin can be bowled over. Except, well, he’s shown he can, at least a little bit. Ask Memphis. Griffin has had a completely weird and bad season. He looked the part of top-five player before getting injured; before he could come back and remind us of his excellence, he broke his hand punching a co-worker. He just got back into action two weeks ago; two weeks from now, you want him to go up against Draymond? Yikes. I think this is a bad situation for Griffin to be walking into, and I think Green is going to outplay him despite Griffin being a stronger basketball talent.
33. Warriors in six. CP3 is that good. Steph is that much better.
Spurs vs. Thunder
34. The most highly-anticipated second round series of the last few years. Who will win the Kevin Durant-Kawhi Leonard battle? That's easy: we all win. We all win. But seriously, this has to be a draw. Durant will get his points on switches, in transition and one-on-one against Kawhi at a lower rate than is typical for KD. But he'll get his points. Meanwhile, Kawhi will hold Durant to a below-average shooting percentage and get some impossible steals. We all win. They all win.
35. Russell Westbrook is so much better than Tony Parker right now that it's a little scary. But San Antonio's team defense is monstrous, and between Kawhi, Tim Duncan, Danny Green and the rest, Westbrook will be well-contained. I mean, he's still RUSSELL WESTBROOK. He'll drop your jaw a dozen times. But despite the Parker mismatch, the Spurs will find ways to limit his efficiency as much as possible.
36. Spurs in seven with at least one foundation-shaking fourth quarter collapse for the Thunder and one counterintuitive clutch close-out for KD and Russ.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Cavaliers vs. Raptors
37. Toronto is going to be ultra-hyped for this, and the Raptors will make it a series. Toronto went 2-1 vs. Cleveland during the regular season and the Lowry-Kyrie pairing must be a source of concern for the Cavaliers. Irving tries on defense, but he doesn’t have the nose for stopping physical, aggressive guards like K-Low. I think Lowry gets the better of Irving here.
38. This is a huge series for Love. The Raptors don’t have the Draymond-type big man who can make Love’s life miserable on defense, and Love is a much more potent offensive weapon than any Toronto big. If Lue and LeBron can find a way to let Love feast against Toronto, that could boost his confidence heading into a prospective Finals series. That could be huge.
39. Cavaliers in five. No offense to Toronto, but the Raptors weren’t facing this LeBron during the regular season, and unless Carroll is as good as new (he’s not), they don’t have a chance of slowing him down.
Warriors vs. Spurs
40. The series we’re all really waiting for. The Spurs should be more worn out due to the Thunder battle, but Popovich has been excellent about rest despite the gaudy record. Likewise, the Warriors are in good physical shape going in and shouldn’t face a seven-game series before this round. Both teams are as healthy as you can be at this point. As such, and despite the Warriors’ big win last week in San Antonio, we’re going to get a classic series here.
41. Tim Duncan doesn't have a place in this series. He's still a damn fine defender, and that bank shot will never die. But he's not fleet enough at this point to really roll off screens or help in transition, he's not a deep shooter who stretches the floor and he's highly unlikely to make the Warriors pay for playing small on the offensive glass. You're at a huge risk if you switch everything and Golden State runs a 1-5 or 2-5 pick and roll. Duncan's a legend and he's still an above-average NBA starting center. But he's not all that useful against the Warriors. Based on Duncan's use in the regular season series, I sense Gregg Popovich knows this.
42. Warriors in seven bitter battles. Kawhi is but one man, and the combo of Steph, Klay Thompson and Draymond on offense is just too much for Leonard's teammates to handle, even with the best defender in the league sprinting all over the place to plug holes.
Cavaliers vs. Warriors
43. Remember this: the Cavaliers were up 2-1 on Golden State without Kevin Love and having Kyrie Irving for only Game 1. Remember that against a Matthew Dellavedova-Tristan Thompson defense, Curry wasn’t even really considered for Finals MVP. Remember that LeBron completely dominated every Warriors defender but Andre Iguodala. Remember that Iguodala just came back from a long injury layoff, and that Iguodala is 32 years old. Remember that while Iguodala held LeBron to poor shooting numbers in the Finals, LeBron has been shooting poorly most of this season and he’s still a legitimate MVP candidate (who will likely finish third or fourth).
44. One reason to pick the Warriors in a short series? Curry wasn’t great a year ago, and all those jitters that were evident early in that series are going to be nonexistent this time around. Curry has grown into the role of Best In The World. He’s comfortable there and no disrupted routine or amount of cameras will shake him now. He’s going to have a big series, especially when Kyrie is trying (in vain) to slow him.
45. Yet! Cleveland in seven. Yep, winning the title in Oakland. Love's uselessness against the Warriors is greatly overstated. No, he's not able to effectively defend the Steph-Dray pick-and-roll. Neither is anyone else on the planet! What Love can do is drag Green or Bogut away from the lanes that LeBron and Kyrie want to probe. Green doesn't dare collapse in. Channing Frye is the other factor here: LeBron loves hitting him off the dribble in the corner, and Bogut or Festus Ezeli won't be effective on defense (where they are super effective) if they are hanging close to Frye on the baseline or cheating in. If Kyrie makes smart passes, if LeBron recaptures his jumper a little bit and if Love plays his ass off on defense to just slow Golden State a little, the Cavaliers can win this.
Will they? We’ll see.
